Wales - Weather Chat

[Cymro]

I think quite a few of us will see some snow/sleet falling over the next few days, whether it settles is another matter. Meanwhile back to this evening and overnight, perfect conditions to bring some snow to North and West Wales for a time before getting milder tomorrow. Don't expect much but anywhere above say 150m will see some snow IMO.

[TonyH]

Amazing we are thinking of chances of wintry showers today after it being so unseasonably mild last night!

Looking at the charts several Pm episodes with wintry showers in the coming week, to me next Friday and Saturday holds the best prospects for more general wintry showers and even a longer spell of sleet or snow:

Edited January 10, 2015 by TonyH

[Cymro]

Amazing we are thinking of chances of wintry showers today after it being so unseasonably mild last night!

Looking at the charts several Pm episodes with wintry showers in the coming week, to me next Friday and Saturday holds the best prospects for more general wintry showers and even a longer spell of sleet or snow:

ecmt850.168.pngviewimage.png

 

 

Yes that's an ideal pembrokeshire dangler setup! It will be an interesting week weather wise, up's and downs, hits and misses - If anyone is living on a mountain somwhere above 400m this week and likes the white stuff, I would be quite happy!

 

But for most of us it will be a case of how intense the weather systems are/how much modification they entail and being on the right side of marginal apart from towards the end of the week, which is too far away yet to build on any hopes! 

[keithlucky]

Still looking good from Thursday onwards with -8 uppers GAME ON! Thursday Friday, Saturday looks colder still

Edited January 10, 2015 by keithlucky

[TonyH]

More like -6 or -7c actually Keith, the right side of marginal nonetheless in mid January

Edited January 10, 2015 by TonyH

[keithlucky]

More like -6 or -7c actually Keith, the right side of marginal nonetheless in mid January

viewimage (1).png

LOL T whats a few c amongst friends! as long as we are the right side of the marginal.

[Cymro]

Well that is the chart from Cardiff could very well be -7 -8 in good old Abertawe

 

But just look at that mean, -5 or close by throughout, great prospects ahead.

[J10]

IF you look at the 850Hpa profile, it was +10c yesterday evening, falling to -7c during today, a fall of 17c in approx. 18 hours.

 

This type of temperature contrast has been fairly widespread with alternating air masses in recent days.

 

****  Warning the following contains a ramp (for next weekend) ****

 

Note charts are taken from the GFS (Parallel) 06Hz run which are colder than the corresponding GFS 06Hz, which is more accurate, who knows.

 

NW to NNW wind uppers sub -8c, thicknesses sub 516 dam and 1290m

 

Next Saturday

 

 

Next Sunday

 

 

IF this verifies, this is closer to good wintry events of past.

 

Of course it is 7 days away and may well be downgraded closer to the event.

 

There remains wintry potential before this but not to this extent.

Edited January 10, 2015 by J10

[J10]

Had a quick looksy at Met office website tonight and.

 

 

 

For Wednesday morning 3am

 

 

[CRACKPOT]

Well things must have changed overnight looking at the latest TV forecasts this morning. Tuesday the low comes in from a SW - NE trajectory - we would be expecting it to come in at a more shallow angle. This brings milder air right across all but Northern areas - so no snow on those charts - and also what was shown during the week.

 

I hope they are in the wrong but they are operating on the latest data. No snow for majority of Wales on anything this morning.

 

I know time to go, but this winter is now beginning to disappoint, I have not seen a flake yet!!

 

JK

[Cymro]

Well things must have changed overnight looking at the latest TV forecasts this morning. Tuesday the low comes in from a SW - NE trajectory - we would be expecting it to come in at a more shallow angle. This brings milder air right across all but Northern areas - so no snow on those charts - and also what was shown during the week.

 

I hope they are in the wrong but they are operating on the latest data. No snow for majority of Wales on anything this morning.

 

I know time to go, but this winter is now beginning to disappoint, I have not seen a flake yet!!

 

JK

Oh come on!

 

One forecast and the winter is a disappointment? This winter has already out performed the last just in terms of frost! Things will be alright on the night!

[CRACKPOT]

Oh come on!

 

One forecast and the winter is a disappointment? This winter has already out performed the last just in terms of frost! Things will be alright on the night!

 

What - frost! Seriously - you consider it good because we have had a few frosts? Crikey, you have low expectations.

 

Where did I say one forecast? It is the current forecast and where it comes into the reliable time frame - so what was 'predicted' and looked good is not going to come to fruition.

