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Roger J Smith

December 2014 CET forecasts (start of 2014/15 contest year)

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CET averages and extremes

12.9 ... warmest daily mean, 12th 1994

8.1 ... warmest Decembers 1834 and 1974
7.7 ... third warmest 1852

 

6.3 ... Dec 2013

5.1 ... average for 1971-2000

4.8 ... Dec 2012
4.7 ... average for 1961-90
4.6 ... average for 1981-2010, also 1901-2000
4.5 ... average for 2001-2013
4.1 ... average for 1659-2013
4.0 ... average for 1801-1900
3.9 ... average for 1701-1800
3.4 ... average for 1659-1700

-0.5 ... third coldest 1676
-0.7 ... second coldest 2010
-0.8 ... coldest December 1890

-10.8 ... lowest daily mean 25th 1796

_______________________________________________

 

Enter your forecast for Dec 2014 in this thread.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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CET averages and extremes

12.9 ... warmest daily mean, 12th 1994

8.1 ... warmest Decembers 1834 and 1974

7.7 ... third warmest 1852

6.3 ... Dec 2013

5.1 ... average for 1971-2000

4.8 ... Dec 2012

4.7 ... average for 1961-90

4.6 ... average for 1981-2010, also 1901-2000

4.5 ... average for 2001-2013

4.1 ... average for 1659-2013

4.0 ... average for 1801-1900

3.9 ... average for 1701-1800

3.4 ... average for 1659-1700

-0.5 ... third coldest 1676

-0.7 ... second coldest 2010

-0.8 ... coldest December 1890

-10.8 ... lowest daily mean 25th 1796

_______________________________________________

Enter your forecast for Dec 2014 in this thread.

There is one number missing on that list: 5.9C

Mentioned this before in past December CETs threads but there has never been a 5.9C CET for that month.

I wonder if this is the nearest value to a long term average that has never been recorded?

Think about it, two 8.1Cs have been recorded for December which is at least 3.0C above the December long term average and yet a value between 1C and 2C above the long term average has never been recorded. Against, the 1971-2000 average, it is only 0.8C above. A strange stats quirk,

Edited by Weather-history
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4.5 please.

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3.3C :)

Increasingly becoming colder albeit drier as we near the mid part of the month. White Christmas this year wouldn't discount? With the warming projected in the stratosphere, volatile output.

post-19153-0-08507100-1416662377_thumb.j

Edited by Daniel*
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5.5C

My winter forecast went wet with temperatures near or slightly above average. Expect deep Atlantic troughing regularly encroaching on the UK.

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A month of two halves with no mild dominating in either, the second half becoming increasingly colder with time, with the CET coming in around the 61-90 values of 4.7c.

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There's only a sample of six years going back to 1700 to choose from in winters where both the August CET was below 15C and the November was above 8C.

I'll go for the average December those years have produced being 3.6C

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I think I'll hold fire in the hope that, this time next week, there's a clearer indication of how things'll pan out. The now, it all looks as clear as mud!

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