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Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, thunder and lightning.
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl

Derek's back on the weather tonight. He is so going to dampen my optimism. Lol

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

I agree. Personally, I think there'll be showers crossing Ireland and then pepping up over the Irish Sea before reaching us, but it I've been wrong before!!

 

 

Yes- it reminds me of then. I seem to remember GFS had the initial front arriving from the NW nailed to the minute! Yes- it may have been more unstable- I seem to remember streamers setting up all over the place in the 24hrs following that. 

BBC seems to agree with a snowy Thursday Seems to be upgrading all the time Weather warning in the morning.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Cold with wintry showers, more frequent Thursday than Friday, with more in the way of sunny spells developing, especially across the east. Strong winds will accentuate the cold feel throughout.

Edited by keithlucky
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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly

Derek's back on the weather tonight. He is so going to dampen my optimism. Lol

I guarantee it'll show snow over Cardiff and he'll say not to worry it'll be sleet or hail as per usual followed by snow mainly on the Brecon beacons.

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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

If you're in West Wales (wish i was), sunday looks almost the perfect dangler setup, probably one of the best places to see snow on the weekend is the usual snowless pembrokeshire.

 

For sure- the Preseli MOUNTAINS (top station 536m asl!!!) could well be the place to be come Sunday afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

In your opinions guys which is the best radar to look at? If you could send some links it would be appreciated, thanks and good luck all. Let it snow!! LOL

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=   this and then click weather type on.

 

 

 

I agree. Personally, I think there'll be showers crossing Ireland and then pepping up over the Irish Sea before reaching us, but it I've been wrong before!!

 

 

Yes- it reminds me of then. I seem to remember GFS had the initial front arriving from the NW nailed to the minute! Yes- it may have been more unstable- I seem to remember streamers setting up all over the place in the 24hrs following that. 

 

post-16336-0-65563200-1422384751_thumb.p   post-16336-0-27576600-1422384752_thumb.p

The chart and uppers for that day

 

 

 

post-16336-0-09470700-1422384818_thumb.p    post-16336-0-52104900-1422384818_thumb.p

The chart and uppers for Thursday, warmer uppers, more stable too.

Edited by bradythemole
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Posted
  • Location: A470, Upper Boat, Pontypridd
  • Location: A470, Upper Boat, Pontypridd

I've paid for the netweather radar -£3.49 for a month it's really good. You can zoom right into your postcode. Other than that you could try rain today, that's one I used a while ago. On another note lets see what Derek has to say regarding tomorrow night's snow.

 

thanks. we pay METO for their radar for aviation purposes, but because its a 1 user licence I cant login from home as need to leave it for the ops guys to have direct access to 24/7. but yes will have a look at the ones you have suggested.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, thunder and lightning.
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl

Plenty of snow showers showing for Wales and the cold continuing. That'll do me for now.

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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly

Omg Derek says rain. I give up :wallbash:

Don't worry as in 2010 he said it'll be mostly dry in the south east of Wales and I awoke to a few inches of snow and this continued for the following 6 hours. I can't see it raining in the west tomorrow night surely with cold uppers and all conditions look decent.

Edited by Jayfromcardiff
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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=   this and then click weather type on.

 

 

 

 

attachicon.gifarchives-2010-12-17-12-0.png   attachicon.gifarchives-2010-12-17-12-1.png

The chart and uppers for that day

 

 

 

attachicon.gifgfs-1-48.png    attachicon.gifgfs-0-48.png

The chart and uppers for Thursday, warmer uppers, more stable too.

 

What a stonker 2010 was!

 

Great comparison- thanks for putting that up.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, thunder and lightning.
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl

Derek always plays it down, the fact he even mentioned snow will mean lots for some.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

What a stonker 2010 was!

 

Great comparison- thanks for putting that up.

haha i know. Amazing when you see that chart, the pattern was outstanding. This is completely different to then so anyone expecting anything like 17th December 2010 is going to be upset.

 

BUT the latest ECM run is an absolute great run and even if you dont see snow thursday, you shouldnt have a long wait, prolongs the cold the most and the best run yet going forward.

 

Also for Thursday, coldest air is over Wales midday, but on euro4 there is no precipitation at this time. Uppers are -8c, dew points below freezing, that should be snow if the model is right and anything does fall from the sky. More runs needed, to see what happens with that precipitation in the south west. Less cold Friday, snow unlikely, before the coldest air yet comes back sunday with a straight northerly.

