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Paul

Wales - Weather Chat

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Suddenly it's snowing heavily in caernarfon... That was a shock

A nice little blob on the radar!

I'm in Bangor during the day, and its been cloudy here all morning with the odd grain / rain /sleet, and just had that shower that's over c'fon now. But we are on the edge of it, so it wasn't too heavy. It started off as rain/sleet. Cleared away now.

Still a bit of cloud on the satellite, and one or two very small echoes on the 10.30 radar so wouldn't rule out another shower or two developing ofshore from the N coast.

Edited by Ian Price

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I think we're too far west in Wales. Midlands will get the most of it. 12z should nail it down to yay or nay.

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Nah it will shift 100 miles west at 06h and they will be gutted!

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Borderline for here on the latest 6z WRF NMM!

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011906/nmmuk-1-37-0.png?19-12

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011906/nmm_uk1-1-36-0.png?19-12

 

 

Inland with elevation required I'd imagine though. Seems further west anyway!

Edited by Ian Price

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Was watching the TV this morning and headlines are big freeze where granted they had snow in Scotland and cold temperatures it is January after all ! But nothing as cold as they were saying cold in the back garden here but the sun is warm nice in fact winter is ticking by again back to mild again after the weekend boooo

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As tomorrow evening progresses and dew points start to drop, there is a chance the rain could turn to snow at lower levels briefly, however I think by the time the colder air digs in and dew points drop enough the precipitation will be gone.

Edited by soupsurfer7

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What do people think the chances of seeing snow in south east Wales at 350m asl this week?!? Seems no one is willing to sticky their neck out and go with one way or other.

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350m defo snow 


Was watching the TV this morning and headlines are big freeze where granted they had snow in Scotland and cold temperatures it is January after all ! But nothing as cold as they were saying cold in the back garden here but the sun is warm nice in fact winter is ticking by again back to mild again after the weekend boooo

'extremely small freeze' more like!

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350m defo snow 

'extremely small freeze' more like!

Super freeze in one of the papers lol.

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Anything to sell papers! Any one heard from that exacta weather man about the cripling winter we are having For 3 months ?

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Been a cold almost ice day here in Aber, frost remaining on grass and roofs in the shade and puddles remaining frozen all day! Been a lush crisp clear winters day! If only there was some snow!

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Temps are the coldest here for a while , already down to 0.5 deg c from à high of 5.6 earlier !

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Look at euro4. 32hours in and snow for at least 6 hours. Fingers crossed

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EURO4.  06Hz and 12hz, what a difference.

 

post-213-0-50738000-1421694401_thumb.gif post-213-0-28390900-1421694400_thumb.gif post-213-0-97415400-1421694398_thumb.gif :wallbash:

post-213-0-63966900-1421694397_thumb.gif post-213-0-16208700-1421694396_thumb.gif post-213-0-82261000-1421694394_thumb.gif post-213-0-47165000-1421694393_thumb.gif :rofl:

 

At least for some. Who knows which one will be closest.

 

However still no warnings out for Wales [and given earlier charts who could blame them. ]

 

At this rate it could stall over Ireland (not likely admittedly)

 

Cold here overnight with temps of -4c, and the grass is still frozen in the shade, first time this has happened this winter

 

(maybe the only time) :rofl:

Edited by J10

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The Euro 4 is quite interesting for N/C/E Wales it brings the front in overnight when dew points are lower these higher towards the south and west where rain seems more likely and quite heavy to.

 

Comparing the 06z to 12Z the feature seems to be digging further south on the 12z with slower progression eastwards.

06z: post-7888-0-83928900-1421694571_thumb.gi  12z: post-7888-0-09539300-1421694457_thumb.gi

 

12z Dew points with Rain/Snow distribution:

Dew Points:  post-7888-0-98866500-1421694644_thumb.gi  Rain/Snow:  post-7888-0-93445600-1421694635_thumb.gi

 

There will be some changing to the snow areas, as models fine tune the positioning of this occluded front but a few CM's possible especially in N and E Wales.

 

Jamie

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The Euro 4 is quite interesting for N/C/E Wales it brings the front in overnight when dew points are lower these higher towards the south and west where rain seems more likely and quite heavy to.

 

Comparing the 06z to 12Z the feature seems to be digging further south on the 12z with slower progression eastwards.

06z: attachicon.gif06z.gif  12z: attachicon.gif12z.gif

 

12z Dew points with Rain/Snow distribution:

Dew Points:  attachicon.gif15012106_1912.gif  Rain/Snow:  attachicon.gif15012106_1912-1.gif

 

There will be some changing to the snow areas, as models fine tune the positioning of this occluded front but a few CM's possible especially in N and E Wales.

 

Jamie

 

EURO4 is also forecasting heavy snow is forecast for Carmarthenshire in the early hours. as shown above, with accumulating snow forecast down into Coastal areas. 

 

So all bets are off !!!!!

 

post-213-0-16208700-1421694396_thumb.gif Heavy snow in the South West (be nice if it came off , wouldn't bet on it. )
Edited by J10

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EURO4 is also forecasting heavy snow is forecast for Carmarthenshire in the early hours. as shown above, with accumulating snow forecast down into Coastal areas. 

 

So all bets are off !!!!!

 

Heavy snow in the South West (be nice if it came off , wouldn't bet on it. )

 

Lol sleeting in Ireland atm.Saying that J10 evening post says snow showers :yahoo::oops:

Edited by keithlucky

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Dew points are too high for snow in the southwest. Rain is more than likely

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Currently -0.8°C here. Dew point -1.6°C.

Are we under cloud or not?

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Dew points are too high for snow in the southwest. Rain is more than likely

 

The problem is we don't know  the dew point in the middle of the snow band, considering temps in that areas are forecast 0-2c. with DP 1c on the coast, likely to be below freeing inland. A major flaw of what what we see on EURO4 is that Dew point modelling is less detailed than the previous NAE model.

 

if this 06Hz run came off, very low chance of snow, if this came off very decent chance of snow.

 

I am just posting the charts as they came out, and highlighting that nothing is nailed.

 

Personally I am not optimistic of the 12Hz coming off in the slightest.

Edited by J10
to soften my original comment

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The all important wind direction is the key for snow in setups like this a cold SSE-ly shows up later tomorrow SSE isn`t brilliant,SE is very good if it turns E/SE.

Need the east and not any SW wind to creep in useless with something like this system coming in.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited by Snowyowl9

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And another model which shows a different outcome, to highlight my original point that nothing is set in stone.

 

This is from the NMM model which goes for more of a North East split.

 

post-213-0-68849800-1421698035_thumb.jpg post-213-0-61779000-1421698029_thumb.jpg post-213-0-12774100-1421698023_thumb.jpg

 

post-213-0-63592100-1421698016_thumb.jpg post-213-0-17440700-1421698010_thumb.jpg post-213-0-00032000-1421698004_thumb.jpg

 

post-213-0-79214200-1421697997_thumb.jpg

Edited by J10

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Currently -0.8°C here. Dew point -1.6°C.

Are we under cloud or not?

Have a look :) 

It looks cloudy here but probably still high level hence its -2c and frosty.

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