Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[SMU]

Its pretty good with attempted undercut at 216.............

 

S

Edited November 19, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Barry12]

ECM IS BACK

 

 

THE BLOCK SAYS ATLANTIC GO AWAY (until day 7 anyway)

Edited November 19, 2014 by Barry95

[shaky]

Pretty good ecm tonight and very similar to the gfs if not better!! Scandy heights backing west again!!

[Polar Maritime]

I've deleted/edited some post's, One of which could lead to Epileptic fits.. Lets keep to Model Discussion please, And no one liners.

 

Thanks, PM

[Barry12]

Day 7 is the best, the block is still staying firm, whereas on most other models the Atlantic is all out

 

 

Day 7 on the GFS

 

 

Stronger Scandi block on the ECM as well

Edited November 19, 2014 by Barry95

[nick sussex]

Without that stupid shortwave waiting to phase with the trough at between T144hrs and T168hrs it would have been better, overall not bad and thankfully the ECM has moved away from that horror show progressive run a few days back.

[karyo]

Without that stupid shortwave waiting to phase with the trough at between T144hrs and T168hrs it would have been better, overall not bad and thankfully the ECM has moved away from that horror show progressive run a few days back.

Agreed! We are in a better place than we were 24 hours ago! 

 

Could the models be picking up the stratospheric warming signal? Who knows...

 

Karyo

[Captain Shortwave]

Good agreement that the first Atlantic assault during the middle of next week could very well be repelled by the block to our east. Day 8-10 look similar to a couple of days back. Will the incoming lows push through or will they be repelled again. At the moment there is still no route to cold as the block remains ensconced in the middle latitudes as well as near Scandinavia/Russia. Surely if we keep the battle up we could eventually get cold air undercutting the high and bring us a step closer to a cold December.

Edited November 19, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

Good agreement that the first Atlantic assault during the middle of next week could very well be repelled by the block to our east. Day 8-10 look similar to a couple of days back. Will the incoming lows push through or will they be repelled again. At the moment there is still no route to cold as the block remains ensconced in the middle latitudes as well as near Scandinavia/Russia.

Theres a little patch of colder uppers pretty close, if the pattern backs further west and south it could get more interesting.

[phil nw.]

So far all the models show a similar overall NH 500hPa setup out to week 2.The continuing block to the east and the Atlantic mean trough just to our west.

Little change as we go through the period really with the trough affecting the UK perhaps more influential next week but no sign of any real push to the east of the UK.

 

In fact looking at the GFS mean chart at T120 and T240 hrs shows the stand off continuing

 

 

not a mile away from tonights ECM Op T240hrs chart

 

 

In fact that  Atlantic trough is modelled to tilt negatively, cutting further SE into Europe with time.

This would lower heights in S.Europe enabling them to get under the block.The amount of undercutting remains speculative at this stage and we will have to see if this develops further to enable us to draw on any the building cold pool further east.

 

We may indeed see a period of more unsettled weather later next week but there remains much uncertainty on this imo.

The way this pattern seems entrenched means the block could well reassert itself,especially with signs of more amplification of the flow upstream.

[knocker]

As far as the GEFs is concerned the pattern definitely tracks east after the amplification of the HP along the eastern seaboard at 168.

Charts weatherbell.com

Edited November 19, 2014 by knocker

[Stuie]

ECM T192 looks a dreary affair and hopefully not a sign of things to come, a low pressure bombardment akin to flooding last year.

What does look OK later in FI is a mini cold pool being generated over Scandi

That cold Scandi pool could be fueled further from the east.

[stratty]

ECM T192 looks a dreary affair and hopefully not a sign of things to come, a low pressure bombardment akin to flooding last year.

What does look OK later in FI is a mini cold pool being generated over Scandi

 

It is showing nothing like the 'low pressure bombardment'  - sorry!

[Stuie]

It is showing nothing like the 'low pressure bombardment'  - sorry!

 

I should have rephrased sorry, I hope it isn`t the start of a low pressure bombardment akin to last year.

[stratty]

I should have rephrased sorry, I hope it isn`t the start of a low pressure bombardment akin to last year.

 

Don't we all -  

Hopefully with the projected uppers etc it won't be

[IDO]

Some good news from the MOGREPS:

@EssexWeather: Met Office ensemble (MOGREPS) hinting towards the end of the run that high pressure may end up in a favourable position for cold.

https://twitter.com/essexweather/status/535160974429671425

Scotland the initial beneficiary.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Some good news from the MOGREPS:

@EssexWeather: Met Office ensemble (MOGREPS) hinting towards the end of the run that high pressure may end up in a favourable position for cold.

https://twitter.com/essexweather/status/535160974429671425

Scotland the initial beneficiary.

When is the end of the run?  Now that is an interesting development isn't it?  I've been happy with this evenings output and this is further interest, expect more interesting runs and developments to show over next 7 days...

 

BFTP

Edited November 19, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[swfc]

When is the end of the run?  Now that is an interesting development isn't it?

 

BFTP

BFTP is mogreps a mix of the ukmo and fax???thamks

[blizzard81]

How far out do the MOGREPS ensembles go out to ? Anyone.

[radiohead]

When is the end of the run?  Now that is an interesting development isn't it?  I've been happy with this evenings output and this is further interest, expect more interesting runs and developments to show over next 7 days...

 

BFTP

MOGREPS medium range runs to 15 days.

[nick sussex]

expect fergie to mention this in his next update!! Thank god its showing a possibility of cold!! Last year mogreps wasn't really going for any cold and am sure it was proved right pretty much every update!! This is a brilliant update for cold lovers!!

That does suggest that the troughing might disrupt favourably or at least edge further south and west allowing a cold pool to move in from east. However its still well into the future and theres a lot of energy being fed into the Atlantic by the PV.

 

Perhaps this is the first real bellwether of the winter so far, if the Atlantic doesn't win this battle then that might be a good sign for the rest of the winter.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTP is mogreps a mix of the ukmo and fax???thamks

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/areas/data-assimilation-and-ensembles/ensemble-forecasting/MOGREPS

 

 

BFTP

[Stuie]

MOGREPS medium range runs to 15 days.

 

I presume it is hinting at a Scandi high which the GEFS FI starts to show?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

MOGREPS medium range runs to 15 days.

Thanks, was just reading up on it.   So turn of the month / early December, yep happy with that.

 

BFTP

Edited November 19, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Captain Shortwave]

Well if the ECM ens are correct then there is a good chance that low pressure might never get past the UK

 

I think things might start to get interesting over the coming days. Winds tend to veer back to the south (between SSW and SSE) into week 2.