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Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

It's hard to have too much faith in the GFS when it goes from this jet stream pattern over the USA on its 06hrs run at T168hrs:

 

attachicon.gifgfsna-5-168.png

 

To this at T162hrs on its 12hrs run:

 

attachicon.gifgfsna-5-162.png

 

It's more amplified on the 12hrs.

 

Over the course of a few days though it is relatively reliable as long as an individual compares inter-runs, for example, the 12z runs on which I've commented over recent days. Moreover though, the NH Jetstream pattern is under assault for sure and only in the mid to longer term does it even threaten our shores with something more vicious complete with potential incoming depressions. The implications of those current events in the US on our tiny part of the globe need to closely watched though, there is no doubt of that.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

UKMO gives us an Easterly at day 6

 

UN144-21.GIF?20-17

 

Rather pointless posting that up, to be fair. Unless of course you are jesting with it, the surface Temperatures would simply bring mild drizzly dank skies. A lot of difference in the short-term between the GFS (P) 12z and the UKMO, chalk and cheese very early on. 

 

In fact, I apologise, the GFS (P) had the warmer uppers at said timeframe. A complicated setup right now though whichever way you look at things.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Rather pointless posting that up, to be fair. Unless of course you are jesting with it, the surface Temperatures would simply bring mild drizzly dank skies. A lot of difference in the short-term between the GFS (P) 12z and the UKMO, chalk and cheese very early on. 

 

In fact, I apologise, the GFS (P) had the warmer uppers at said timeframe. A complicated setup right now though whichever way you look at things.

 

Yep. The UKMO at day 6 would be far from mild:

 

UW144-7.GIF?20-17

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

UKMO gives us an Easterly at day 6

 

UN144-21.GIF?20-17

Good spot. mild to begin with but who knows how it might develop, if it holds the Atlantic up then eventually it could facilitate cold. Being a T144 chart not a T240 one, it could be a start.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Over the course of a few days though it is relatively reliable as long as an individual compares inter-runs, for example, the 12z runs on which I've commented over recent days. Moreover though, the NH Jetstream pattern is under assault for sure and only in the mid to longer term does it even threaten our shores with something more vicious complete with potential incoming depressions. The implications of those current events in the US on our tiny part of the globe need to closely watched though, there is no doubt of that.

 

But surely if the jet stream pattern is under assault, as you put it, then it is indicative of the fluidity of the upper are pattern at the moment on a short term basis. Having said that the anomalies have been fairly consistent.

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Good spot. mild to begin with but who knows how it might develop, if it holds the Atlantic up then eventually it could facilitate cold. Being a T144 chart not a T240 one, it could be a start.

 

I agree, although it would be be cool not mild to start of with. I'd much rather have an Easterly at day 6 than a south westerly, let's hope the ECM backs it tonight!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Wow, that is some disagreement, anywhere between +6 and -3 then!

 

again, the same with any model output, it is not specifics but the overall trend, so up rather than down seems to be its message I think?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

You can see how important it is to cut the PV chunk off from the UK troughing by looking at the GFS P.

 

Only then you can get the troughing to weaken and disrupt, not a bad GFS P for trend. The stakes are raised now for the ECM, I liked its morning run upstream and maybe we might be seeing some light at the end of the tunnel.

 

For coldies I think this early battle is one we'd like to win, it would be good to see a victory for cold  here and perhaps a good signal for the rest of the winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

It's hard to have too much faith in the GFS when it goes from this jet stream pattern over the USA on its 06hrs run at T168hrs:

 

attachicon.gifgfsna-5-168.png

 

To this at T162hrs on its 12hrs run:

 

attachicon.gifgfsna-5-162.png

 

It's more amplified on the 12hrs.

 

The 06z and 18z are just for fun. Worth a look but that's about it!

 

Two days ago the first diving low at around D5-6 the GFS op sent most of the energy NE over the block and it wasn't till the second low that there was energy going SE. Subsequent runs trend towards that first LP system now sliding SE:

 

2 day's ago: post-14819-0-43678200-1416500985_thumb.p Today: post-14819-0-33677400-1416501007_thumb.p

 

The bias of the GFS seen there. However with this locked in pattern although big differences early, when we then fast forward to December 3rd there are similar outcomes:

 

post-14819-0-00380400-1416501329_thumb.p post-14819-0-48223900-1416501339_thumb.p

 

This may tie in with the high amplitude MJO signal (been very constant over the last week+):

 

post-14819-0-66943900-1416501507_thumb.p  post-14819-0-95947800-1416501517_thumb.g

 

Knocker's post from a US expert suggests the current driving force for the NH is indeed the MJO. It only lasts a week before going into phase 4:

 

post-14819-0-64665800-1416501724_thumb.g

 

GEM at D10 pretty much in line with the long wave pattern for that period:

 

 post-14819-0-36602400-1416502132_thumb.p  GFS P at same time: post-14819-0-61151900-1416502184_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

But surely if the jet stream pattern is under assault, as you put it, then it is indicative of the fluidity of the upper are pattern at the moment on a short term basis. Having said that the anomalies have been fairly consistent.

