Wales - Weather Chat

[dbaloo]

Think it's a baton down the hatches night.if there's 1 thing we can say is that our weather is never boring!!!!

[TonyH]

60mph here now, more big gusts than constant high wind, and the rain sounds more like hail with the speed its being blown,

but the worst is still an hour or two away i think.

There was a tornado in Haverfordwest yesterday evening if you fancy checking out the damage..

[PEMBS PIRATE]

There was a tornado in Haverfordwest yesterday evening if you fancy checking out the damage..

Yes Tony it was pretty interesting down this way, sleet, snow ,rain, thunderstorm all at the same time, that tornado made the news UK wide

[Jayfromcardiff]

Any chance of snow next week? Hope there is after last nights rubbish.

[WINTRY WALES]

Any chance of snow next week? Hope there is after last nights rubbish.

Not quite at the moment according to Mr Steve Murr's current analysis....we are just a tad too South as usual. Things can change but at the moment it is looking a midland North event. So mid Wales up may be fine...here's hoping for a correction of the cold to filter South. Would be good if an experienced poster could put a chart in showing what to look out for and for this to happen. Any takers on this guys and girls??

[TonyH]

Yes Tony it was pretty interesting down this way, sleet, snow ,rain, thunderstorm all at the same time, that tornado made the news UK wide

They need someone local to map the damage, take photos to assess its strength and track:

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/106717-haverfordwest-tornado-24-houses-damaged-jan-13th-2015/page__view__findpost__p__927801

[Cymro]

Not quite at the moment according to Mr Steve Murr's current analysis....we are just a tad too South as usual. Things can change but at the moment it is looking a midland North event. So mid Wales up may be fine...here's hoping for a correction of the cold to filter South. Would be good if an experienced poster could put a chart in showing what to look out for and for this to happen. Any takers on this guys and girls??

I wouldn't agree with that analysis in complete and what he did say was anywhere south of the m4 when it comes to frontal snow. But then there's strong model agreement on a cold week ahead and GFS and UKMO have many snow opportunities chucked in (as always with snow its far to early to forecast) but it looks like most places (As it currently stands) should see snow through tuesday/wednesday next week, this will definetly change but the trend is colder and its not boring cold either. As always with frontal systems from the west and lows it all depends on their source, how much mild air is mixed in and how far they track.

But if you took the models as gospel they are ready snowfest at the moment and I would say unless you lived on Skomer you are very likely to see snow next week(but then I would defy what I've just said in that, its far to early to say).

 

Meanwhile how about some wintry potential in the next 48hrs and over the weekend, methinks we will see some falling snow tomorrow again but very little settling.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Cymro

[dbaloo]

If you look at the model thread there are people saying no snow for anybody South of the Midlands,some saying only South of Devon and Cornwall will miss out.more will be revealed as we get closer to the more reliable timeframe.lets just get the cold first and hopefully the snowy bonus bald will arrive for us all

[TonyH]

60mph gust just now equalling the worst winds of last Winter, it really is a wild one here, with almost 20mm rain too.

[Snowmadsam]

Any chance of snow next week? Hope there is after last nights rubbish.

 

It's far too soon to look ahead past friday Jay. Everything is so sketchy. 

 

If you read the netweather guides you should be able to answer your own questions that's how I learnt!!!

 

Gusts going to 45-55mph here!! 

[Snowmadsam]

I wouldn't agree with that analysis in complete and what he did say was anywhere south of the m4 when it comes to frontal snow. But then there's strong model agreement on a cold week ahead and GFS and UKMO have many snow opportunities chucked in (as always with snow its far to early to forecast) but it looks like most places (As it currently stands) should see snow through tuesday/wednesday next week, this will definetly change but the trend is colder and its not boring cold either. As always with frontal systems from the west and lows it all depends on their source, how much mild air is mixed in and how far they track.

But if you took the models as gospel they are ready snowfest at the moment and I would say unless you lived on Skomer you are very likely to see snow next week(but then I would defy what I've just said in that, its far to early to say).

 

Meanwhile how about some wintry potential in the next 48hrs and over the weekend, methinks we will see some falling snow tomorrow again but very little settling.

 

Snow is always a surprise event! Mr.Murr does have experience yes, but the dividing line between rain and snow is always problematic! One of the reasons why this is difficult is because of the warm sea to the west (Irish sea) but when things are the correct side of marginal, snow can become even heavier than forecast due to the Irish sea acting as a convergence zone. Upper air temperatures are not everything when it comes to snow, they are extremely useful for snow, but as what happened here yesterday evaporative cooling can turn rain to snow quickly! The way I use to describe evaporative cooling is like whipping cream. It changes all of a sudden.  

[bradymk]

Plenty of snow chances next week even if Wednesday's slider low doesn't end up in a favourable place. Friday January 18th 2013 was when we had widespread snowfall from a slider low in Wales. If you want to know what to look for in the charts for this low to be more favourable then you want the low pressure to be more elongated and further south and west, rather than an oval shape. 

