Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[I remember Atlantic 252]

so greenland block is out of the question really dont know what to say not likely to see a northerly or arctic northerly and no northeaster either 

 

Still looks good, mainly cold and frosty on this ECM (for the south), be thankful it's not showing a raging Atlantic!

[Mucka]

so greenland block is out of the question really dont know what to say not likely to see a northerly or arctic northerly and no northeaster either 

 

 

Any Greenland block has always been a 10+ day proposition so I really wouldn't rule outt stronger Atlantic ridging later at this stage.

As far as a good ridge going onto form a Scandi high it is not a good run and not amplified enough but it is just one run.

Edited November 29, 2014 by Mucka

[MR EXTREMES]

vortex sent packing 

 

and i admit im still learning and model watching or even posting is not for the faint hearted i admit tonight ive taken all the runs at face value and posted some silly comments so i am sorry if you feel my posts lack the expert stuff many have.

anyway i will stay on topic and refrain from posting until ive seen the end of each model.

i should know by now to be honest.

anyway one thing is a cert its going to feel seasonal and snow is possible for scotland dry frost and fog for most of england and we can be thankful for that much at least.

Edited November 29, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[IDO]

ECM run by run edges closer to GFS consistent output. We lost the northerly of yesterday and now the pattern flattens out, much like its and GEFS mean. By D8:

 

 Compared to last night's: 

 

ECM consistently after D7 over amplify. Not saying that GFS op and P have it right as they go to the other extreme, so somewhere in the middle looks the call. However I am not sure that will swing the UK into a cold spell before D13 as the PV looks too active in out segment of the NH.  ECM are unlikely to change a habit of a lifetime so expect further amplification at D9-10.

 

As expected the GFS op FI has no support:

 

Edited November 29, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Banbury]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014112912/ECH1-216.GIF?29-0

 

HP out West , will it ridge up to the South of Greenland and let the Artic rush in??

Edited November 29, 2014 by Polar Maritime
Removed quoted post

[Cloud 10]

2 in a row from the ECM with the PV being squeezed over to the Russian side,should be a good 240 hrs chart.

 

[bradymk]

ECM 216 a good chart however far out it is, the low heights starting to disappear over Greenland and to our NW with a ridge looking likely to build. Settled before then with frost/fog common and average temps with colder temps for next weekend.

Edit: great end to ECM in terms of longer term potential.

Edited November 29, 2014 by bradythemole

[A.J]

 a few off topic posts removed in response to a deleted post......remember folks, use the report button rather than reply.....cheers

Edited November 29, 2014 by ajpoolshark

[IDO]

...more interesting is the possibility of further Pacific storms and if 95W recurves then some mid latitude chaos may be just enough Trop and Strat wise to get us into a long term blocked pattern.

[Banbury]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014112912/ECH1-240.GIF?29-0

Not a bad chart

[Ice Day]

Nice looking 240 chart (edit: Sorry, should have said nice for 'coldies')

 

Edited November 29, 2014 by Ice Day

[nick sussex]

Tonights model headlines sponsored by the Star Wars Trilogy appreciation society and not those dismal prequels!

 

The ECM after being lauded by NCEP for the last few days has decided it wants to join the dark side Darth Vader, however its not quite as dark as the Emperor  GFS and GFS P.

 

The UKMO alias Luke Skywalker with amplified light sabre stands in their way, the GEM alias Princess Leia including dodgy hairstyle is ready to join the fight.

 

The JMA  that dodgy bloke from the Empire Strikes Back who betrays Han Solo but then decides it wants to develop pressure towards Scandi.

 

The ECM may yet see the error of its ways as the polar region is more like the UKMO than the GFS, so we may yet get to the scene in Return of the Jedi where Darth Vader tries to make amends to Luke.

 

At T240hrs the ECM indeed has made a good try at making amends but no one believes Darth after his less than stellar recent efforts!

[MR EXTREMES]

what a tease the ecm is being now this is a chart for the cold crew.

[Snowmad79]

vortex sent packing 

 

Yeah a trend I've noticed also is for the vortex to take another hit and weaken followed by a relocation of the main lobe back over to the Russian side of the arctic. Imo I think it's going to be a case of waiting for this to happen before there is any real chance of a deep cold pattern developing. 

[gottolovethisweather]

vortex sent packing 

 

and i admit im still learning and model watching or even posting is not for the faint hearted i admit tonight ive taken all the runs at face value and posted some silly comments so i am sorry if you feel my posts lack the expert stuff many have.

 

 

EM, no problem whatsoever, nobody in here is truly an expert as if they were, they'd be in full-time employment with some elite meteorological organisation and would hardly have time to post.   Yet there are some very intelligent folk with fantastic climatological knowledge in these forums and I will always listen to them, above and beyond my own interpretations. This alone, should simply be part of the learning curve for the most of us. My only suggestion I would give you and this probably also applies to any newbies and those not-so adept model readers is to let the run materialise in its entirety before commenting about any future developments, as if not, the charts will often make a fool of you. Another thing of course is to be aware of just where FI might begin in any specific set of runs, right now I'd say it is around the 5th December with pretty much cross-model consensus.   This last factor can be determined by looking at the associated model ensembles spreads, such as those given on the previous page by AWD (see here) for the GEFS ensembles. 

