Wales - Weather Chat

[DeepSnow]

Had a nice frost this morning with temps down to 0.1C, up to 5.5C now and just had some heavy rain.

[Clair_Witch]

Just seen this on the MOD thread.

 

It will snow in Wales, then it won't and then it will again. My nerves can't take it. Lol.

[EastAnglian]

Not lived in Wales for very long and it does not look as if we will see any snow in North Wales from the sliders this weekend that seems to be further south. But I was wondering next week with ENE to NE winds that will drive convective showers westwards from the North sea and I would not expect them to reach North Wales but does anybody know if the mountains cause the spent showers to rise and reinvigorate over the hills and mountains of North Wales? 

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, EastAnglian said:

Not lived in Wales for very long and it does not look as if we will see any snow in North Wales from the sliders this weekend that seems to be further south. But I was wondering next week with ENE to NE winds that will drive convective showers westwards from the North sea and I would not expect them to reach North Wales but does anybody know if the mountains cause the spent showers to rise and reinvigorate over the hills and mountains of North Wales? 

Yes it can happen - mountains have strange effects on in coming fronts - they either drain all the energy out of fronts or showers - or pep the front/shower up. All depends on the individual set up - high and low placement etc.

[dragonfalls]

So the snow on the weekend is off I presume now any one no . then we got possible cold next week 

[freeze for all]

I'd say snow to high ground cold rain to low levels and as for the cold spell next week I'd say the same as wot we've experienced already this winter and nothing more

[foggybrynna]

Bridgend radio weather said snow all-day sun don't know if it will happen 

[dragonfalls]

Thanks just gone off model watching now changes so much lol feels like spring in the sun quite nice going cloudly now showers not far away .

[A Frayed Knot]

So whats going to happen then ' will it or won't it ' that is the question ?

[A Frayed Knot]

Just seen this post from our Derek , So we have got rain once again ' we shall see though .

[valley blue_501]

I think In all fairness snow for low level areas was never forecast.  I think we will struggle to see much up the valleys at 350M.

As for next week it's a pretty bold statement from the beeb who never stick their neck out.... but we dont know what we will get sat yet never mind next Thurs 

[andymusic]

latest output - saturday but mostly sunday could spring some snowy surprises

latest euro4 - some backedge snow for saturday

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/02/11/basis12/ukuk/prty/16021312_1112.gif

 

and then wednesday and thursday next week could well produce quite a bit also - we'll be well into some cold air then

[Jayfromcardiff]

The closest thing to snow I'll see all winter is the ice I scraped off my car this morning!

[CRACKPOT]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

The closest thing to snow I'll see all winter is the ice I scraped off my car this morning!

I agree Jay, even though it's changing all the time, the milder solutions seem to be coming to the fore all the time. If it stays cold we get dry air.

Really unfair. I know people are saying wait and see and Andy is trying his best to keep up morale but it's wearing even more thin when cold air/snow is being put on our 'radar' and yet again keeps being shoved away/changed.

Great winter - not!

JK

 

[andymusic]

3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

The closest thing to snow I'll see all winter is the ice I scraped off my car this morning!

don't think so - i have a feeling that finally and i mean finally this next 7 days everyone somewhere in Wales will get there chance to see some snow

[worldairgroup]

39 minutes ago, andymusic said:

don't think so - i have a feeling that finally and i mean finally this next 7 days everyone somewhere in Wales will get there chance to see some snow

yes I agree Andy its got to happen now. Reading the Model Output discussions as well its seeming more and more likely. For the Beeb to come out with such a stern statement (albeit according to Fergie its actually for the BBC 9.55pm Weather for week ahead) there must be very high confidence for this to actually happen.

[andymusic]

Bernaz - just said BBC Wales forecast - slip of the tongue - wintry especially for the heads of the "WELLIES" LOL

so just put your wellies on folks lol

[worldairgroup]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

Bernaz - just said BBC Wales forecast - slip of the tongue - wintry especially for the heads of the "WELLIES" LOL

so just put your wellies on folks lol

Benny - oh yes LOL

[freeze for all]

43 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Bernaz - just said BBC Wales forecast - slip of the tongue - wintry especially for the heads of the "WELLIES" LOL

so just put your wellies on folks lol

Loads more rain on the way is there?? Lol

[andymusic]

Fergie

12z EC delivers snow across much of northern/western/central UK by end of Thursday: all of Wales and for England, approx Scarborough down to Bournemouth as eastern boundary; western boundary approx Exmoor to Exeter (plus Dartmoor).  12z UKMO-GM broadly similar ideas (re western bias).  Much water to run under bridge before then, so very low confidence and no individual solution is trustworthy at this point.

Re this weekend, key difference is how 12z EC offers a far less wet day for the south on Saturday (thus also further reducing scope for any snow across e.g. Chilterns, Cotswolds, Downs). UKMO have modified forecast expectations towards this solution (thus also losing yellow wind warning for SW: nonetheless, a few ENS members are still potent). 

 

sunday morning looking like the beginnings of it

potential 12 hours plus snowfall

 

Edited February 11, 2016 by andymusic

[CRACKPOT]

Last night, frosty night - didn;t drop below 3.5 °C - considering it was supposed to be frosty - can't be correct within several hours!

Now Saturday 'mostly' rain, a little back edge snow in south east, Sunday is now a benign day hovering at an average of 6°C.

February rapidly ending,

JK

 

[Clair_Witch]

13 hours ago, andymusic said:

Bernaz - just said BBC Wales forecast - slip of the tongue - wintry especially for the heads of the "WELLIES" LOL

so just put your wellies on folks lol

I had to rewind that twice to listen again. Wasn't sure if she said heads of the wellies or heads of the wallies. Lol

[worldairgroup]

Quite a bit of talk about Wales and West country potential for snow on Sunday on the Model Output discussions.

From Nick F (forecaster)

Quote

Yep, Wales and West Country waking up to a valentine snowfall according 18z GFS, but may change ... -5C T850s digging further south Sunday on last few runs which is good to see.

[CRACKPOT]

Just now, worldairgroup said:

Quite a bit of talk about Wales and West country potential for snow on Sunday on the Model Output discussions.

From Nick F (forecaster)

Quote

Yep, Wales and West Country waking up to a valentine snowfall according 18z GFS, but may change ... -5C T850s digging further south Sunday on last few runs which is good to see.

I don't think that is on the cards (excuse the pun ) any longer.....

JK

[CRACKPOT]

A tweet from Derek:

@DerekTheWeather 2 minutes ago

Reduced rainfall in S #Wales tomorrow. 10mm or less. Some sleet/snow on ground ~200m 650ft and higher but not much.

JK