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Paul

By Paul
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CLH the red dragon Rookie

CLH the red dragon

Posted
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales.
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales.
Posted

Meaning?? Its just frustrating that they haven't provided a model as of yet that can determine what's going to fall out of the sky.. I know it's a hard thing to Predict but never the less I hope they one day can do.so... Anyway hopefully it will all be snow for Wales. Who knows

 

I'm pretty sure they're working on it ;) Anyway it IS very hard. Very hard indeed. And, of course, very difficult to predict in relation to every location.

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Ian Price Contributor

Ian Price

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Caernarfon, NW Wales.
  • Location: Nr. Caernarfon, NW Wales.
Posted

NMM 2km for lunchtime tomorrow....

nmm_uk1-1-36-0.png?27-06

 

Not much about as expected,  but hopefully showers will get going into the evening and overnight.

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beatpete Enthusiast

beatpete

Posted
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl
Posted (edited)
 

 

streamer on euro4?

 

Credit: copied from Zephyr on south west thread

Edited by beatpete
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Ian Price Contributor

Ian Price

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Caernarfon, NW Wales.
  • Location: Nr. Caernarfon, NW Wales.
Posted

WRF NNM 0.05° at 7am on Thurday morning when precipitation seems to be at its heaviest, only showing snow inland....

 

nmmuk-1-54-0.png?27-06

 

 

nmmuk-42-54-0.png?27-06

 

dew points around 0°C or above around coasts...

 

nmmuk-18-54-0.png?27-06

 

Quite cold uppers though....

 

nmmuk-16-54-0.png?27-06

 

Good thickness too....

 

nmmuk-21-54-0.png?27-06

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

Looks fairly marginal at this stage for most places . One to watch though

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The Enforcer Rising Star

The Enforcer

Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
Posted

Sorry not my region, but I can't understand why the meto warnings don't include Wales?

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Ian Price Contributor

Ian Price

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Caernarfon, NW Wales.
  • Location: Nr. Caernarfon, NW Wales.
Posted

Sorry not my region, but I can't understand why the meto warnings don't include Wales?

 

Same here. For my location, I think we never seem to do well with Westerly's  even some north-westerlys. The showers always seem do die out as they head over the Irish sea from the Dublin area. Maybe its just me but hope I'm wrong this time though! We always do well with a North to North westerly - steamers form the North channel....

 

But the lack of warning for wales might do due to the fact that it could be marginal (except for east wales though....)

 

Look at this wet bulb chart -the 100m purple only creeps into east Wales. 200m ridging for the west into the rest of wales. But you'd think that elevated areas would see snow...!

15012903_2706.gif

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marksiwnc Explorer

marksiwnc

Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
Posted

Same here. For my location, I think we never seem to do well with Westerly's  even some north-westerlys. The showers always seem do die out as they head over the Irish sea from the Dublin area. Maybe its just me but hope I'm wrong this time though! We always do well with a North to North westerly - steamers form the North channel....

 

But the lack of warning for wales might do due to the fact that it could be marginal (except for east wales though....)

 

Look at this wet bulb chart -the 100m purple only creeps into east Wales. 200m ridging for the west into the rest of wales. But you'd think that elevated areas would see snow...!

15012903_2706.gif

Hi ian I think we could do well after Saturday morning...

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Ian Price Contributor

Ian Price

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Caernarfon, NW Wales.
  • Location: Nr. Caernarfon, NW Wales.
Posted

Hi ian I think we could do well after Saturday morning...

 

Hi. Yes hope so! A colder northerly later on Saturday onwards...!

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beatpete Enthusiast

beatpete

Posted
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl
Posted

lunch time BBC wales weather forecast looks interesting for Thursday - snow in the south west perhaps

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Jase Newbie

Jase

Posted
  • Location: Borth
  • Location: Borth
Posted (edited)

Well on the net weather 10 day forecast, I had 81% chance of snow!! Today 32% !! Gutted!!

For Thursday, next week looking better

Edited by Jase
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Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted

I think our met office warnings will come Saturday - Monday most likely as disturbances flow down from the north picking up moisture off the Irish Sea where sst's are still quite high for the time of year so convection could produce some thunder snow in places exposed to the nnw north wind! Could be an interesting weekend coming up if the models stay true to what they show! But it could all go ti.s up as has been the case for this winter and let downs don't think I can take anymore lol

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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted

Remember it is VERY difficult with these Northerly scenarios, it won't take much for small disturbances to turn up increasing shower activity

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gareth moo Explorer

gareth moo

Posted
  • Location: Machen, Caerphilly, 80m asl.
  • Location: Machen, Caerphilly, 80m asl.
Posted

Remember it is VERY difficult with these Northerly scenarios, it won't take much for small disturbances to turn up increasing shower activity

I agree Sam. Most of the key ingredients are going to be in place (Thickness, DPs, Uppers). If a little instability and PPN are added to the mix, some of us are going to see snow even to low levels. The largely unforecasted streamer of Dec 2010 deposited around 6-8 inches over 18 hours upon this area, despite the barrier of the Cambrians and Beacons. Not expecting anything like that, but it should make for a good few days following the radar.
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Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted

I agree Sam. Most of the key ingredients are going to be in place (Thickness, DPs, Uppers). If a little instability and PPN are added to the mix, some of us are going to see snow even to low levels. The largely unforecasted streamer of Dec 2010 deposited around 6-8 inches over 18 hours upon this area, despite the barrier of the Cambrians and Beacons. Not expecting anything like that, but it should make for a good few days following the radar.

Yep it's just going to be down to how lucky we are and how intense any ppn will be but agree all the ingredients are there could be a busy weekend of lampost and radar watching coming up

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted (edited)

 

 
 

 

streamer on euro4?

 

Credit: copied from Zephyr on south west thread

 

Exactly as i said yesterday showers  develope  and streamers form ,very interesting 24 hrs from now ,patience is the key.PPVI89.png

Edited by keithlucky
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barton444 Newbie

barton444

Posted
  • Location: Anglesey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Anglesey
Posted

Exactly as i said yesterday showers  develope  and streamers form ,very interesting 24 hrs from now ,patience is the key.

I'm losing the faith I think lol.  What's a streamer please?

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted

I'm losing the faith I think lol.  What's a streamer please?L

Line of showers .You no need to worry ,you smack in the firing line ,especially when the wind swings to the North Friday/Saturday.

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Clair_Witch Enthusiast

Clair_Witch

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, thunder and lightning.
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl
Posted

It's looking marginal for Cardiff again, though I'm remaining optimistic and still hoping. Bring on that snow!

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barton444 Newbie

barton444

Posted
  • Location: Anglesey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Anglesey
Posted

Line of showers .You no need to worry ,you smack in the firing line ,especially when the wind swings to the North Friday/Saturday.

Thank you :)

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Blackjack Apprentice

Blackjack

Posted
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather, wind, snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
Posted

I still believe I'm too far East to really benefit.

 

AberG is smack in the shadow of the Beacons and the Black Mountains, which is a benefit at times for dodging rain but it can be a pain for snow. 

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Jayfromcardiff Experienced

Jayfromcardiff

Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
Posted

It's looking marginal for Cardiff again, though I'm remaining optimistic and still hoping. Bring on that snow!

We usually do well from these type of setups! Especially being on the coast but obviously the wind direction needs to be right.

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caravan les Newbie

caravan les

Posted
  • Location: Overton on dee near wrexham
  • Location: Overton on dee near wrexham
Posted

Not even a warning of snow here and we have done well this winter so far when ever a warning was issued so don't think we will see anything from this event but still hopefull .

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