Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[Barry12]

Day 9 is far better than day 9 on the 06z

 

Edited November 19, 2014 by Barry95

[Ali1977]

Huge difference in NH profiles at day 8, this just shows all is to play for come the end of the month.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I anticipate many more runs are needed over days and days to come to resolve it, but I like the tweaking going on,  One would think it has to go one way or another, but then I think of RJS and it won't make up its mind comment.  But having said I have made my mind up.

 

BFTP

Edited November 19, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Barry12]

The Weekend is looking pretty cool to me (with the exception of the SE coast)

 

 

Edited November 19, 2014 by Barry95

[gottolovethisweather]

Well by this time next week, the mildness of later this week and into the weekend will have been ushered away and banished from any coldie's thoughts as most of us will be positioned under a quieter spell of HP influence and much cooler surface Temperatures. Next question and by now deep FI even at this early stage, is just how far South and how vigorous does the meandering NH Jet wish to get by then. The NW to SE axis of said feature is a beauty to behold it must be stressed. As a result of this, just where can we expect to see any resultant Atlantic lows position themselves in relation to the tiny UK landmass. Favourably for some colder uppers to be dragged into the mix by day 7-10, just possibly I would say right now. The stubborn trough pattern at least, looks like finally losing its grip on this part of the world and we can certainly be thankful for that. However, a lot of dice need to be rolled before we can even talk about deep cold uppers or the slushy iced liquid stuff falling from the skies, my friends.  

Edited November 19, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[mushymanrob]

Certain posters have claimed that the Atlantic will win out for weeks now, by analyzing day 10-16 charts supposedly supporting there claims, it was the exact same with the Polar Vortex apparently getting stronger and more organized. It does confuse me that certain posters still seem to be unable to understand the fact that what the models are showing outside the unreliable time frame is not certain to happen, whether it be an Atlantic flow or an Easterly flow.   

 

yyyessss... (paxman stylee), thats what the charts were showing, (and still are) , therefore is as relevant to this forums discussion as the possible fi cold evolution the recent northern blocking was. .  it was of course, only a few days ago that we lost the direct atlantic flow, a flow that has seen the uk get rather wet in recent weeks.  even now the west is getting direct atlantic weather as a frontal system sweeps up from the southwest. so i dont see it so much as the 'atlantic winning out' , as the atlantic re-establishing dominance after a short interlude.

 

these charts for days 6 - 16 show an expected decline of the eastern block, and a strengthening   atlantic trough dominated pattern. of course it isnt certain, but with the uk's default setting being westerly it has to be a fairly possible outcome.

 

 

Edited November 19, 2014 by mushymanrob

[Polar Maritime]

The GFSP again looks very promising in it's signals. As the Atlantic battles with the block to our East.

 

The Jet has no option but to head South. Very meridional, Bringing the possibility of some very disturbed/stormy weather for the turn of the Month, On a chilly Pm flow, Giving the possibility of Snow over high ground and maybe Sleet to lower levels, It will certainly feel raw. A good start to Winter if this set-up rung true, Which i believe wont be far from the mark.

 

Edited November 19, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[shaky]

The Weekend is looking pretty cool to me (with the exception of the SE coast)

 

 

yup looks like the very warm uppers have been squeezed out over the last few days for the weekend! ! At one point there was strong infact very strong agreement on +13 uppers but now they manage just about get to the 10 degree mark before fading away! !

[johnholmes]

Certain posters have claimed that the Atlantic will win out for weeks now, by analyzing day 10-16 charts supposedly supporting there claims, it was the exact same with the Polar Vortex apparently getting stronger and more organized. It does confuse me that certain posters still seem to be unable to understand the fact that what the models are showing outside the unreliable time frame is not certain to happen, whether it be an Atlantic flow or an Easterly flow.   

