Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[Barry12]

ECM has also moved towards the GFS output this evening and has the ridge of warmer uppers hitting the UK next weekend as well:

 

ECM0-144-3.GIF  ECM1-144-17.GIFECM0-168-4.GIFECM0-192-2.GIF

 

Do we not get a North-Easterly at day 9 and 10 on the ECM? 

Edited November 16, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove impolite remark.

[SMU]

Would someone kindly post these 2 links

weatherbell model suite - covering the t2M anomalies over europe & NH that knocker posts

Also the ecm eps day 10-15 ens means that sk posts.

Nice ECM... Day 10 & 11 would feel very cold & a shock to the system as the cold feeds in from the east-

[IDO]

Do we not get a North-Easterly at day 9 and 10 on the ECM?.

 

The GFS and GEM support the warm uppers for next weekend so that looks like a good chance of verifying and if it does I suspect November will be the warmest month of the year on the CET anomaly, with a week to go. As for D9-10 from the ECM, I am sure you know my thoughts on those. Heres a clue; the last three runs have had a Greenland HIGH, UK HIGH and a Scandi HIGH.

Edited November 16, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove deleted quote.

[Man With Beard]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif - Hot Plume of air next weekend on ECM 12Z, I can bet you though it will not feel anything like it looks

Wind strength will be key. A brisk wind and 17C not unthinkable. Light winds, and you may not even get 10C due to murkiness and fog. 

Edited November 16, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove double quoted post.

[IDO]

Would someone kindly post these 2 links

weatherbell model suite - covering the t2M anomalies over europe & NH that knocker posts

Also the ecm eps day 10-15 ens means that sk posts.

Nice ECM... Day 10 & 11 would feel very cold & a shock to the system as the cold feeds in from the east-

 

I think they are pay per view.

 

GEM spotted the warm plume first for next weekend and I have noted their high propensity to spot a synoptic, though they do tend to initially over egg it. 

Edited November 16, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS and GEM support the warm uppers for next weekend so that looks like a good chance of verifying and if it does I suspect November will be the warmest month of the year on the CET anomaly, with a week to go. As for D9-10 from the ECM, I am sure you know my thoughts on those. Heres a clue; the last three runs have had a Greenland HIGH, UK HIGH and a Scandi HIGH.

 

Yes i'm dreaming, Another warm Month on the cards looking at the Models, How long can this continue for.. 

[Barry12]

The GFS and GEM support the warm uppers for next weekend so that looks like a good chance of verifying and if it does I suspect November will be the warmest month of the year on the CET anomaly, with a week to go. As for D9-10 from the ECM, I am sure you know my thoughts on those. Heres a clue; the last three runs have had a Greenland HIGH, UK HIGH and a Scandi HIGH.

 

You post day 16 GFS charts though, surely those are far worse?

 

Day 16 on the GFS yesterday:

 

 

Day 16 today:

 

Edited November 16, 2014 by Barry95

[bluearmy]

The 10-/15 day ens mean ECM anomoly chart will be ok. Not sure can see T2 ex ECM. Post it later - around 9pm it's out

[SMU]

The GFS and GEM support the warm uppers for next weekend so that looks like a good chance of verifying and if it does I suspect November will be the warmest month of the year on the CET anomaly, with a week to go. As for D9-10 from the ECM, I am sure you know my thoughts on those. Heres a clue; the last three runs have had a Greenland HIGH, UK HIGH and a Scandi HIGH.

No uk highs in the last 3 runs....

Not withstanding the fact that you over scrutinizing day 10 charts, the ECM has been consistent in showing a high pressure ridging close to western Norway

Maybe you punt up what the GFS had for comparison .....

Actually here they are

 

Iceland high 12z 15th

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014111512-0-240.png?12

 

Uk high 00z 16th

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014111600-0-240.png?0

 

Scandi high 12z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014111612-0-240.png?12

 

so similar movements....

 

 

just for comparison the woeful 06z GFS- another example of how pony it is-

06z today

Flat

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014111606-0-240.png?6

06z yesterday

Flat but at least a small ridge

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014111506-0-240.png?6

 

one final point your overlooking IDO is progression V timeline.

 

The models at day 3 have probably 12 hours of error rate either side -

Day 6 probably as much as a day error either side- by day 10 an over progressive run V a slower run could differ by 2 days ....

so its almost a pointless exercise

 

'general' Height anomaly positioning at day 10 is the maximum info to extract...

Edited November 16, 2014 by Steve Murr

[phil nw.]

No real sign of an Arctic block developing just yet with the vortex spread across the Polar regions.The Canadian lobe is still lurking and until that changes there will continue to be enough energy going across the north to prevent this.

We can see the push from those low heights to the north west even on the ECM which tends to favour ridging in the later frames.

Overall there appears to be a fairly even split in the jet  to our west around T144hrs.

This usually ends up with a mid-latitude high which has been modelled in the ens  for a few days and again in today's operationals. 

If looking for a change to a colder outlook this isn't  the worst pattern as the ECM illustrates.

I don't normally highlight later Op frames as we know how they can change by the next run but this at T240hrs just shows what i mean.

 

 

A high at a fairly modest latitude but because of it's orientation brings a plunge of cold air into continental Europe around the top and down on the eastern flank-so some energy over the top can be beneficial in these circumstances.

 

For us to draw on that cold we would need that high further north or north west. but as it is we would likely cool at the surface if we pick up a SE or E drift off the continent anyway.

Still some upstream details to be decided but with a increasingly weak Atlantic jet profile there is every chance this block becoming more influential by next week end as low pressure systems split off to our west..

[IDO]

No uk highs in the last 3 runs....

Not withstanding the fact that you over analising day 10 charts, the ECM has been consistent in showing a high pressure ridging close to western Norway

Maybe you punt up what the gfs had for comparison .....

