Wales - Weather Chat

[dbaloo]

woke up and a nice light covering here.the wife is happy as its snowed on her birthday and the mod thread are all in love again with an improvement in the models after last night.not a bad start to a Saturday at all! Plus I get to go to the pub today!

[Stevetynant]

I know taking posts in isolation is not the best thing to do but this was Ian Fergusons latest post on the Mod thread pertinent to us in the West - he's talking about Tuesday amongst a whole raft of other musings it has to be said

 

5. Risk of rain onto frozen surfaces even where no snow. Varied wintry hazards look inevitable but no compelling evidence for a 'nationwide snow event' in strict defined sense. However, threat of disruptive snow for some areas (starting in parts of NI initially under frontal mass ascent; then W Scotland and Wales) is quite obvious, although no regional detail is reliable for now.

 

Game still on - 

[Fujita scale]

Not a bad start as has been said - nice little covering - that means two more days getting up with lying snow than I had last winter !

 

Still looking good for next week, once the cold is here anything can turn up! Too far out to be looking where the fronts will be coming but there should be snow with Wales in the firing line next week.

[TonyH]

5cm lying this morning at Sennybridge (well Tirabad) and a contributor from the Brecon Beacons on UKWW has 10cm.

http://weatherobs.com/

Edited January 17, 2015 by TonyH

[Blackjack]

Snow on the Blorenge. Rained here in AberG this morning. 2.2c

[freeze for all]

Slushy icy deposit on the floor here but hills behind are white

[Cwmbran Eira]

Covering here at 5am but then precip turned to sleet/rain. Washed most of it away.

Mountain says 300-400m had a good covering.

Another miss here!

Never mind.love seeing the pics.

Edited January 17, 2015 by Cwmbran Eira

[whiskers]

Snowed heavy here since early this morning, a few cms lying now,currently 0 degrees and blue skies, happy

[Fujita scale]

I think looking at some of the posts the elevation is key to who is getting snow at this early stage.

 

Not far down road from me there is no lying snow.

 

Next week it might not just be dependent on elevation but inland location - further east more chance of snow - stalling fronts tend to creep in with milder sectors further west but get filtered as they come inland against the cold. The colder air is supposed to work its way in so lets all hope it becomes entrenched so Wales can have a snowfest

[CLH the red dragon]

Nowt here. But that's to be expected. I can see the snowmen though. It's about 3 miles North of me and about 100m higher.

[andymusic]

couple of cms here

[Bafan]

Few cms covering here this morning. Lovely to wake up to. I had a nose out the window at about 6am and the snow was hammering down then. Love it

[Jayfromcardiff]

Nothing here, turned to rain after a bit of snow and hail.

[J10]

Didn't stay up and wondering what the fuss was about, no noise of anything against the window last night.

 

Just damp when getting up and sunny.

 

Good to see some people doing quite well overnight.

[valley blue_501]

Snow on the Blorenge. Rained here in AberG this morning. 2.2c

Had bout 3cm in Blaenavon. Not enough to make a snowman really! Lol

Any forecast for the coming days?

[Jayfromcardiff]

Didn't stay up and wondering what the fuss was about, no noise of anything against the window last night.

 

Just damp when getting up and sunny.

 

Good to see some people doing quite well overnight.

Not sure why I stayed up to be honest lol but there was always a chance. What do you think the chances are of snow on Tuesday?

[J10]

I know taking posts in isolation is not the best thing to do but this was Ian Fergusons latest post on the Mod thread pertinent to us in the West - he's talking about Tuesday amongst a whole raft of other musings it has to be said

 

5. Risk of rain onto frozen surfaces even where no snow. Varied wintry hazards look inevitable but no compelling evidence for a 'nationwide snow event' in strict defined sense. However, threat of disruptive snow for some areas (starting in parts of NI initially under frontal mass ascent; then W Scotland and Wales) is quite obvious, although no regional detail is reliable for now.

 

Game still on - 

 

You look at the models for next week and still a lot of uncertainty. with a wintry event on Tuesday still on.

 

Thereafter GFS has an Atlantic knockdown by Thursday  with ECM a score draw. Not unusual too see ECM more amplified.

Edited January 17, 2015 by J10

[Blackjack]

Had bout 3cm in Blaenavon. Not enough to make a snowman really! Lol

Any forecast for the coming days?

Snow next week in some places. Still way too far out to know where. I suspect even on Monday it will be difficult to predicted exactly where.

Get the feeling that it's not going to be a "disruptive" snow event that most people wish for but I could be completely wrong.

[Cwmbran Eira]

Snow next week in some places. Still way too far out to know where. I suspect even on Monday it will be difficult to predicted exactly where.

Get the feeling that it's not going to be a "disruptive" snow event that most people wish for but I could be completely wrong.

Tend to agree. I think this again will be a chilly phase rather that a proper cold one with proper deep snow. Hope we're both wrong though

[J10]

In the Next 24 hours another couple of events.

 

1.  An area of precipitation moving east across South Wales (9pm - midnight) giving a wintry mix, possibly settling snow to similar levels to previously .

 

The fact that today daytime will not be that warm, will mean cold is at all levels of the atmosphere improves snow chances what works against is earlier in the evening, so surface temps not getting so cold overnight, decreases snow chances.

 

2. A NNW flow setting up overnight (3am-6am) so the chance of wintry / snow showers setting up for a time could give a few cms in places.

 

The next 24 hours very much tends to support the comments above of a cold spell with some snow but not bitterly cold with widespread heavy snow.

[Marcus_surfer]

Quite a disappointment overnight I expected something because of the low temperatures and dew points but we ended up with rain, not even hail or sleet. I can see snow in the mountains though about 20miles away. The weather looks very mixed and marginal for wales I must say, it looks like coastal areas will see outbreaks of rain for the next few days whilst inland and higher routes see some snow and feeling raw, but myself, I can't see any widespread heavy snow events.

Edited January 17, 2015 by Marcus_surfer

[A_T]

snowing a little here

[Fujita scale]

I think any expectations of widespread snow for Wales next 48 hours need to be tempered a little and the bar taken down a few notches.

 

Certainly be some accumulations at higher elevations but this is typical in these situations where showers dry up - temperatures will drop quickly overnight - ice being a main problem.

 

This lower temperature should enable any activity coming in, although not very organised, fall as snow.

 

Lets hope same as this morning,  a few people on here wake up with another white surprise.

[Snowyowl9]

Showers have turned more sleety here,there only light and fizzling,fading before they hit the west midlands.

Temp 2.4c and SW wind is back not as it really went away lol.

[J10]

Just popped down to Mumbles and a few sleety showers. - making 5 days of wintry precipitation in a row, 3 of snow, probably more than last winter combined lol

 

Whenever there is an onshore wind, it makes conditions more marginal for Coastal areas. [as everyone knows]

 

That is why NNW winds tend to be better, so precipitation without the drawbacks. This is forecast overnight however precipitation amounts are likely to be small.

 

 

But what I am trying to do is enjoy the chase, but at the same time have low expectations, so any snow is a bonus, if you do this you will not be disappointed

 

Also good to see other areas of Wales getting snow if we miss out.

Edited January 17, 2015 by J10