 

 

 

*Sorry mods, not strictly model-related but I feel it needed broadcasting to all and sundry*

Edited November 29, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[bluearmy]

ECM op remains consistent after yesterday's progressive run. What will be of interest will be if there appears to be any clustering around day 10 on the spreads re the upstream amplification.

[Jason M]

ECM op remains consistent after yesterday's progressive run. What will be of interest will be if there appears to be any clustering around day 10 on the spreads re the upstream amplification.

Things might move quicker than that. The GEFS were notably different this evening with more amplification around day 7. Quite a few were close to delivering and although there were not many cigars on offer, if the 18z runs amplify things any further a day 7 northerly could suddenly appear.

[bluearmy]

Things might move quicker than that. The GEFS were notably different this evening with more amplification around day 7. Quite a few were close to delivering and although there were not many cigars on offer, if the 18z runs amplify things any further a day 7 northerly could suddenly appear.

I think any northerly pre day 10/11 will more than likely be a standard type toppler. Upstream pattern doesn't look as good at day 6/7 as it does day 10.

[Jason M]

Yes, I'd agree with that. Probably a topple followed a couple of day later by a more potent 2nd attempt.

[IDO]

I think any northerly pre day 10/11 will more than likely be a standard type toppler. Upstream pattern doesn't look as good at day 6/7 as it does day 10.

 

 

The problem I have with ECM, well one of them, is that the op NH wise doesn't marry with its mean. The GEFS are now hinting in week 2 that the Canadian vortex having moved to Russia in week 1, returns to Greenland/NE Canada:

 

Mean at D10: 

 

Preventing any ridge towards Greenland. This morning and tonight's ECM drains the Greenland/Canadian PV lobe:

 

 

Where as this morning's mean is showing a similar story as the GEFS with a mean PV lobe returning at D10 towards the Canadian/Greenland area:

 

 

That is why I am discounting the ECM op at D10. Hopefully the mean will be more supportive on the 12z but the last three GEFS runs mostly send the lower heights back at D10. So I am not sure the D10 window is again another false dawn; hopefully not.

[IDO]

ECM mean at D6 does not really give credence to the UKMO chart:

 

 

 

That blink if you miss it UK northerly is not likely if the ECM mean is a guide. At D10 the ECM mean still not supporting the ops but I suspect there is a bigger cluster than this morning sending more energy away from Greenland:

 

 

But the op remains an outsider on that mean.

It would be nice if we get an early shot but the clock is ticking, the last two weeks of December remains potentially very cold for some places in the mid latitude. We just need a bit of luck when the bigger picture takes hold.

Edited November 29, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

well  all i can say is the models are teasing  the  coldies  first its there  then its  gone  and  its  back!!! but in deep f1  at the the moment we might get are first sign  off  the winter  stuff down the east coast  after  DEC 12  mind  you look in the  morning its will be gone again

[bluearmy]

the ecm uppers spread shows decent clustering around the op solution. at 10 days out, there is little else you could hope for.  (unless its nov 2010)

 

if the op continues to play around with this broad solution then each run of the ens should hopefully begin to build a similar mean outcome.

 

i dont expect heights to build in e arctic canada/n greenland by day 10. the spreads show the lowest heights likely around ne greenland stretching back towards n of hudsons.

 

 

 

 

 

[phil nw.]

Although the NH pattern is looking too flat for any long lasting northerly a the moment, next week still looks colder as we get some polar air into the building high.

We can see the cold front coming se on Monday and although the flow is westerly it brings in the first shot of colder air which will lower temperatures from the current mildness to more average readings. 

 

 

with the high then building in and diverting the jet north and south we keep the Atlantic at bay and this retains the cold at the surface through the following days.

For any newbies this pattern is a good example of the split flow or jet,setting up for the coming week.

 

the blocking high over the UK acting like a rock in a stream diverting the current around it.

 

so a lot of dry weather about and likely to feel colder as temperatures start to ease down through the week to below average in places with increasing risk of frosts.

The Warks Ens on 2mtr temps show the downward trend.

 

so the main theme going forward is a lot of  dry quiet weather and becoming colder through the coming week under mainly high pressure.

Looking into week 2 i can't see any real change to this from the ens.- the forecast anomalies, 

 

Nothing unusual and not a pattern to receive any deep upper cold without further upstream amplification, but at least we have the prospect of a UK high with surface cold and some frosts which will keep the Atlantic mildness at bay for now.

 

[knocker]

There are some major differences between the GEFS and ECM anomalies this evening at T240 although perhaps not effecting the UK too much.

 

The ECM has amplification upstream Pacific/N. America with low Pacific and HP NA. High pressure Atlantic and Scandinavia. The Canadian trough linking with the Russian and a weak trough south to north of the UK, Isolated HP at the Pole.

 

The GEFS is the same for the Pacific/N.America and the Atlantic HP linking to the Scandinavian but here it differs. No Russian trough, instead there is a broad area of low pressure Pole/Greenland/NE Canada.

 

As far as the surface analysis goes both these scenarios mean little change vis s vis the UK with HP to the south west and western Russia. So some chilly days but no sign of incursions of any major cold.

 

Broadly speaking the NOAA 6-10 goes along with the ECM and the 8-14 has a trough Iceland ( hey ho not the Faroes) and HP over the Pole.

 

The upshot of all this is check tomorrow for signs of consolidation between the three, or even changes perhaps, which is my get out jail free card.

 

Unlikely any snow or bitter cold if this holds up.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited November 29, 2014 by Polar Maritime
Edited to keep comments of it away.