Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[knocker]

Another take on goings on in the Pacific.

 

 

Severe Weather Blog â€@blizzardof96

The PSD GEFS is handling the pac jet extension/tropical forcing quite well. Should go to E trough by ~12/10 IMO:

 

 

[shaky]

Another take on goings on in the Pacific.

what does that mean?

[bluearmy]

what does that mean?

It means another e American trough but at some point, we will hopefully het one of these without the e Canadian vortex in tandem.

[492]

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=eur&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=000
00Z UKMO shows low pressure to south of UK right through to T+144. Initially it moves eastwards keeping the south of the UK in a chilly NE'ly but later extends back westwards with the next Atlantic ridge poised to nose in to the UK perhaps being propped up by the westward travelling low. Meanwhile at 10h a discrete low formed between the Azores and SW Ireland presumably on the cold front but now disappeard which could be a sign of a tendency for low pressure to form in this region or it could just be a red herring.
http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

[shaky]

It means another e American trough but at some point, we will hopefully het one of these without the e Canadian vortex in tandem.

which would hopefully mean more chance of a favourable ridge in the atlantic and into greenland therefore better for cold and snow prospects! !

[Man With Beard]

To end the thread - good example of how small differences at T144 have a big knock on a T192. Looking at GFS old and new at 144:

The PV around Hudson Bay is a flatter and a little less developed in the parallel. But it's all coming our way. Check the difference it causes by T192 - the strange tropical low also a part of the interaction here:

Who'd make a forecast for D8 based on that!!?

Edited December 1, 2014 by rjbw

[fergieweather]

Strong EPS signal, note UKMO in briefing based on 00z suites, for meridional pattern to wane and be replaced with zonal into trend period (to 10-15d). Shannon Entropy fairly low (so reasonable confidence) on this broadscale outcome, albeit scope of developments in the nearer mid-range still remain a tad tricky.

[mountain shadow]

Strong EPS signal, note UKMO in briefing based on 00z suites, for meridional pattern to wane and be replaced with zonal into trend period (to 10-15d). Shannon Entropy fairly low (so reasonable confidence) on this broadscale outcome, albeit scope of developments in the nearer mid-range still remain a tad tricky.

 

Thanks Fergie, it is always the case that uncertainty decreasess in a zonal pattern. I think most have given up on any sustained proper cold until after the 20th at least and possibility into the new Year.

 

The MJO is a little better than yesterday with a couple of runs showing a decent amplitude in Phase 8 which would encourage heights into Southern Greenland.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

[shaky]

Strong EPS signal, note UKMO in briefing based on 00z suites, for meridional pattern to wane and be replaced with zonal into trend period (to 10-15d). Shannon Entropy fairly low (so reasonable confidence) on this broadscale outcome, albeit scope of developments in the nearer mid-range still remain a tad tricky.

i guess with nothing certain in the mid range anything that does happen within that time will have an effect there after (10 to 15 day range)!! If you dont mind me asking what is the uncertainty in the mid range fergie? !

[blizzard81]

Strong EPS signal, note UKMO in briefing based on 00z suites, for meridional pattern to wane and be replaced with zonal into trend period (to 10-15d). Shannon Entropy fairly low (so reasonable confidence) on this broadscale outcome, albeit scope of developments in the nearer mid-range still remain a tad tricky.

Looks to be cool zonality as opposed to raging south westerlies though. I'm certainly glass half full today.

[Paul]

A bit late, but locking this one now - new thread in 2 mins.

 

New thread now open

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81934-model-output-discussion-the-start-of-winter/