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Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

At this moment the cooler spell predicted for the 6th/7th will b very much like the one before, a quick polar maritime blast before the Azores high ridges back in

EDH1-144.GIF?30-12

Beyond this Arctic heights still continue to exist (albeit quite weak) with the polar vortex moving fluidly around this. No sign as of yet of developing something more significant.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Having flicked through the output and read a couple of posts I have come to the conclusion that the week ahead is getting steadily colder.UKMO at 144 says cold that's as far as it goes.ECM cold run.Gfs also cold.Welcome winter.Most of the charts have been posted above and how some find fault at this early juncture is open to debate.

Hi

Agree with this and your other post. However till we get the SSW, and this is probably more likely late December than middle December, we have to rely on the trop to get us some wintry stuff. Just pointing out that at the moment there is nothing to suggest a trop led cold spell is upcoming. Yes there is a cooler (-2-3c) back end to next week but this is a direct result of the PV movement from west to east, before and after just seasonal temps IMO. I am expecting after around the 12th December more amplification in the NH but as to where that occurs is anyone's guess. ECM is promising in that regard and GFS is trending that way (albeit slowly). I think most members are more interested in if we are going to get a snowy spell in December rather than just normal December fare, and the models are not on board with that, yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

So UKMO gives up the ghost this morning and joins the others in their flat nirvana. The ECM once it decided to drop the more amplified upstream has become progressively more flat with each run.

 

Overall after alot of uncertainty the models have settled on a rather uneventful outlook. Turning somewhat colder with high pressure never too far away.

 

The ECM has dropped its mini tease re the high retrogressing and unfortunately is actually in tune with whats expected over the USA, a flat zonal picture is expected over there.

 

If you want to draw on a positive at least the PV hasn't reformed into one foreboding blob to the north but unless theres some change in the outlook upstream then theres no way of drawing south some much colder air.

 

On a slightly Schadenfreude view at least we won't have to put up with the Americans stealing all the cold and snow, its looking much milder over there with any cold reserved for well north of the border .

 

At least theres no deluge in the offering and it will feel a bit more seasonal but any deep cold for the timebeing is out of reach.

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Posted
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight

The atlantic low which has now transferred to the western Med is drawing up some exceptionally warm air from Africa with 28 C at Palermo in Sicily at midnight. Some of the warm air is filtering into parts of mainly southern europe. The low is modelled to expand NE wards over the next few days and is expected to back the flow over southern UK drawing in colder air form further east. At the same time the atlantic ridge is modelled to extend across the middle of the UK. An increasingly cold week looks likely for much of the UK as the warm air currently over the UK is gradually replaced by a feed of colder low level drier air from northern Europe.
http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

Edited by 492
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Posted
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire

been on winter of 79 link and in spirit of lighting the mood, the attached chart would rare in deed.

the link must broke HA,HA. But that must be some kind of super strat warming.

post-2248-0-08167700-1417338735_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Looking at the GEM control, it again does not support the D10 GEM op: post-14819-0-95615600-1417338708_thumb.p

 

Its mean is more in line with the GFS mean:

 

post-14819-0-48563500-1417338788_thumb.p post-14819-0-17960200-1417338797_thumb.p 

 

The ECM mean does not marry with the GEM or GFS mean in that it sends energy through Siberia feeding the N. Pacific PV lobe, allowing the Greenland/NE Canada PV to drain. Completely different NH synoptics and important for D10+ for the UK NH quadrant:

 

post-14819-0-21647700-1417339048_thumb.p

 

Bearing in mind GFS has proven better at the D8-10 pattern of late I slightly favour their outcome. Good call for the UKMO pros to go with the GFS over ECM a couple of days ago re the mid week ridge.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

been on winter of 79 link and in spirit of lighting the mood, the attached chart would rare in deed.the link must broke HA,HA. But that must be some kind of super strat warming.

It's a July chart mark - Ukmo no longer release the raw global model pre T96.

nothing much to add this morning. Slowly slowly (probably too slowly for most of you!). still a seasonal first half December beckons but nothing that would provide a lot of interest for most coldies on here who will only be happy when they see -15c isotherms approaching from the ne.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A glance at the GEFS and ECM anomalies this morning.

 

Broad agreement at T168 with troughs Canada - Greenland - Russia. HP Siberia/Pole and a swathe of HP America to Europe. Surface analysis much the same as now with HP dominating the Atlantic and LP relegated to the north centred around Iceland.

 

At T240 the similarities take a parting of the ways. Amplification upstream and the Canadian trough now aligned south from the pole down the eastern seaboard with a branch line just west of Norway. HP eastern Atlantic and eastern Europe.

 

The ECM has the HP America to mid Atlantic but the Canadian trough spreads east with branches to Russia and south through the UK into N. Africa, HP over the Pole.

 

Having said all that the surface analysis is still the domination of the HP in the eastern Atlantic.

 

For the life of me I can't see where the next cold breeze is coming from. I'm quite concerned.