 

The trajectory of the fronts is different to those of a couple of days ago so don't give me one forecast and I have given up. This 'one' forecast is showing the next few days after this front goes through as not being as cold. That will be a fact. 7°C & 8°C are not cold - they are just above the January average.

 

JK

Edited January 11, 2015 by CRACKPOT

[keithlucky]

Nice outlook for a wintry  end of the week http://t.co/n7fVOyPwAm

Edited January 11, 2015 by keithlucky

[J10]

The Current forecast from the Met Office still goes for snow in pars of South Wales Tuesday into Wednesday. taken from their website just now.

 

 

 

[keithlucky]

The Current forecast from the Met Office still goes for snow in pars of South Wales Tuesday into Wednesday. taken from their website just now.

 

Capture 4.JPG

Nice for once western UK is favored region in this type of set up interesting week ahead,with snow possible ,with settled snow more likely overnight especially towards the end of the week.

[J10]

What - frost! Seriously - you consider it good because we have had a few frosts? Crikey, you have low expectations.

 

Where did I say one forecast? It is the current forecast and where it comes into the reliable time frame - so what was 'predicted' and looked good is not going to come to fruition.

 

The trajectory of the fronts is different to those of a couple of days ago so don't give me one forecast and I have given up. This 'one' forecast is showing the next few days after this front goes through as not being as cold. That will be a fact. 7°C & 8°C are not cold - they are just above the January average.

 

JK

 

To be honest I don't think you are being that friendly. He gave his opinion and you could have been a bit politer.

You are entitled to be as negative as you like about the weather, but keep it friendly please.

 

Some people take what that get, after all we cannot change the weather, so far here we have had a few days of sleet and snow but we had winter without any snow at all and others far better.

 

Will the Met Office forecast be correct I don't know, but this if the first time I can remember this year snow being forecast on these maps all winter.

Nice for once western UK is favored region in this type of set up interesting week ahead,with snow possible ,with settled snow more likely overnight especially towards the end of the week.

 

Part of the fun is looking for the opportunity for snow, My expectations are quite low generally, so any snow is a bonus.

Edited January 11, 2015 by J10

[dbaloo]

let's not end up like the model thread in here. All the signs are there for some snow potential this week at some point, but there's bigger and worst things happening in the world than if it doesn't snow.

 

on a plus note its nice to see the wales thread a bit busier these last few days!

[J10]

let's not end up like the model thread in here. All the signs are there for some snow potential this week at some point, but there's bigger and worst things happening in the world than if it doesn't snow.

 

on a plus note its nice to see the wales thread a bit busier these last few days!

 

Totally agree.

 

I have been trying to keep the conversation moving along, and be realistic, a tough balancing act !!!!!

Edited January 11, 2015 by J10

[Ukwoody]

Two Ukmo warnings for wales just issued, whats interesting is that on the rain one, they go on to talk about cold clearer weather coming in afterwards. So it  seems they at least expect a period of cold even if no snow (though hopefully there will be of course,lol)

[dbaloo]

what's more concerning is that a yellow has been issued but there is a chance that that could increase to an amber warning in a few days time.going to be some close model watching over the next few days

[TonyH]

Here is my detailed take on the week ahead:

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4864-weather-guide-monday-12th-to-sunday-18th-january-2015/

[J10]

Two Ukmo warnings for wales just issued, whats interesting is that on the rain one, they go on to talk about cold clearer weather coming in afterwards. So it  seems they at least expect a period of cold even if no snow (though hopefully there will be of course,lol)

 

Yep some cold, some wintriness, some snow, some gales and some rain, probably not in that order. [alas]

 

By the way I find it strange that Bobby hasn't posted in here in months, has anyone heard from him.

[TonyH]

No not heard from him either

[CRACKPOT]

Thanks for the input guys, apparently my post earlier someone took offence at my attitude.

 

Wish you all good luck but after 11 years on this site that is the final straw, I won't post up any more - even though only in here was the only place I posted.

 

Good luck all,

JK

Thanks for the input guys, apparently my post earlier someone took offence at my attitude. It certainly was not my intention if somehow it was inappropriate.

 

Wish you all good luck but after 11 years on this site that is the final straw, I won't post up any more - even though only in here was the only place I have posted with any regularity, my fellow Welsh colleagues..

 

Good luck all,

JK

[dbaloo]

I hope I speak for all in this thread when I say that nobody wants anybody to leave or not post anymore.

 

it is frustrating as we have been snow starved down here for 2 years now.

 

we are only a small community compared to other groups on here and I for one hope you reconsider your decision crackpot