Wales - Weather Chat

[chopper66]

Tesco in Fforestfach, Swansea was hit by a tornado at roughly 10pm this evening. Part of their sign was ripped down, vans overturned and a trolley shelter was taken out.

[gareth moo]

All kisses and compliments this morning in the model thread as there is as chance of an Easterly in about 10 days time!!!!

Back to reality:  Should be a cold week with the best chance of snow arriving on Thursday from the South. South Wales may well be the wrong side of marginal with the inland North looking to have the better chances. However, the position, track and time of arrival of the LP will be crucial as always. Probably won't be any clarity on this event until T-48 at least but if we're going to follow the output, we'll need the LP to track further South, centred over Northern France and arriving after dark.

[DeepSnow]

I hope I am wrong and it may just be due to the lack of good winters of recent years but I having followed the model thread I can't help but feel us in the south west of the UK will miss out on most of whatever this cold spell delivers! It will be nice to see some more seasonal temperatures though! Just hope that if we don't get any snow then it stays dry for a while!

[Cwmbran Eira]

2 hours ago, DeepSnow said:

I hope I am wrong and it may just be due to the lack of good winters of recent years but I having followed the model thread I can't help but feel us in the south west of the UK will miss out on most of whatever this cold spell delivers! It will be nice to see some more seasonal temperatures though! Just hope that if we don't get any snow then it stays dry for a while!

I know what you mean. After the last 2 winters I start thinking I'll never see snow again. Wales though is quite unique in its position and some of the best snow events aren't forecast at all. We do tend to get ignored a bit in the model thread as people are naturally interested in their own areas.

I also agree with the dry comment. Love a bit of snow but I'll take anything but rain at the moment.

[Jackfrost]

3 hours ago, Cwmbran Eira said:

Wales though is quite unique in its position

 

Correct. Wales is in a far more favourable position for snow than all of England south of, say, Manchester.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Jackfrost

[dbaloo]

so is the cold coming or not?..going to be a rollercoaster of a week me thinks!

[Marcus_surfer]

Only time and mother nature will tell!

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, dbaloo said:

so is the cold coming or not?..going to be a rollercoaster of a week me thinks!

Same old story models unable to cope with a weather u-turn -7 uppers Tuesday with sleet /snow showers , interesting cooling down phase taking place with the outlook pretty cold all the way to March according to most long term forecasts https://t.co/jGOrDrC5wx

Edited January 9, 2016 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

13 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Same old story models unable to cope with a weather u-turn -7 uppers Tuesday with sleet /snow showers , interesting cooling down phase taking place with the outlook pretty cold all the way to March according to most long term forecasts https://t.co/jGOrDrC5wx

Thursday a front pushes in from the S west snow turning back to rain maybe? lol confusion in the model thread

[dbaloo]

14 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Thursday a front pushes in from the S west snow turning back to rain maybe? lol confusion in the model thread

its been chaos in the model thread last few days.been really difficult to follow what is going on or what's going to happen!

[dbaloo]

this would do nicely......

[Jayfromcardiff]

What annoys me is the fact that everything keeps being pushed further back in regards to snow potential and we're still none the wiser as to what locations will have the best chance. I just hope that it's not marginal when any PPN arrives next week!

[Marcus_surfer]

Most confusing winter charts I've ever seen! Very hard to make out whats gonna happen.

[Marcus_surfer]

1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

What annoys me is the fact that everything keeps being pushed further back in regards to snow potential and we're still none the wiser as to what locations will have the best chance. I just hope that it's not marginal when any PPN arrives next week!

Pretty much guaranteed it will be marginal especially in southern parts

[A Frayed Knot]

Wales so far on the latest charts and setups are the prime winners for Snow , As for other parts of the country ' they are in for a good measure at times but we are in for the Best ever Snow events ..

[Blackjack]

Snowing on top of the Blorenge Aberagvenny. Right now

[andymusic]

cwwwww

36 minutes ago, Blackjack said:

Snowing on top of the Blorenge Aberagvenny. Right now

Went to Hereford last night and on the way home it was sleet and snow from just outside Abergavenny all across the heads of the valleys and down to Pontypridd - saw two nasty car accidents too - the conditions were horrendous with the heavyness of the wind etc - one car spun round near tredegar on the other side of the dual carriage way - and near the Abercynon roundabout there was a pile up of about 4 cars with a lampost hanging over the road there too on the A470 - must have only just happened too as police hadn't got there yet - a right mess - we had to slow down considerably as the weather was attrocious - but some don't and just think they can continue driving as normal!

[Jayfromcardiff]

24 minutes ago, andymusic said:

cwwwww

Went to Hereford last night and on the way home it was sleet and snow from just outside Abergavenny all across the heads of the valleys and down to Pontypridd - saw two nasty car accidents too - the conditions were horrendous with the heavyness of the wind etc - one car spun round near tredegar on the other side of the dual carriage way - and near the Abercynon roundabout there was a pile up of about 4 cars with a lampost hanging over the road there too on the A470 - must have only just happened too as police hadn't got there yet - a right mess - we had to slow down considerably as the weather was attrocious - but some don't and just think they can continue driving as normal!

As expected looks like a 200m+ snow event looking at the charts. If you live on the south coast then you can forget it. 

[lfcdude]

Derek Brockway ‏@DerekTheWeather  38s39 seconds ago
@johnpockos snow in places even to low levels in south but doesn't look to be widespread at the moment.

[Lisa34]

I'm in Aberdare, my app is saying snow for today but it's raining outside lol. The sky is white. I'm sick of all this rain now.

Edited January 10, 2016 by Lisa34

[freeze for all]

Just had 2 hefty showers of hail here 

[valley blue_501]

Mix of rain sleet and snow in Blaenavon this morning. A slight covering on the Coity mountain.

[DeepSnow]

Had a lot of heavy hail and icy rain here today, had a covering of hail for well over an hour at one point and got very icy with temps of 5-6c in the showers and currently 8.1c. Least it feels a bit more like winter out there!

[J10]

4 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

As expected looks like a 200m+ snow event looking at the charts. If you live on the south coast then you can forget it. 

To be honest I wouldn't look too closely at those types of charts this far out. Things will change a lot before next Thursday, maybe for the better or maybe for the worse.

There is also the added issue of GFS overstating temps around coasts, so rarely will it show snow on the coast, and this has happened in the past when we have had snow events. Of course this is also based on the GFS which has not been the most promising for this cold spell.

As per the Met Office

Monday:
Rather cold with a mix of sunshine and scattered heavy showers. The showers falling as sleet or snow on higher ground. Maximum Temperature 7°C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:
Turning colder with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers. The showers falling as sleet, snow or hail at times. Widespread frosts morning and night.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

However after recent disappointments I can understand the general pessimism on this spell.

[dragonfalls]

Gone quiet on the main forum to affraid to look sometimes colder here today ..