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Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14


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While the models aren't showing much promise atm, lets play.....Spot the differences between 2010 & 2014... if you dare to continue...I live in hope!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=17&mois=11&annee=2010&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=0&map=0&type=0

 

 

ECM1-0_kyi8.GIFECM1-24_fnz0.GIF

Some pattern matches on here make me cringe, but this one looks pretty good! You never know.

Anyone else have the feeling that we are rolling dice at the moment? The pattern which affects our shores has a reoccurring eastern block and an Atlantic that keeps on splitting on contact with the block. It just feels to me as if just a couple of things need to happen in the right order, and we could be 'in' - basically, something to get heights to drop over central Europe, leaving Scandi heights cut-off. It seems almost every few days the models have a go at this, but can't quite line up all their ducks. I really don't think it's far from 'bingo' - may not happen right now though, of course. How many more chances will there be??

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While the models aren't showing much promise atm, lets play.....Spot the differences between 2010 & 2014... if you dare to continue...I live in hope!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=17&mois=11&annee=2010&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=0&map=0&type=0

 

 

ECM1-0_kyi8.GIFECM1-24_fnz0.GIF

After 17th Nov 2010, ridging extended from Scandi toward Greenland, while the westerly upper flow suddenly amplified upstream over the NW Atlantic too, allowing a cut-off low to develop over mainland Europe by 21/22 allowing a cold Ely/NEly to rein for the rest of the month. Little chance of ridging to Greenland as it looks at the moment. But energy diving SE into SW Europe,s a good start.

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I'm inclined to agree with a few of you, it does seems the models keep trying to show a colder set up but falling apart quickly, really we want them to start lining up for December not now but getting any cold in would be a start.

The patterns all over the place right now are more 2010 than 2013, of course there is still a lot to play for but considering we keep being told (for two weeks plus now) there would be a long mold wet spell it hasn't really materialised, sure we have had some rain but nothing like what the models were pointing at in October..

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Another set of runs, another load of differing solutions

GEM at day 5

gem-0-120.png?00

Very very different to the other models

UW120-21.GIF?18-05

UKMO on the other hand probably the extreme solution on this front.

ECM1-120.GIF?18-12

ECM and the GFS are fairly similar at day 5. Beyond that again looks a mess. The GFS riddles the high with cold pools and pulls the Atlantic through. The parallel offers more of a similar pattern with low pressure sinking near the UK or west of the UK. The ECM looks to be forming a wedge of heights over Scandinavia around day 7. Trouble is it looks too far east to help.

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The METO are struggling to know what's happening early next week according to last nights long range, so FI in the charts could be wildly wrong. While a raging Siberian blast looks unlikely it's not out the question come early December .

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The GFSP shows Heights pushing a little further West over Iceland towards the end of the run, Drawing back a slack Easterly. The uncertainty continues, With very skitty output.

 

An interesting post by MattHugo here thats worth a good read.. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-22#entry3071637

 

gfsnh-0-312.png?0gfsnh-0-348.png?0gfsnh-0-384.png?0

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Interesting parallel this morning, goes for some nice trough disruption and an eventual slider. Meantime the vortex, as has been trend of recent in days in FI, is retreating back over the pole to Siberia.

Gefs trending colder as well. I get the feeling we may have to wait a little longer into December but the first real window of opportunity still remains late Nov/early Dec

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Those awaiting the ECM monthlies update with bated breath need wait no longer. So on to the tidings of great joy.

 

The 500mb anomaly day10 starts with the upper trough west of the UK and this theme continues throughout the run with low pressure in the eastern Atlantic and moving east with HP to the N/NE following the same movement in a basically zonal flow, Essentially this has surface lows running from the Greenland area east./S. east with the block further east so typically unsettled westerly affair with temps around average.

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The return of Shannon and her Entropy by the looks of things...

Others have posted how wildly different the charts are after day 5 but also take a look at the GFS ensembles that show the scatter pretty early on:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Who know what will happen at this stage?

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The return of Shannon and her Entropy by the looks of things...

Others have posted how wildly different the charts are after day 5 but also take a look at the GFS ensembles that show the scatter pretty early on:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Who know what will happen at this stage?

 

 

Yes in a repeating pattern where the upcoming undercut was forecast to bring all sorts of goodies but was a miss, is likely to mean that the next possible undercut (around D9) the models will possibly go haywire again. However as MattHugo has outlined, the PV is less disorganised by then:

 

post-14819-0-67395800-1416296831_thumb.p

 

So the signal from the GEFS at the moment is that the possible undercut only shows in less than 20% of its members, where it was more prevalent in the failed attempt forecasted later this week: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=288

 

So we should expect some hi-res runs to show some great synoptics due to that cluster, but learning from experience it may be best to assume that any disrupting slider troughs are only about 20% likely at the moment, and therefore remain an outsider.

 

In the reliable we have a continuing signal for a plume late this week that should keep the UK warmer than cooler:

 

post-14819-0-80554600-1416297217_thumb.g

 

If you look at the end of the month there is the ensemble split with over 70% of members suggesting another milder few days of uppers, with the dissenters going cooler than the mean, in line with the repeating pattern. After that the GEFS suggest the block will be relentlessly pushed east allowing the zonal washout to start in early December; the exact reason I wanted the Atlantic to break through in the second third of November. So late December may indeed be the time period to look for the next cold shot.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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I have moved a post to the Winter hope/thoughts thread, Can we please only discuss what the Model's are showing in here.

