Wales - Weather Chat

[andymusic]

the ice man cometh - and we shall have ice balls lol

 

all eyes on wednesday night or before

Edited January 10, 2016 by andymusic

[Jackfrost]

I'm not one to get carried away but seeing how volatile the charts are and how unstable the flow is likely to be, I feel that a surprise or two is inevitable for us this week (unless things go very badly wrong and the cold spell evaporates before our eyes, which isn't going to happen at this late a stage).

[Marcus_surfer]

Less showers here today but the showers that have fallen have been a mixture of rain and hail. Midweek still looking interesting 

[dragonfalls]

What's going on at main forum things being pushed back east to affraid to ask 

[dbaloo]

Would not want to be a weather forecaster this week! It's still chaos with the models from what I can make out. GFS still wAnts to bring the Atlantic through,other models still saying cold.await the ECM with interest......this has to be resolved sooner or later for all our sanity!

Edited January 10, 2016 by dbaloo

[ourson]

Much excitement in the model thread once again. Pub run shows some potentially longer term cold (ie further than the end of the coming week). Probably back to normal by tomorrow morning with renewed gnashing of teeth and model-related stress.

Personally, I'm looking forward to some crisper mornings but more so some dry days!!

[andymusic]

it's gonna get bloody cold - THAT'S ALL

[Jayfromcardiff]

6 minutes ago, andymusic said:

it's gonna get bloody cold - THAT'S ALL

Just pre-ordered my bulldozer lol - the snow better arrive now! sledge at the ready.

[bradymk]

Still skeptical of any notable snow in low areas in Wales end of the week. Chances are good though mid and north Wales and the higher up you are but I think the main populated areas on the south coast (Swansea Cardiff) may struggle to see any at the moment...we'll see

[Jayfromcardiff]

15 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Still skeptical of any notable snow in low areas in Wales end of the week. Chances are good though mid and north Wales and the higher up you are but I think the main populated areas on the south coast (Swansea Cardiff) may struggle to see any at the moment...we'll see

I don't think Cardiff will see any either, probably 30% chance at the moment lol. Everything has to fall right here to see snow.

[worldairgroup]

1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Just pre-ordered my bulldozer lol - the snow better arrive now! sledge at the ready.

I just ordered a bigger one jay LOL

[Jackfrost]

8 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

I'm not one to get carried away but seeing how volatile the charts are and how unstable the flow is likely to be, I feel that a surprise or two is inevitable for us this week (unless things go very badly wrong and the cold spell evaporates before our eyes, which isn't going to happen at this late a stage).

 

Well, I didn't expect that surprise to occur tonight! One of the BBC One forecasts a few hours ago specifically mentioned wet snow across Southeast Wales and the Southwest Midlands tonight, and Ian Fergusson mentioned the same possibility in the SW England thread.

Appears to be some kind of wintriness in the rain that's falling here right now.

[Stevetynant]

Radio Wales just reported the rest of the week as "changeable" whatever that means

[freeze for all]

It means they don't know and they have covered every outcome in 1 word 

[andymusic]

let it snow - let it snow - let it snow

 

 

 

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

12 minutes ago, andymusic said:

let it snow - let it snow - let it snow

 

 

 

 

Lol can't trust them mate, I thought we had snow chances on Thursday have these gone now? 

[Marcus_surfer]

It looks way too mild in the day for snow apart from the highest ground of wales.

[gareth moo]

A few ingredients will be present on Wednesday into Thursday (-5/6 uppers and low dew points across Wales) although the PPN from the West is likely to raise these dewpoints and uppers as it arrives. How much so remains to be seen although we won't be under any entrenched cold at this point.

Getting in range for the Euro4 now and look at the difference between the dewpoints in Ireland under that PPN compared to inland Wales for example.  Looks the wrong side of marginal as always although elevated positions should see some snow. The lack of any deep or recent ground frosts also goes against us here.  The next couple of runs should give us more precision in locating snow potential. Hopefully I'm wrong. I'm looking forward to HP and some sunny skies nonetheless.

 

 

[andymusic]

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-01-11/winter-is-finally-here/

[PeteB]

Had to defrost my car at midday today and it was only 2 degrees at 2 o'clock. Need to put my winter quilt on I think.

 

Pete 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Anyone know whether we still have a chance of snow for the end of the week? I find it bizarre days ago the charts were showing a decent cold spell and now its been downgraded.

[andymusic]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 11m11 minutes ago

Joe Bastardi Retweeted Watts Up With That

TURNNG MUCH COLDER, BUT ITS A 5-10 COLD SNAP, NOT LOCKING IN

[bradymk]

Encouraging

[keithlucky]

Yes Thursday seem quite promising for snow reaching low levels Then a sliding LP Friday just reaching Wales

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

2 hours ago, gareth moo said:

A few ingredients will be present on Wednesday into Thursday (-5/6 uppers and low dew points across Wales) although the PPN from the West is likely to raise these dewpoints and uppers as it arrives. How much so remains to be seen although we won't be under any entrenched cold at this point.

Indeed, thats my current thoughts also. Here are some of my amateur thoughts currently. 

Netwx model (12Z data) shows incoming precipitation on Wednesday afternoon with rising temps, NE Wales see the lower temperatures.

EURO 4 (12Data) Showing Precipitation & Dew points:

Again as precipitation moves in Dew points also rising, likely due to the switch in flow from NW to a More West then South West:

I think its worth pointing out the GFS also does this but then colder air filters in from the NW again later Wednesday evening into Thursday which makes things tricky as there is potential for a rain to snow event but not everywhere of course. GFS 12z Wednesday night into Thursday:

However its still a long way out and not in full range of high resolution models yet so changes highly likely, but it does make for interesting model watching as always!

Cheers,

Jamie