Wales - Weather Chat

[marclt]

On 11/30/2015 at 10:26 AM, andymusic said:

14th DECEMBER 00z and 06z - both confirming again today - blizzards and winter will kick off that day or around that day - yer we go folks

Guess, we'll have to wait a little bit longer... 

 

[virtualsphere]

On 12/11/2015 at 9:59 PM, virtualsphere said:

Make the most of any colder weather now, as it's due to get mild again shortly and unfortunately looks very wet in the medium term:

For those looking for something colder there's still scope for the models to change before Christmas, but not looking too promising at this stage.

Possibly some good news - compared to the chart I posted above, it now looks like it might get a bit drier in the medium term between Christmas and New Year.  Not much colder though - more a gradual climbdown from exceptional warmth to slightly above average.

[Sky Full]

Well, looks like we can expect three to five days of pretty much non stop, at times heavy, rain with strong winds as an accompaniment.   Not Christmas shopping weather then.  I dont relish the thought of tramping around Carmarthen in the rain but at least the car parking is under cover!   We could certainly do with a few dry days to dry  us out after Christmas but the trend is not hopeful......

[dbaloo]

there's a couple of more positive posts in the mod thread today.hopefully it is the start of something interesting brewing. I am really hoping we get some reward for the miserable mild and wet conditions we have endured the last few weeks and hopefully something to cheer about come the new year

[in the vale]

Hit 16.1 C here today - winter madness! Warmest Dec temp since I started with my first weather station in 2008.

[in the vale]

This day in 2010 I saw a max of -2.4, average of -7.3. Lovely.

Edited December 19, 2015 by in the vale

[Sky Full]

That new stream past my front door is back with a vengeance today and looks like becoming a permanent feature.  Perhaps I should try to name it.....   Any suggestions? 

On on second thoughts, perhaps I should improve the drainage in the lane before Noah turns up....

[andymusic]

ok folks - winter is looking like a bust i'm afraid and what with the met office thinking that 2016 will be the hottest year ever if we see any of the white stuff here in wales - i would be very surprised - amazing the way the set up will just not update and change - we are stuck once again in a set up that is just not conducive to snow but we did have that set up annoyingly just before winter started

[andymusic]

On 14/12/2015 at 4:55 PM, marclt said:

Guess, we'll have to wait a little bit longer... 

 

sorry the weather models made a complete fool even out of me - and it's not looking too good for the rest of winter either - it'll take a massive change in jet stream set up and general set up for this to take a u turn now

[A_T]

Very early yet in the winter. Could change completely in a couple of weeks.

[Ukwoody]

I flipping hope so A_T.  I am getting really fed up with the mild damp or very wet conditions, with winds touching gale force - but even they haven't bought any excitement this year 

[Sky Full]

"sorry the weather models made a complete fool even out of me - and it's not looking too good for the rest of winter either - it'll take a massive change in jet stream set up and general set up for this to take a u turn now"

Never mind Andy  - Just goes to prove that none of the models can be relied upon much beyond six days out .  10 to 14 days ahead they really have no idea at all - any model which occasionally proves reasonably accurate at that time distance is pure chance and it happens very rarely anyway.   In my opinion, any weather the models predict beyond 8 days should be ignored - you're better off reading tea leaves - but the models are worth consulting for a three to five day forecast or maybe for general trends.  How can we place any faith in computer programs which swing wildly from one extreme to the other even in a 24 Hour period?   Just wait and see - as soon as the North Sea cools down to its minimum winter temperature after mid January, the conditions will be right for colder weather in the UK and snow to fall more widely.  The changes in the atmosphere needed for widespread snow have occurred in very short time frames in the past and will do so again in the future.  Not that I am making predictions, mind....

[in the vale]

My December average hit 10.0 today - how rubbish is that?

[Liam Ellis]

Wow - thunder and lightning here in North West Wales - where did that come from?! 

[whiskers]

Thunder and lightning here through the night too! It was soo loud,scary really,well,obviously going to be a wet xmas day......... Maybe next year?!

[J10]

I would like to wish all my friends on this thread a very Merry Christmas and a Happy new year.

Nadolig Llawen and Blwyddyn Newydd Dda i ti pawb.

[andymusic]

12z gfs looking good for cold and snowiness come 1st/2nd jan 2016 now

[whiskers]

Merry xmas snow lovers,maybe next week?! Remember it's presence not presents that counts, enjoy x

[PeteB]

Raining hard here this morning, the lane I live in has a lot of standing water in it and my septic tank is almost full to the top.

 

Pete

[welshgritter]

Well well well..... This is a mild winter.  Not looking at all cold. Nice to have Christmas with the kids and rest and not out in it but be nice to get something done in January/February/March. How do these months look on the models? 

[Summer Sun]

Amber rain warning issued for Denbighshire, Conwy, Gwynedd

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1451088000®ionName=wl

[marksiwnc]

All roads closed in nw Wales. Very severe weather.  There is no linking Road from Gwynedd Anglesey and Llandudno.  

[marksiwnc]

[SP1986]

One of the last places I'd expect to flood like that would be Llanfairfechan area.. how unusual!

Edited December 26, 2015 by SP1986

[Jackfrost]

It shouldn't be taken literally because the charts at this range tend to show general patterns rather than the precise setup, but make no mistake: this is an excellent chart for Wales.

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by Jackfrost