 

This was from ECM yesterday

 

You can see the oval shape to the low here, no snow likely for most of Wales

 

This is the 18th January 2013

 

You can see then the low to the west is more negatively tilted, the isobars face SE-NW, rather than NE-SW like they usually would on a low pressure coming in from the atlantic. This means that we get a south easterly continental flow instead of south westerly flow, which means much colder air and on this case gave a dumping to many. There was a red warning in the valleys if you can remember.

 

This low aside that Steve mentioned in the model thread, what happens after that looks likely to bring snow chances to all anyway, so we will just have to wait and see. The low for next week tues/wed already better on the 18z GFS with a wedge of heights to the north. hopefully more improvements to come than downgrades.

Edited January 14, 2015 by bradythemole

[J10]

Not quite at the moment according to Mr Steve Murr's current analysis....we are just a tad too South as usual. Things can change but at the moment it is looking a midland North event. So mid Wales up may be fine...here's hoping for a correction of the cold to filter South. Would be good if an experienced poster could put a chart in showing what to look out for and for this to happen. Any takers on this guys and girls??

 

With 850hpa of sub -5c for much of next week, there is a much better chance than with 850HPA of +5c. Detail will change every run until then anyway.

 

and some wintry showers at least before that anyway.

 

By the way the GFS parallel has become operational and replaced the old version.

 

A wild one out there tonight winds still gusting to around 60mph, but averaging over 40mph.

Edited January 14, 2015 by J10

[Blackjack]

Miserly 20mph here

10.9mm of rain today

[Marcus_surfer]

Occasional 60mph gusts , rain not too heavy, no squall line as bbc graphics forecast

[Cymro]

Rain is very heavy here and includes icy pellets, melted hail splating on the windscreen not a fun night to be out, seems to be easing off a little now however. Winds gusting at around 62mph.

[TonyH]

High gust so far a record 61mph (its only been recording less than 2 years though)

Squall line approaching from Pembs:

Edited January 14, 2015 by TonyH

[TonyH]

93mph gust Capel Curig and 81mph Mumbles

[Cymro]

The usuals then regarding windiest spots, still find it stupid how the met warning didn't include parts of the Gower. Looking at precip in Ireland behind this band, its turning incredibly wintry/sleety. Think we should see a few hefty wintry showers tomorrow. Everyone is fixated on next week's prospects but forget we've a weekend of W/NW winds and wintry showers to get by, and especially in South West Wales, these type of conditions can prove rather fruitful for snow if the conditions are right.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Cymro

[Cymro]

Brecon Beacons Mountain Forecast with the met also interesting for the next few days:

 

Tomorrow:

A very windy day with gale and severe gale force winds throughout. Heavy and persistent rain will quickly clear eastwards by dawn, then it will be a mainly cloudy day with scattered sleet and snow showers. The showers will be heavy at times and will also have an associated risk of hail and thunder. The combination of snow and wind will result in a significant wind chill, feeling like -15 Celsius at times. Cloud will shroud the heighest peaks and regularly be as low as 600m, and 400m at times. Conditions are very dangerous for walkers.

 

Friday:

A windy day, but not as severe as Thursday. It will be a day of wintry showers with some sunny spells. The showers will be a mix of rain, sleet and snow, heavy at times with a risk of hail and thunder too. The strong winds and showers will produce a significant wind chill, feeling like -15 Celsius at times. There will be variable cloud bases, but they will be as low as 600m in heavy showers.

 

Saturday:

A breezy day with some strong gusts at first. There will be a mix of wintry showers and some sunny spells. Showers readily falling as snow over the higher peaks adding to previous snow amounts. Cold with a wind chill, making it feel like -12 Celsius.

 

Sunday:

Remaing windy with some strong gusts, the wind becoming northwesterly early in the day. Another day of wintery showers and some sunny spells, with further snow to most places, even at low levels.

 

Monday:

A very similar day to Sunday, but with winds rasing a little. Remaining very cold with a significant wind chill and further snow fall to all levels.

 

Yet we are all concentrating on next week? I think most in Wales away from the coast will see more snow within the next 24hr let alone a few days!

[TonyH]

Quite an exciting squall line just passed through, no higher gusts than earlier and the obligatory 10 minutes torrential rain.

Temp peaked at 9.9c quite a contrast to the snowy -2.7c this morning!

Almost one inch of rain from the event.

[PEMBS PIRATE]

squall line was a bit wild to say the least......http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Cymro]

squall line was a bit wild to say the least......http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

 

That squall line is about hitting me now, very windy and torrential rain, nothing spectacular though have seen worse.

[swales]

I have a SW facing bedroom window, horrendous but squall line has just passed so hopefully I'll be able to get some sleep.

Edited January 15, 2015 by swales

[Jackfrost]

I have a SW facing bedroom window

 

Snap. Facing towards and being only a short distance from the edge of a major ocean makes getting a good sleep on stormy nights almost impossible.

 

Still, the combination of rain splattering against the window and a howling wind combined with low lighting makes for a pretty atmospheric room!