 

Thanks, PM

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Looking through the ensembles this morning as well as the opps runs I'd say that we are still in broadly the same position as on Sunday. The last couple of ensemble suites have tended to swing back towards a more blocked outlook. I think this saga has some way to run tbh.

Given the uncertainty in the medium term across all output I'd personally give the ecm monthly little attention this morning. It may be right but if it is I suspect it will be down to luck on this occasion.

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gfs-0-144.png?0UW144-21.GIF?18-05

ukmo at 144 big differences to the gfs 144,

which holds heights to our east.

 

but the ecm also has certainly backed of from its little flirt with winter.

ECM1-144.GIF?18-12

and heres the vortex fightback from the ecm

 

ECH1-240.GIF?18-12

as we know once established this will take something very special to remove.

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Morning -

A fun couple of days in the model runs with nothing really becoming established -

High entropy means the start line for discrepancies is as early as 72-

Some very cold runs in the mix still like the GEM today with some not so exciting bits in the middle -

The uniform trend whilst not a steady march to cold is generally away from atlantic moving through - the ECM consistently sliding lows SE which is always a pleasent site!

S

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Yes, It does look like the Atlantic will be back by Months end from the N/W, A few more frames from the ECM in the right direction and it would show another Easterly flow of sorts, With that lobe being cut off...

 

ECH1-240.GIF?18-12gfsnh-0-240.png?0

Edited by Polar Maritime
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well this is what the upper air pattern is probably going to look like

EC-GFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

NOAA

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

similarities?

All 3 show a fairly marked trough, (EC-GFS)=close to/over UK, NOAA further west, Two out of 3 a ridge from northern Europe/Russia out towards Greenland, with EC dropping that idea this morning.

So not totally clear but the trough over or west of the UK looks odds on which would suggest that the upper flow is going to come from s of west much of the time out to 15 days. Beyond that who knows.

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Morning, just wanted to let you know that we've made a couple of updates to the chart viewers on the site to make it easier to jump between the different models, hope you find it useful. 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

 

Also, the GFS(P) vs GFS comparison viewer is still running to allow you to compare the 2 alongside eachother (00z and 12z only):

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfscomp;sess=

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Have too agree with that when you look at the models on face value but it seems a pattern change is edging in and we may see a more westerly influence, ether that is via a low pressure system or a high pressure cell ridging in from the Azores remains to be seen. At least if its the latter then we may see some cooler air toppling in which could lead to clear skies at night and some frost. 

 

As I mentioned yesterday, certainly no significant cold on the way for the foreseeable but if there is one crumb of comfort, its not Bartletts and a raging PV over Greenland either. 

Yes agreed, in terms of the 'weather on the ground' I'd be happy to see the Azores ridge give us a bit of inversion in fresh Atlantic PM air. I also think that ridge, if it becomes established for two or three days, intensifying, might nudge the current stalemate on a bit. I don't know how, only because it would be something different to what we've had for a while.

I could enjoy a more PM unsettled option at this stage, regardless of what it might mean in terms of progression further on. The long-range forecast from the British Met indicated a likelihood of 'cold very unsettled' and perhaps the models are starting to show the first signs of that.

 

The models consensus looks like a return to exactly what we had last week, to me. If that happens, at least the current drier spell and a possible couple of days or more from that Azores ridge means we couldn't say it's too much dreary or too much rain. And it still doesn't look like any real 'mild dross' being modelled. If the weekend turns out to be pleasant southerlies then I won't be complaining. Albeit I'll have to visit another thread to talk about a general trend to warmer climate................

 

But as others have said I don't see it turning out all that mild, nearer to average looks likely. The overall Euro/North Africa set-up doesn't look right for a strong plume, not enough energy in the flow. Though it's not long since such plumes were affecting us strongly - the end of October. Things have shifted a little since then though.

Still some unusual synoptics in the output overall, and I think contrary to what some are saying I think there is quite a deal of consistency there, other than in more micro detail.

Edited by Altohumorous
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airpressure.png

ecmslp.240.png

 

 

GFS [P] and ECM.  Slider LP turn of the month, NW/SE access late Nov.  This imo is on the money ushering in what I think will be at times an exceptionally cold December.  This is the period to watch for the change/development that will bring in a general E or NE flow

 

BFTP

Isn't that just a surface high over Greenland in the GFS option? So that even if the other factors there all came off, there wouldn't be the ridging to Greenland from North Europe? ECM option more in line with the recent and current pattern, and neither options showing heights building towards Greenland. I think those show what some ECM output has been showing for the last 2 weeks and would indicate consistency in maintaining what resulted.

 

In fact some of the ECM output a week or more ago showed ridging to Greenland. So currently no signal for that? The GFS has come a long way though from 2 weeks ago and less. Does that mean the GFS has adjusted (can the models adjust like that?) or is it just as likely it could turn out be very wrong again? Perhaps it shows that once the unexpected (for GFS) outcomes are processed, it then models based on the new info.

Overall ECM looks to be quite consistent. Overall I think it's possible we have a slow trend to possible 'cold unsettled'. Certainly not as cold as 3 and 4 years ago (in December at any rate), and that's what the long-range indicated. Need the models to start showing either retrogression of very strong north/east Europe high or heights build to Greenland. I think the former is looking a little more possible of the two.

Edited by Altohumorous
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