 

What the 10-16 day charts, or at any rate, the 500mb anomaly charts are 'suggesting' note the caveat, that the Atlantic does seem more likely than a block east or NE of the UK. They can be wrong but maybe 3 out of 10 times compared to being close to the mark 7 out of 10 times IF they show consistency. As to what happens beyond 16 days, maybe out to 18-20 days a similar idea beyond that and I don't pretend to be able to say. One can look for possible ideas looking at MJO data along with AO and NAO but neither AO or NAO are especially reliable beyond about 7 days so the anomaly charts are as good as any for a 2 week outlook. The MJO is rather more reliable I find but got to confess I have not looked at this for a few days.

 

The MJO is currently in 2 with a prediction of going to 3 with a bit of amplitude so its 500mb comparisons are probably reasonable

links

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

Edited November 19, 2014 by johnholmes

[phil nw.]

The GFSP again looks very promising again in it's signals. As the Atlantic battles with the block to our East.

 

The Jet has no option but to head South. Very meridional, Bringing the possibility of some very disturbed/stormy weather for the turn of the Month, On a chilly Pm flow. 

 

Yep the south east dig of the jet continues to be the main theme PM.

Although the Scandi. block ebbs and flows over a period it never disappears and is the reason why the Atlantic is not getting past the meridian so far.

There does appear to be a trend to ease the mean Atlantic trough position a little closer to us in a few days but that will bring some polar maritime air into the mix anyway,so it looks like we will see a cooler unsettled spell with the most rain in the west. 

The stand off continues in the overall pattern so while there's no early prospect of deep cold it's still a decent set up with the 00z ECM and this 12z GFS(p) showing further upstream amplification of the jet  in the higher resolution part of it's run. 

[Swave Snow]

What the 10-16 day charts, or at any rate, the 500mb anomaly charts are 'suggesting' note the caveat, that the Atlantic does seem more likely than a block east or NE of the UK. They can be wrong but maybe 3 out of 10 times compared to being close to the mark 7 out of 10 times IF they show consistency. As to what happens beyond 16 days, maybe out to 18-20 days a similar idea beyond that and I don't pretend to be able to say. One can look for possible ideas looking at MJO data along with AO and NAO but neither AO or NAO are especially reliable beyond about 7 days so the anomaly charts are as good as any for a 2 week outlook. The MJO is rather more reliable I find but got to confess I have not looked at this for a few days.

 

The MJO is currently in 2 with a prediction of going to 3 with a bit of amplitude so its 500mb comparisons are probably reasonable

links

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

 

If the MJO is in 2 or 3 does that suggest Atlantic Storms for our part of the world in your opinion?

[Gael_Force]

What the 10-16 day charts, or at any rate, the 500mb anomaly charts are 'suggesting' note the caveat, that the Atlantic does seem more likely than a block east or NE of the UK. They can be wrong but maybe 3 out of 10 times compared to being close to the mark 7 out of 10 times IF they show consistency. As to what happens beyond 16 days, maybe out to 18-20 days a similar idea beyond that and I don't pretend to be able to say. One can look for possible ideas looking at MJO data along with AO and NAO but neither AO or NAO are especially reliable beyond about 7 days so the anomaly charts are as good as any for a 2 week outlook. The MJO is rather more reliable I find but got to confess I have not looked at this for a few days.

 

The MJO is currently in 2 with a prediction of going to 3 with a bit of amplitude so its 500mb comparisons are probably reasonable

links

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

Thanks, John. The phase two > 1 composite that was posted on the winter thread. Very amplified in our area.

 

[IDO]

GFS P wet from D9-16 as lows move around the UK with fronts crossing on a daily basis:

 

 

 

Reminds me of last winter, so the possibility of extensive flooding if this run was close to verifying.

 

The Euro high gets pushed east and we get an Atlantic flow that turns cooler at the end of the run; cold rain time.

 

NH profile: 

 

GEM at D10 doesn't promise anything but a very wet period from the west: 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

The Weekend is looking pretty cool to me (with the exception of the SE coast)

 

 

 

Yep away from the far south it looks like Saturday could be quite chilly

 

GFS

 

 

GFS Para

 

 

Which leads to a cold night widely

 

 

:cold:

[knocker]

A quick glance at the GFS and P at T192 and the jet. Lows could wing along on the cold air side of this and do us no good at all.

