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heavy snow in Dublin from that stuff coming over from Ireland - let's hope it makes it across the Irish sea intact

couple of heavy showers earlier,windy with clear skies now,that could be it for the night now!

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Might miss Wales all together this "polar low", doesnt seem to be coming straight down but more south easterly track, might scrape the north east of Wales, take note that I said MIGHT.

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Might miss Wales all together this "polar low", doesnt seem to be coming straight down but more south easterly track, might scrape the north east of Wales, take note that I said MIGHT.

I've been pessimistic lately but I think its time yo be optimistic now that we had unexpected snow here.

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heavy snow in Dublin from that stuff coming over from Ireland - let's hope it makes it across the Irish sea intact

Doesn't look like it, it's already fragmenting.

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looks a bit of a direct hit on euro 4 - but ya never can tell eh

 

15013000_2912.gif

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Doesn't look like it, it's already fragmenting.

I'm not so sure about that currently ^_^ 

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Doesn't look like it, it's already fragmenting.

radar gets a bit dodgy in the irish sea itself - so you never know

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Anyone in the north west hoping this low has our name on it?

Ddim yn meddwl Gewn ni llawer o eira mond o groeslon I fyny.

Don't think we will get much snow maybe from groeslon upwards.

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I've been pessimistic lately but I think its time yo be optimistic now that we had unexpected snow here.

My track guess is NW England, maybe Cheshire gap then travelling SE across England, based on what im seeing on sat/radar that is. If the winds were more northerly rather than N Westerly then I think we would have better chances. Of course it can/will change. I for one am hoping for a direct Wales hit. 

*Edit*

Any snow Wales will have tonight will be snow that was already in the forecast, not from the polar low, in my opinion based on the projected path of the low, I might be talking utter cow pat though

Edited by andy989

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Ddim yn meddwl Gewn ni llawer o eira mond o groeslon I fyny.

Don't think we will get much snow maybe from groeslon upwards.

Ella wir, wedi cael eira bach trw dydd ond yn toddi yn sydun. Gawni weld.

Maybe, had snow showers all day but quickly melts, we'll see. 

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Ella wir, wedi cael eira bach trw dydd ond yn toddi yn sydun. Gawni weld.

Maybe, had snow showers all day but quickly melts, we'll see. 

 

Yr un peth yn wir 'da ni yn y de, cawodydd o eira, dechrau glynu wedyn toddi - angen y sdwff iawn arno ni nawr yn lle'r chwarae bach 'ma!

 

Same true here, snow showers, starts to settle then melts - we need the proper stuff now not this child's play!

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Was in Holyhead earlier today and there was a belter of a snow shower going on. Started off with the little polystyrene balls type to big fat snow flakes.  Didn't last long though and didn't stick except for on grass verges. 

 

Been reading a lot about this polar low and that it will come down the Irish sea, I'm a bit (well a lot) confused as the Met Office yellow warning is for near enough the whole country except for flipping Anglesey again.  Does anyone know why this is?  Does this polar low have something against us? lol  Glad to see a lot of you have seen some snow at last :)

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Is it actually a polar low or are people confusing matters?

 

people a lot more knowledgeable than me are unsure...so that clears that up

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people a lot more knowledgeable than me are unsure...so that clears that up

Its got Wales' name on it don't worry, tonight is the night.

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Its got Wales' name on it don't worry, tonight is the night.

 

All of the south-easterners in the 'polar low' thread are going for an east midlands-south event. Surprise surprise :rofl: Fingers crossed we get a nice surprise like this afternoon!

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ECM and NMM have it east, missing most of wales.

Euro4 has it further west, the BBC graphics that were posted earlier are using the euro4. The further west the low tracks the better the chance for snow in wales. It's going to be a tricky forecast. Even if it does track further west, you want to be probably 200 metres plus for accumulating snow. Ian Fergie is on now so we will see what he says. Ian using the euro4 by the looks of it. Goes snow for most of wales but looks like rain on the South Wales coast, if the low tracks slightly further west then we are in business!

The further north and east you are the better.

Edited by bradythemole

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All of the south-easterners in the 'polar low' thread are going for an east midlands-south event. Surprise surprise :rofl: Fingers crossed we get a nice surprise like this afternoon!

All I can say is ignore, they'll say what they want to happen not what's likely to happen lol. Anyway no one knows, better off expecting nothing then we'll get a nice surprise.

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Had quite a few snow showers here in Swansea today again right down to sea level, no sticking though of course.

 

Tonight is very interesting with the development of that low pressure system referred to as a polar low by Ian F on twitter.

You can read more about polar lows here: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/The-Polar-low---the-arctic-hurricane.htm

 

As you can read they develop over warmer waters when colder polar/arctic air is advected over it.

 

​The exact track will come down to radar watching and there is already discrepancies showing up between the NetWx Model and the EURO 4 for example in terms of precipitation distribution.

 

You can see the low pressure system on the 850hpa upper air charts here (Friday @ 3am):

post-7888-0-33067500-1422556951_thumb.gi

A track running through NW Wales south eastwards to effect E & SE wales with quite a more organised area of precipitation:

post-7888-0-22258600-1422557125_thumb.gi

 

Now lets look at the NetWx model for precipitation distribution overnight:

post-7888-0-41222000-1422557215_thumb.pnpost-7888-0-49528300-1422557232_thumb.pn

 

I would say the NetWx takes it slightly further south and west in comparison to the EURO 4. (Looking at 12z data)

 

Using the EURO 4 to look at dew points overnight they appear to be around 0C to 1C:

post-7888-0-21909100-1422557442_thumb.gi

 

Id say on this information NE & Mid Wales quite likely to see some snow further south and west it depends on how much precipitation is around (if any) and the dew point temperature. Its worth pointing out that during this period slightly warmer upper air temps move in to be around -5c to -4c.

 

Just some thoughts thats all, will be interesting to see how it actually works out.

 

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Interesting drive home over the A465 winds drifting the snow (although not that deep) at highest point. Slow going.

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What's your thoughts on the polar low Andy?

the low centre itself is on the far upper corner of the radar right now - so I'll go with euro 4s take on things for now meaning a decent hit for us - the south east will get this but after we've finished with it lol

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Strange temps here gone from 1 deg earlier up to 3.1 now ,wind picking up too.

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Its got Wales' name on it don't worry, tonight is the night.

Pretty sure it will be rain or sleet for most of us, the usual hill snow in the north and east. It has a mild sector (relatively speaking). Of course if it is a true polar low it may have died out before it even gets here!

Edited by TonyH

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