Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[Barry12]

It still won't be mild at least!

 

 

 

Day 7 isn't a bad chart, so let's hope its wrong after that!

 

Edited November 17, 2014 by Barry95

[knocker]

Four day run of the GEFs 12z anomalies starting at T240. If anything the Atlantic trough and the Scandinavian HP have moved slightly east and a touch more amplification upstream. So the block still in place with the HP centred to the N/NE and low pressure SW of Greenland.

 

This drift to east continues in later frames with a lessening of upstream amplification.

 

Courtesy weatherbell.com

 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

It still won't be mild at least!

 

Just wet then

slow moving deep trough over the UK, plenty of heavy rain from slow moving fronts. 

Pretty dire weather to be honest. Before than near average temperatures with the exception of Saturday where we could hit the mid-teens.

As I said earlier, I would rather take the GFS solution and hold back the Atlantic systems due to flooding issues down here. 

At least Scandinavia is starting to cool nicely. 

Edited November 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

Broadly similar patterns shown by the models upto T144hrs, all the models apart from the JMA phase the shortwave with the upstream troughing.

 

This allows the troughing to get pulled further east before going ne, the colder solutions will likely be those that have the shallower shortwave further to the northwest at the phasing point and those that have more digging south of the upstream troughing.

 

The ECM is pretty consistent with its morning output which keeps a stalemate going, at this range the boundary between colder continental and milder Atlantic air could change and this might get interesting if theres favourable trough disruption however there is a point of no return with the pattern, the phase point at T120hrs is likely to be pivotal too far east and its game over, if further outputs pull this further west then its good news for coldies.

[TonyH]

It still won't be mild at least!

 

It will be this weekend!

Edited November 17, 2014 by TonyH

[Barry12]

It will be this weekend!

 

Only on Saturday, mild air has moved away by Sunday according to the ECM

 

[Paul]

12z GFS parallel now coming in

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfs-update-2014;sess=

[TonyH]

Only on Saturday, mild air has moved away by Sunday according to the ECM

Might still be Sunday too

Edited November 17, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove deleted quote.

[shaky]

Everything further west on the gfs parallel at just 72 hours! ! Shortwave doesn't really join up with the low across greenland aswell! !

[blizzard81]

Everything further west on the gfs parallel at just 72 hours! ! Shortwave doesn't really join up with the low across greenland aswell! !

Yeah, the block is stronger on the parallel run - you couldn't make it up really!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Just a quick question. Is the parallel run same, better or worse than the gfs operational?

[Altohumorous]

No change really. Very gradual cool-down over north and central and east Europe. Is the stasis as it stands just indicative of the more positive AO?

Will the ongoing block/stalemate and gradual cooling lead to some sort of change of orientation of the meridional set-up that is keeping us in this very average weather? Over European Continent even? Can't see it unless the mid-lat block also goes, which would surely mean the Atlantic comes further east. And I can't see the block really going for a while, or changing.

At times it looks like going a bit more north, at times more south, it certainly doesn't look like it will go northwest, where we need it for any real cold here. Will the orientation of the meridional set-up just continue? In which case regardless of increased northern block potential the major features are not going to align any differently.

The only real hope of change is to move everything east but I don't know even if that happens will the pattern remain the same, in order to bring us northerlies?

[ANYWEATHER]

A very complexed and confusing  outlook from gfs and ecm from the 12zs and probably the 06zs. The ebbing and flowing from the models is quite amazing. I think we will have to wait to tomorrow to see a more clearer outlook but even that seems unikely. Tonights output seems that the ecm has the colder run   

[bluearmy]

Not much of huge interest to take from a day that's thrown out 'holding pattern' runs. However, I am very interested that the highest resolution model ( ignoring the para ) wants to take the most energy se and disrupt when it could easily take it ne. It wasn't too many winters ago that the diving trough was the signature of the cold season.

[snowice]

Not much of huge interest to take from a day that's thrown out 'holding pattern' runs. However, I am very interested that the highest resolution model ( ignoring the para ) wants to take the most energy se and disrupt when it could easily take it ne. It wasn't too many winters ago that the diving trough was the signature of the cold season.

why do you ignore the parallel run from gfs

[blizzard81]

Not much of huge interest to take from a day that's thrown out 'holding pattern' runs. However, I am very interested that the highest resolution model ( ignoring the para ) wants to take the most energy se and disrupt when it could easily take it ne. It wasn't too many winters ago that the diving trough was the signature of the cold season.

Absolutely. I remember Nov 2009 very well and apart from getting soaking wet every day, I remember looking at the output and thinking how unusual it was to see the negative nw to se tilt of the systems coming in off the atlantic. Very different from the usual south west to north east track. This Nov is looking very similar.

[Biggin]

Two contradictory posts there.

 

if we take the tropospheric models at face value, the first statement looks more likely.

 

 

however, i would think neither would be correct when we have this on the cards-

 

 I am sorry but what does this show??

[bobbydog]

 I am sorry but what does this show??

 

stratospheric warming. have a look here- http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=  choose chart type and away you go.

 

have a look in the strat thread. it will help you understand what these charts mean (not that i'm an expert by any means!)

[Polar Maritime]

Again the GFSP shows the Atlantic winning out towards the end of the Month, In turn pushing the block East drawing fronts in on a chilly Pm flow from the N/W. High Pressure pulls way up into the Arctic.. 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[TSNWK]

Again the GFSP shows the Atlantic winning out, In turn pushing the block East drawing fronts in on a chilly Pm flow from the N/W. High Pressure pulls way up into the Arctic.. 

 

 

Polar vortex looks to my untrained eyes the tightest and most organised so far this autumn on those panels

[bluearmy]

why do you ignore the parallel run from gfs

 

because there are apparently some issues with it and its not clear to me if the stats for it are PRSH14 or PRX.  the former showing not much better than GFS old and for a model at 13 km, it should be matching the ecm.

 

looking at the parallel 12z now its out, it also send energy se but a big chunk of the split goes north.

 

i note that the NOAA cpc charts also have the mean trough anomoly towards iberia.

[IDO]

Not much of huge interest to take from a day that's thrown out 'holding pattern' runs. However, I am very interested that the highest resolution model ( ignoring the para ) wants to take the most energy se and disrupt when it could easily take it ne. It wasn't too many winters ago that the diving trough was the signature of the cold season.

As long as you are not referring to a D10 ECM chart then that gives some hope. The D7 mean bias for ECM 0z and 12z show a clear bias for lower heights to the south of the UK since this pattern started:

As expected with the GFS the lower height bias is UK to Scandi, due to their keenness to bring the Atlantic in:

ECM D10 mean:

Edited November 17, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Altohumorous]

The strat warming might help change things with the mid-lat block?

Edited November 17, 2014 by Altohumorous

[Polar Maritime]

The last chart finishes with a very disorganised PV, Heights pushed well up into the Poles and the Jet way South..

 

 

Edited November 17, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

is that the gfs showing more height bias over greenland than ecm ???

 

anyway, at risk of being mischievous, the very end of the parallel over the north pacific .....................

 

anyway, NOAA cpc are happy with the ecm theme

 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2014 by bluearmy