Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[Mucka]

The signal for a pattern change end of Nov are gathering strength. There is no standard zonal signal though which has to be good with the general trend being for low pressure rolling over the block and into Europe with MLB appearing further West which would give a N/NE type flow which is what I am looking for.

 

P10 as an example.

 

 

 

Alternatively Steve's slider is an option with low heights extending Westward under the block giving an Easterly type.

 

I will gladly take either and the output is still good for prospects of an early winter cold pattern setting up, just no strong signal as yet.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Typing up my LRF final version as wanted to see last developments to top and tail.   Models now getting very interesting, GFS 12z come on...how close? 

 

Big Steve's commentary, I'm onside....a BIG switch is coming and we won't have to wait until Christmas either, indeed get ready for winter!  Coz I tell you what......I think its coming big style.

 

BFTP

Edited November 15, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[492]

I have not been keeping an eye on the distance between the long waves but I seem to remember reading that if the distance between the troughs or ridges in greater than around 4000 miles then the waves can start to move backwards. Perhaps this is happening and the models are now catching up ?.

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles continue to slow a cooling trend final 3rd of Nov

 

 

 

Nice ECM on the way out - bit of something for everyone at 192

 

Edited November 15, 2014 by Mucka

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014111512/ECH1-192.GIF?15-0

 

Sliders + Ridge alert on ECM....

[Cloud 10]

ECM 12z lights the polar fuse at 216 hrs...

 

[Eugene]

GFS ensembles continue to slow a cooling trend final 3rd of Nov

 

 

 

Nice ECM on the way out - bit of something for everyone at 192

 

 

 

Yes certainly no sign of anywhere near record breaking 2M temps for end of next week on the GFS 12Z ensembles.

[nick sussex]

Some dramatic developments this evening and model chaos breaks out. The vast differences between the ECM 00hrs and 12hrs should be a warning to just how volatile the outputs have become.

 

Overall the Atlantic assault looks at least put back and more likely at this point is unlikely to happen anytime soon, however what the end result is for the UK is very uncertain.

 

Theres a huge difference between the ECM and GFS although at this point most in here wouldn't be too unhappy with either trend, there are still phasing issues and you can see what a difference this makes by the cleaner transition of the ECM 12hrs compared to its earlier 00hrs run.

[The Eagle]

Interesting fact regarding the 12z ECM is that the winds are variations of easterly all the way to 240 hours. 

Edited November 15, 2014 by The Eagle

[Barry12]

Wheres the Atlantic/mild southerly everyone has been on about?

 

Brilliant run from the ECM, we get an Easterly from day 4, and still have it at day 10, with heights building towards Greenland!

 

[Summer Sun]

High pressure heading north leaving us with NE'ly winds

 

 

Charts like this in the reliable and its game on

 

Edited November 15, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Tom Jarvis]

Lol from zonal dross to northerly in 48 hours just goes to show not to underestimate the power of the block.

Sorry on phone so cannot use charts

Edited November 15, 2014 by Tom Jarvis

[tollgateiow]

ECM 240!! The Great Winter of 2014/15 Begins.....

Edited November 15, 2014 by tollgateiow

[ronan]

Would be helpful to have charts with your posts. Thanks

[johnholmes]

The first question to ask, I have no idea as I have not looked. Is the 12z EC similar to its issue 12z Friday. If so some support for its idea if not then why is it going to happen when 12 hours ago it was not?

[Barry12]

The first question to ask, I have no idea as I have not looked. Is the 12z EC similar to its issue 12z Friday. If so some support for its idea if not then why is it going to happen when 12 hours ago it was not?

 

Because it's got 12 hours of extra data!

 

We do need some support, at just 96 hours the ECM is different from all the other models. How many times has the ECM been wrong at 96 hours though?

That's 10 days!

 

We get an Easterly at day 4!

[bluearmy]

So the immovable sceuro ridge is going to become a trough within 10 days? I'll take a bit more convincing than one ECM op run!

[492]

The first question to ask, I have no idea as I have not looked. Is the 12z EC similar to its issue 12z Friday. If so some support for its idea if not then why is it going to happen when 12 hours ago it was not?

There has been a trend over the last few days to backtrack in favour of the block.

[phil nw.]

One line exchanges are not very helpful to others who read this for our views.

Let's try for some more substance than that ,much better to read.

Thanks.  

[Nick L]

Uninformative one liners are creeping in here, please keep them to a minimum or posts may start disappearing.

[Captain Shortwave]

So the immovable sceuro ridge is going to become a trough within 10 days? I'll take a bit more convincing than one ECM op run!

I have to agree with you there. The ECM tonight would make Usain Bolt look like a bit of a sloth. 

Not seeing the possibility of Greenland heights in the near future. That said heights to our north east drawing in a chilly east/south easterly is certainly a possible longer term scenario. 

Edited November 15, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[phil nw.]

In fact i have moved a few recent posts to the Model ramps thread to keep this thread on topic.

[blizzard81]

Can't wait for the ECM ensembles tonight. Lets hope they show big support for it's Op. I noticed the ECM control run

this morning went quite cold in the last three days of the run. I wonder if was akin to the op from tonight's 12z ?

[Robbie Garrett]

Almost 4 years to the day the models picked up on the dramatic changes, they again pick up on all the signals for another possible early and cold start. Could this be a rinse/repeat or better?

 

2014 15th 12z run

 

 

2010 15th 12z Run

 

 

 

Oh and guess what else it did?

 

 

The same as todays.  Defaulted to Atlantic...

 

 

 

 

But Santa Clause had other ideas that year.

 

Edited November 15, 2014 by Robbie Garrett

[Nick L]

And in addition to keeping one liners out, any ramps/moans belong in the ramps/moans thread please