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Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

post-6981-0-95529100-1416169918_thumb.pn

 

does this help for noon day 8 ?

 

i think some of you are forgetting how short the days are. a long draw souwester and a 6am min in double figures is a better starting point than a southerly off the continent.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

attachicon.gifecmwf_t2max_uk_33.png

 

does this help for noon day 8 ?

 

i think some of you are forgetting how short the days are. a long draw souwester and a 6am min in double figures is a better starting point than a southerly off the continent.

 

No not surprised, though ECM can under cook 2m temps. No I was talking about the unusual anomalous uppers, and was pondering how that would reflect at 2m. 

 

Good support from the ECM mean at D10: post-14819-0-34905900-1416170443_thumb.g

 

Though last Winter that was usually the death knell...

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

very interesting and almost in complete agreement with ECM ens mean at T240 - possibility of a closed Scandi HP as we approach D10 - now that's a genuine opportunity for cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Regarding the potential "record warmth"...I'm just looking at the 2m temps on the ECM for the 24th, and they're barely double figures despite the 850s being in double figures themselves. Even these double figure temps are only in the far southwest, in fact the nights are rather chilly.

 

At this time of year with lower temps on the continent, the upper air temps can be quite mis leading when winds are coming from the South-South Easterly quarter, if you want record temps then the winds ideally should be veering more South-South Westerly so its picking up more warmer waters from the Atlantic. 

 

One thing for sure, there is certainly no real chilly weather on the way and night time minimums should stay above frost levels.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

This wont happen. to be fair its a long way off and lots of changes in the model output by then,,,

I think the warmth is nailed on for here but in the UK it might be a more se sourced flow which would make a difference. Although some people might be worried about this southerly its actually a positive sign for those looking for cold in the medium term because its not some hideous mild drizzly sw flow because of a strong jet running over the top. These digs south of the jet are what we need to see because if we get that dig in the right place all that warm air heading north will help by WAA to inflate any ridging to the east of troughing.

 

In this case you want a long draw southerly into western Greenland to help bring the shortwave more south closer to the UK then off se'wards, this will mean the high is further north and the cold pool doesn't head just into mainland Europe.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

attachicon.gifeps_z500a_5d_exatl_61.png

 

for SM - 10/15 day mean + anomoly.

Beat me to it but yes remarkably strong anomaly for such a long way away.

 

Unfortunately the 850's remain slightly above average by then, but no telling what the situation at the surface may be.

 

The best note by that stage is the continuation of WAA towards the Greenland locale as a result of the longwave pattern.

 

SK

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Yeovilton meteogram

 

courtesy www.weatherbell.com

 

yes knocker - note the high daytime readings correspond to the high nightime ones.  guess it depends which model is right and if the nights stay cloudy or not.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Cheers BA-/SK

 

that means the T2Ms will be very cold on the 10-15 Debilt ENS.

 

Looking forward to Weerplaaza link to see how many sub -10c DP's there are! hoping for 10!!!!!

 

 

 

I've got access to the T2Ms for Germany (not quite De Bilt but good enough), indeed very cold, the ENS mean is a good 3c below for a significant period.

Edited by Nick L
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Cheers BA-/SK

 

that means the T2Ms will be very cold on the 10-15 Debilt ENS.

 

Looking forward to Weerplaaza link to see how many sub -10c DP's there are! hoping for 10!!!!!

 

PS heres the T2M's

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

Also the control has snow!

 

fwiw, the control would deliver snow here aswell though not sustained as less cold air heads north a day or so later.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Don't know if it got posted yet - the ECM T240 mean chart. Since the ECM mean has a reasonable track record even at this range, in my experience, this for me is the best chart of the winter yet for cold. If the HP gets established over Scandi, temperatures will get close to freezing before long.

 

EDM1-240.GIF?16-0

 

ECM, as has been documented, pretty similar - though I generally dislike T240 for consistency, the fact it is similar to the mean is noteworthy.

 

GFS Op has a go too:

 

gfs-0-192.png?12

 

GEFS mean not quite there but wouldn't take much

 

gens-21-1-240.png?12

 

ECM usually better than GFS at modelling Scandi, in my opinion, so for me it's Game On!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

ECM remains bullish in its output of a scandi high developing - and a significant one to boot, GFS not far off. ECM does tend to do better with forecasting highs to our NE as opposed to GFS, 2012/2013 winter saw it outperform GFS in this respect hands down.

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

The two Polar Vortex lobes are split at day 4 on the 18z, on the 12z it's still together.

 

gfsnh-0-90.png?18gfsnh-0-96.png?12

 

I think the 18z will be a much better run.

 

Also the flow is more SE than southerly on the 18z, so those hoping for very mild temperatures will be very disappointed indeed...

Edited by Barry95
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