 

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

Apologies the charts loaded willy nilly, as they say.

post-12275-0-87728100-1417342201_thumb.p

post-12275-0-53995000-1417342211_thumb.p

post-12275-0-75823000-1417342222_thumb.p

post-12275-0-53923900-1417342232_thumb.p

post-12275-0-17993600-1417342243_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

Yes, ECM has all but dropped it's several northerlies, so too has GEM and the models have very much moved into line.

However, we have also lost the dreadful Biscay High charts Gfs was putting out a few days ago so we are left with very benign conditions with dry weather a few frosts and temperatures never far from normal.

For early winter it could be worse and it many ways it's the ultimate blank canvas and anything could happen.

Be thankful that you didn't book a late November break to the Canary Islands which are enduring repeated storms as cut off lows slide underneath the mid Atlantic High, in Lanzarote on Friday the capital Arrecife recorded 130mm of rain, for this near desert island that's about a years worth!

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I can promise knocker that most breezes in the next two weeks will feel cold!

Still think Decent amplification will appear week 2 somewhere between the east coast of America and w Russia. Exactly where remains the question. If it doesn't, then the alternative is probably a sinking upper trough which would be cold and unsettled.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

Knocker,

It wouldn't take a massive shift in Global Pressure patterns to shift the Atlantic blocking high north and east and develop a through into Scandinavia thus opening the cold floodgates from the north.

The models have tried but failed to do this recently but it could be only a matter of time.

I Would be much more concerned if our Atlantic High was a massive Bartlett stretching from the Azores to the Balkans, now that would be hard to shift but the current set up could (not saying it will) change very quickly.

The problem for NW members is that Winter starts tomorrow and given the right conditions it could be very cold and snowy like 2010 but the reality is that snow in early December is as rare as Steve M's Hens teeth and always has been.

I still believe in the OPI!

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

I'm actually more optimistic this morning after peering through the ensembles, as a number of them seek to push pressure, albeit late on, towards Greenland - as did the operational of course. See below

 

gens-12-1-384.png

 

gens-10-1-384.png

 

gens-13-1-384.png

 

 

gens-14-1-384.png

 

gens-16-1-384.png

 

 

There's one or two others, plus then the average mean anomaly chart that shows positive heights edging into Southern Greenland

 

gens-22-1-384.png

 

Just demonstrates that even when we think all is going wrong, there are still plenty of options - even good ones in the long run - that could develop at short notice

 

EDIT: In relation to the above, this is not a "desperate attempt" by some to insist that it will go colder - hell it may go milder, and with my early morning starts that will suit me down to the ground. But it would be misleading to say there is no possibility of cold at all. In fact, if you look at that anomaly chart alone, there would be many in most winters who would love it as a starting point on November 30th! All i'm saying, in the midst of mild weather induced depression, is that there are plenty of options around if we care to look for them.

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro

Still positives from the GFS today shows the PV energy shifting west-East and this trend has been continuing .

Its when not if we start to see hights rise up into greenlandpost-19059-0-28960000-1417344734_thumb.jpost-19059-0-93652100-1417344773_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

I'm actually more optimistic this morning after peering through the ensembles, as a number of them seek to push pressure, albeit late on, towards Greenland - as did the operational of course. See below

 

gens-12-1-384.png

 

gens-10-1-384.png

 

gens-13-1-384.png

 

 

gens-14-1-384.png

 

 

gens-16-1-384.png

 

 

 

There's one or two others, plus then the average mean anomaly chart that shows positive heights edging into Southern Greenland

 

gens-22-1-384.png

 

Just demonstrates that even when we think all is going wrong, there are still plenty of options - even good ones in the long run - that could develop at short notice

 

Don't know what happened there, here's my post...

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

You can if you move it on a few frames..

 

gfsnh-0-264.png?0

But that isn't 168 as his post was commenting on.

 

I was replying to his original statement " 168 is full of Eastern promise" not 180 or 192

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

It's a July chart mark - Ukmo no longer release the raw global model pre T96.

nothing much to add this morning. Slowly slowly (probably too slowly for most of you!). still a seasonal first half December beckons but nothing that would provide a lot of interest for most coldies on here who will only be happy when they see -15c isotherms approaching from the ne.

 

Can still get the pre-96 hr charts from Meteocentre. :)

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=eur&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=000

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

Is this the PV moving to Greenland?

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Strat PV or Trop PV?

Thats the tropopause temperature charts there so im not sure you could answer your question using those charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Is this the PV moving to Greenland?

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

It's already there.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Strat PV or Trop PV?

Thats the tropopause temperature charts there so im not sure you could answer your question using those charts.

They aren't actually trop. temp charts but potential temp charts..They don't use the WMO definition of the Tropopause but Isentropic

surfaces making the transition from the troposphere to stratosphere. You can locate various features, such as blocking, by looking at the evolution of potential temperature on the dynamic tropopause. So it should be run in sequence so you actually can see the evolution of the air masses and features but I couldn't do that so posted two charts instead to indicate the direction of movement from Russia to Greenland..

 

That's my theory anyway

 

EDIT: an example here/

http://www.knmi.nl/~vries/Research/research_wavebreaking.html

Edited by knocker
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