 

PS. the wet bulb level (good for seeing if snow or not), is 300 metres for most of Wales on Thursday, dropping to 200 metres for a time. This is a bit marginal for snow but possible, in comparison, the wet bulb level for Sunday is 0 metres. Snow CAN fall below the wet bulb level if precipitation is heavy enough.

 

Of course i am talking about low levels here, if you're on high ground, you should be good.

Edited by bradythemole
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Posted
  • Location: A470, Upper Boat, Pontypridd
  • Location: A470, Upper Boat, Pontypridd

Don't worry as in 2010 he said it'll be mostly dry in the south east of Wales and I awoke to a few inches of snow and this continued for the following 6 hours. I can't see it raining in the west tomorrow night surely with cold uppers and all conditions look decent.

 

yep i agree derek likes his rain and sun more than snow so take it with a pinch of salt!

Edited by worldairgroup
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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

euro 4 tends to "underplay" the potential - so for me that looks a good bet for a good part of Wales

15012900_2712.gif

 

and the latest ecm run takes us now to the end of next week with the cold with further snowy reloads - even Derek mentioned the cold would be around "well into next week"

Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

For sure- the Preseli MOUNTAINS (top station 536m asl!!!) could well be the place to be come Sunday afternoon.

Well the Preselis have already been snow topped a few times and it has snowed down to less than 200m so it's all looking good!

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

Haven't seen the BBC regional forecast from Derek yet, so don't know if he mentioned the possible cold front moving through during the early hours of Thursday, Ian F mentioned this earlier. Bringing more organisation to showers I believe its shown best on the EURO 4 06z:

 

post-7888-0-08425300-1422386791_thumb.gi

 

The Met Office will likely update the warnings tomorrow to highlight the snow/ice risk across some parts of the region.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: A470, Upper Boat, Pontypridd
  • Location: A470, Upper Boat, Pontypridd

euro 4 tends to "underplay" the potential - so for me that looks a good bet for a good part of Wales

15012900_2712.gif

 

and the latest ecm run takes us now to the end of next week with the cold with further snowy reloads - even Derek mentioned the cold would be around "well into next week"

 

yeah but come on andy we know your excited because its 99 percent certain your going to see the white stuff (and I dont mean in wetherspoons in Pontypridd) LOL

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From the SW thread, the latest points west forecast.

 

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=756146651147147

 

While not expressly for Wales, still of interest, and does shows charts for Wales. 

 

Still looking good for wintry/snow showers, with for me a better chance of wintriness on Thursday morning as opposed to Wednesday night with colder 850Hpa temps and winds swinging round to more of WNW/NW direction opposed to West.

Dewpoints remain below freezing for most of Wales for Wed night /  and even moreseo Thursday.

 

However perhaps the lack of a weather warning for snow accumulation though is telling.

 

Still also keeping an eye on the situation for Saturday into Sunday, a proper NNW. Perhaps tomorrow evening into Thursday is the hors-d'oeuvre before the main course over the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=756146651147147

 

Ian Ferguson's south west BBC forecast. Looks a little better for south Wales into Thursday morning. Fingers crossed- after the past year or two, I'm sure we would take an 'unexceptional' centimeter or two! 

EDIT: J10 beats me to it :p

Edited by RhysWales
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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

From the SW thread, the latest points west forecast.

 

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=756146651147147

 

While not expressly for Wales, still of interest, and does shows charts for Wales. 

 

Still looking good for wintry/snow showers, with for me a better chance of wintriness on Thursday morning as opposed to Wednesday night with colder 850Hpa temps and winds swinging round to more of WNW/NW direction opposed to West.

Dewpoints remain below freezing for most of Wales for Wed night /  and even moreseo Thursday.

 

However perhaps the lack of a weather warning for snow accumulation though is telling.

 

Still also keeping an eye on the situation for Saturday into Sunday, a proper NNW. Perhaps tomorrow evening into Thursday is the hors-d'oeuvre before the main course over the weekend.

Perfect direction that J10 for our irish sea streamer to form for more Fun for Wales.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

I think another positive for any wintry weather is the flow from the North/North West to last for quite some as shown on the ECM Mean:

 

post-7888-0-81351500-1422392083_thumb.gi

 

Details will be fine tuned over the next 24 hours regarding Thursday morning. One thing is noticeable is that the strong NW wind driving these showers well inland NMM 3km shows quite frequent snow showers for Mid & North Wales.

 

 

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