 

You tell me Knocker, perhaps it is just reflective of our current rinse and repeat weather patterns? I can't honestly answer that but what does seem apparent is that a full on Atlantic attack is not showing within reliable timescales just yet and any signs of an active Jet are consistently at D7 or later still. My definition/terminology of "under assault" might not be the most appropriate phrase for it but my previous post attempts to illustrate what I mean when looking at the attached chart within.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81842-model-output-discussion-1200-hrs-151114/?p=3072735

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

again, the same with any model output, it is not specifics but the overall trend, so up rather than down seems to be its message I think?

Yes John, tho didnt I read on this thread, that the AO was expected to climb +ve for a short while then return quite -ve soon after?? 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Yes John, tho didnt I read on this thread, that the AO was expected to climb +ve for a short while then return quite -ve soon after??

Yep, you did. Seemingly all going to schedule thus far. If all goes to plan expect another AO tanking circa 2nd week of December. Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Yes John, tho didnt I read on this thread, that the AO was expected to climb +ve for a short while then return quite -ve soon after??

It's changing day by day, run by run. This morning when I looked at it, I'd have said it was trending neg. This afternoon - opposite

Week 2 AO is a pin job at the moment

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

Apparently an active MJO often drives a negative NAO, 2-3 weeks later. Maybe something the models are not picking up on yet?

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

again, the same with any model output, it is not specifics but the overall trend, so up rather than down seems to be its message I think?

Agreed John, I think we are heading upwards as that chart highlights. Still a heck of a discrepancy between two of the members though!

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

The 06z and 18z are just for fun. Worth a look but that's about it!

 

Two days ago the first diving low at around D5-6 the GFS op sent most of the energy NE over the block and it wasn't till the second low that there was energy going SE. Subsequent runs trend towards that first LP system now sliding SE:

 

2 day's ago: attachicon.gifgfs-2014111812-0-228.png Today: attachicon.gifgfs-0-186.png

 

The bias of the GFS seen there. However with this locked in pattern although big differences early, when we then fast forward to December 3rd there are similar outcomes:

 

attachicon.gifgfs-2014111812-0-360.png attachicon.gifgfs-0-312.png

 

This may tie in with the high amplitude MJO signal (been very constant over the last week+):

 

attachicon.gifrealtimemjo.png  attachicon.gifDecemberPhase3gt1500mb.gif

 

Knocker's post from a US expert suggests the current driving force for the NH is indeed the MJO. It only lasts a week before going into phase 4:

 

attachicon.gifDecemberPhase4gt1500mb.gif

 

GEM at D10 pretty much in line with the long wave pattern for that period:

 

 attachicon.gifgem-0-234.png  GFS P at same time: attachicon.gifgfs-0-240 (1).png

 

IDO, something amiss with your MJO graphic - the forecast start point is not the same as on the current multi-model one.

 

jZNbaa8.gif

 

No clear picture ahead from phase three.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

IDO, something amiss with your MJO graphic - the forecast start point is not the same as on the current multi-model one.

 

jZNbaa8.gif

 

No clear picture ahead from phase three.

 

Hi. No that's today's. It uses the Wheeler and Hendon (2004) RMM from the CFS so it will tend to paint a prettier picture than the four member one. So probably not a definitive guide but I find it easier to use as a reference tool. Cheers.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

again, the same with any model output, it is not specifics but the overall trend, so up rather than down seems to be its message I think?

Personally, I don't have much faith in those AO forecasts. They are up and down like a you know what's underwear!

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Personally, I don't have much faith in those AO forecasts. They are up and down like a you know what's underwear!

 

Lets hope business is good this winter then!

 

It's hard to have too much faith in the GFS when it goes from this jet stream pattern over the USA on its 06hrs run at T168hrs:

 

attachicon.gifgfsna-5-168.png

 

To this at T162hrs on its 12hrs run:

 

attachicon.gifgfsna-5-162.png

 

It's more amplified on the 12hrs.

 

 

Love the new signature Nick,lets hope it can actually be put to use this winter. :laugh: 

 

Speaking of new things,Meteociel now have anomaly charts for the GEFS ensembles. :) 

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=240&code=21&mode=5&carte=1

Edited by Cloud 10
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

ECM T96hrs, yes please! better than the UKMO with the shortwave clearing east towards Scandi.

 

Annoyingly however its left that shortwave in nw France at T120hrs, grrrrr!

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

It's all a bit ''Meh'' at the moment. 

 

The GFS 12z seems to be very progressive leaning towards a repeat of the rubbish we had to content with last year, especially the control run. 

 

Control Run on the GFS at + 228, look familiar ??

gens-0-1-228.png?12

 

The other models lean more towards a stalemate type set up, which had we had cold air to our East, would have been stunning synoptics , alas there is a distinct lack of anything cold in Europe and hence bugger all to tap into even if we did get a far flung Easterly. 

 

On the face of it the UKMO looks better at + 144, but those two High pressure systems would soon link up and we'd have a jet stream running WAY north and I can't see a route to cold from this. 

 

UW144-21.GIF?20-17

 

Thank god it's only November. 

 

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