This morning's ECM D9-D10 chart:

Yes GFS is not brilliant at the moment as we go through this uncertain period of modelling. I was just responding to another post suggesting we would get a NE'ly at D9-10 with respect to the ECM.

Edited November 16, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[fergieweather]

Maybe the UKMO were talking more of upto T144hrs where the ECM performs best.

 

As this thread is most interested in colder synoptics we're probably more microscopic about it when it shows more amplitude past T168hrs, the ECM gets away with its odd AWOL moment because it remains ahead of the rest upto T144hrs.

 

I have to disagree with what the UKMO have put out, I've seen 99 percent of every single operational output from the NWP for the last ten years of winter months and more especially in recent winters the ECM has been often just as useless past T168hrs as the GFS.

...which is *precisely* why Exeter's M-R detailed guidance only ever goes out to T+132 (+144 was dropped a few years back). Beyond that, only ever broad-brush based on combination of EC/DECIDER & MOGREPS. Wisely so...

[Cloud 10]

Indeed, very visible on the 0z ECM EPS mean too even out to day 15:

 

day15h500ECM0z.png

 

Also using the very handy tool you guided towards yesterday, you can see the swing in the EPS over the last 24 hours towards this:

 

lowprobprev.png

12z Yesterday

 

lowprobcurr.png

0z Today

 

The suites at this range are far from infallible, but offers the best NWP insight available to us mere mortals.

 

SK

 

That 360 hr ensemble mean chart for the first day of winter will do nicely,and i dare say a decent

sized cold pool to our far East.

[J10]

 

For us to draw on that cold we would need that high further north or north west. but as it is we would likely cool at the surface if we pick up a SE or E drift off the continent anyway.

Still some upstream details to be decided but with a increasingly weak Atlantic jet profile there is every chance this block becoming more influential by next week end as low pressure systems split off to our west..

 

Sorry to partially quote, but at the moment I am quite pleased at this evening charts, why some may ask, well things settling down with a bit more of drier weather, and that is a blessing in itself.

 

If this leads to some frosty weather overnight this is a bonus.

 

[knocker]

Indeed

 

[Winter Cold]

Best thing i can see on tonights models is that the polar vortex is still very much struggling right out to the end of the runs. This is a good trend as each time it has been shown to gather strength its failed to verify

 

Tonights ECM, GFS and GFS(P) at T240:

 

 

Nice!

[suxer]

Indeed

I'm sorry but what are you saying ?

[IDO]

Indeed

WOW. Yes the talk should be about the anomalous warmth coming up. I am sure it has happened before but I have rarely seen such a warm anomaly in late November; that strong. Interesting to see how that will translate to 2m temps assuming all the models haven't gone schizo. Even the D9 and D10 ECM charts have +8 and +4 anomalous 850s over the UK.

 

Edited November 16, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[mushymanrob]

Yes i'm dreaming, Another warm Month on the cards looking at the Models, How long can this continue for..

Actually, thats quite telling. Theres no reason why it shouldn't continue indefinitely, on the other hand of course it might end this month.

Current runs suggest daily high records might be broken later this week, or at least threatened. IF we get a warm plume as some models suggest is possible.

[bluearmy]

WOW. Yes the talk should be about the anomalous warmth coming up. I am sure it has happened before but I have rarely seen such a warm anomaly in late November; that strong. Interesting to see how that will translate to 2m temps assuming all the models haven't gone schizo. Even the D9 and D10 ECM charts have +8 and +4 anomalous 850s over the UK.

 

ECM100-168-3.GIFECM100-216-2.GIFECM100-240-3.GIF

Well, according to yr.no, the 9 and 10 day temps for my neck of the woods is 6 and 7c. balmy!

[nick sussex]

WOW. Yes the talk should be about the anomalous warmth coming up. I am sure it has happened before but I have rarely seen such a warm anomaly in late November that strong. Interesting to see how that will translate to 2m temps assuming all the models haven't gone schizo. Even the D9 and D10 ECM charts have +8 and +4 anomalous 850s over the UK.

 

ECM100-168-3.GIFECM100-216-2.GIFECM100-240-3.GIF

Yes pretty amazing, just imagine the temps in the summer coming off that southerly flow. It looks marvellous down here with temps likely to hit 20c and perhaps more because of the fohn effect

 

I'm all for cold but maybe we should think of it as one last warm hurrah before the cold arrives, warm southerlies however are often precursors to easterlies, the straight southerly with high pressure is often indicative of deeper diggy troughing upstream, its this same dig that we need later on in the ECM output but much further west to help build a ridge ahead of the troughing at T168hrs.

[Banbury]

Yes i'm dreaming, Another warm Month on the cards looking at the Models, How long can this continue for.. 

Until the start of 2015 and then we are into a colder run

[ANYWEATHER]

Tiny little steps for some cold  across the nation at day 10 and given the 12z suite Gfs /Ecm both yesterday and today show an evolution  to something like winter. But, before then, there are hills and rivers, and mountains to cross. Normal November murck on offer before then.............

[Nouska]

Actually, thats quite telling. Theres no reason why it shouldn't continue indefinitely, on the other hand of course it might end this month.

Current runs suggest daily high records might be broken later this week, or at least threatened. IF we get a warm plume as some models suggest is possible.

 

Here is the Reading epsgram of the ECM 12Z output - the high uppers do not reflect in surface temperatures but both deterministic and control are at the bottom of the range.

 

I've used an imgur link in case of copyright issues.

 

http://i.imgur.com/UId8M3x.gif

Edited November 16, 2014 by Nouska

[A.J]

A couple of posts have just met their maker in internet oblivion, so just a friendly reminder to keep on topic, and friendly as well.........thanks