Charts weatherbell.com

Edited November 19, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

A quick glance at the GFS and P at T192 and the jet. Lows could wing along on the cold air side of this and do us no good at all.

 

Yes a mix of Tm & Pm, But never a true Tm as from Polar regions as John alluded to. A possibility of some very stormy/unsettled weather on the way with flooding.

Edited November 19, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[492]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

 

Latest UKMO T+24 FAX is almost identical to previous run except that the occlusion over western UK is moved further west. So still some backtracking occurring even within a very short timescale.

[nick sussex]

Some rather dramatic developments so far this evening with the digging trough in the Atlantic providing another variation of how the Atlantic might try and head into the UK.

 

The overall trend to bring troughing se through the UK looks supported but some earlier issues may well determine how far east/west this sets up.

 

If you go on the default pattern so far this autumn then the models have had the pattern too far east in their later timeframes, earlier we've seen how the shortwave to the north which is now shown not to phase in both the GFS P and UKMO outputs and allied with that digging trough delivers some interest .

 

 

The UKMO is certainly not without interest, in this type of set up how far south that trough digs will downstream effect high pressure moving ne and also you'll see the suggestion from the UKMO of a cut back in the jet.

 

The Atlantic will try and move in later but how far east is still uncertain and the actual angle of attack.

 

Looking upstream NCEP are happy to go with the renewed amplification over the USA:

 

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL RAPIDLY AMPLIFY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD TO YIELD A DEEP CNTRL CONUS TROUGH THAT SHOULD DRIFT
EWD NEXT MON-WED WHILE A MEAN RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE WEST COAST.
ASIDE FROM SOME DETAILS THE LATEST MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INTO
DAY 6 TUE OFFERS REASONABLY GOOD CLUSTERING FOR THE STREAM
INTERACTION LEADING TO A DEEP GRTLKS STORM AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH AS WELL AS FOR THE UPSTREAM RIDGE

 

Remembering here that the more that amplifies the more dig you'll see in upstream troughing.

 

We await the ECM now to see whether that goes in the direction of the UKMO/GFS P,

 

PS the shortwave I'm talking about is the one n/nw of the UK at T96hrs, this must clear eastwards without attaching to the trough to the west, otherwise this phasing pulls the troughing too far east.

 

If this phases it makes things more difficult and you won't get to the UKMO T120hrs output.

 

ECM has now decided to stop coming out, its stuck on T96hrs! typical!

Edited November 19, 2014 by nick sussex

[karyo]

ECM is stuck on 96 hours on Meteociel and 72 hours on wetterzentrale! 

[nick sussex]

ECM is stuck on 96 hours on Meteociel and 72 hours on wetterzentrale! 

What drama! Its a cliffhanger! I wouldn't have minded so much if it got to T120hrs before imploding.

[johnholmes]

Remembering here that the more that amplifies the more dig you'll see in upstream troughing.

do you not mean downstream?

[shaky]

What drama! Its a cliffhanger! I wouldn't have minded so much if it got to T120hrs before imploding.

good news is it looks kinda similar to the gfs at 96 hours so hopefully if and when the next frame updates it looks just as good as the gfs!!

[Summer Sun]

ECM is going to be delayed this afternoon it got to t96 then stuck

 

From meteociel

 

The ECMWF / CEP server is unavailable, the data will be late. Thank you for your understanding.

ECMWF server is down. Data Will Be Late. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Edited November 19, 2014 by Summer Sun

[nick sussex]

Remembering here that the more that amplifies the more dig you'll see in upstream troughing.

do you not mean downstream?

Yes that's what I meant, that deep low over the Great Lakes is the key to downstream. Nice too see you're on the ball John!

[nick sussex]

C'mon ECMWF, you've kept us waiting... Be a stonker! 

I only want it to come out if it doesn't put a dampener on proceedings, otherwise it can stay crashed! I'm heartened by that UKMO output especially and don't need the ECM to do a Scrooge!