Wales - Weather Chat

[swales]

Thanks for the input guys, apparently my post earlier someone took offence at my attitude.

 

Wish you all good luck but after 11 years on this site that is the final straw, I won't post up any more - even though only in here was the only place I posted.

 

Good luck all,

JK

 

There's no need for that, everybody is welcome here and I enjoy reading everyone's input...  Cymro was being positive about this winter and your reply to him did come across as a bit unfriendly in my opinion. On the other hand it's difficult on the internet to 'tell' how ones coming across, so why don't we all forget about it and chat about the upcoming weather.

I'm quite excited, should see lots of different kind of weather this week and hopefully a some wintriness, especially at the end of the week.

[Bonjangle]

Thanks for the input guys, apparently my post earlier someone took offence at my attitude.

 

Wish you all good luck but after 11 years on this site that is the final straw, I won't post up any more - even though only in here was the only place I posted.

 

Good luck all,

JK

Good bye , sorry to see you go , i think you will be back though when that white stuff start's to fall in your region .

[swales]

Thought I'd put this in here, courtesy of Fergie in the model thread:

 

Ah, righty-Ho. I can share only a past (now 24hr old) E4 prognosis, as not allowed to do so with current one (watch BBC for latest version). But you get the distributional idea we are running with (this prognosis to 00z Weds). I've cut the scale off, because we aren't running with the raw output on amounts and wouldn't want it taken literally. Ditto distribution nuances, not least as this isn't the current output!

[chubbystuff]

Some one has stolen my snow symbols for next week

[andymusic]

[J10]

Seeing it was my post that created this fuss. Perhaps in retrospect I have should put out a general comment than than direct it, but sometimes even this is misconstrued. .

 

I am only trying to keep this forum as friendly as possible and was only trying any slight unpleasantness in the bud.

 

Crackpot is more than welcome to return now or at any time at time in the future as they are a valued member of this community.

 

I have also PMed them to this effect as well.

Edited January 11, 2015 by J10

[Ukwoody]

PLease could someone explain both Fergies post (shaun) and Andys post. Are they good or bad for snow and cold??

 

woody

[Marcus_surfer]

Well to me the weather is no different to last year, looks like its getting increasily stormy again with frequent rain and showers mixed with colder air/squally showers. Snow looks brief and only for the high hills and mountains of Wales.

Edited January 11, 2015 by Marcus_surfer

[dragon falls]

Just keeps changing! Trying to under stand models vortex splitting still learning then been reading Ferguson s post and there talk of spring like days in Feb then the storm this week it keeps on your toes the weather

[J10]

PLease could someone explain both Fergies post (shaun) and Andys post. Are they good or bad for snow and cold??

 

woody

 

Pink on that map equates to snow. To be honest pretty good for snow.

 

The current Met Office guidance is

 

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Sunshine and wintry, locally thundery, showers Tuesday with some snow possible; mainly inland. Turning wet, very windy and milder later on Wednesday before clearing to sunshine and wintry showers Thursday.

 

With Fergie suggesting that a Severe Weather warning for Ice and Snow is expected to be issued tomorrow morning as we closer to the time frame. [He was concentrating on SW England at the time.]

 

My initial thoughts for this week was for snow to be largely confined to hillier areas, current Met Office guidance seems to contradict this.

Edited January 11, 2015 by J10

[Ukwoody]

Thank you J10.  DRagon, I am totally lost at the moment so I understand your confusion. It literally seems to change by the hour lol

[Ukwoody]

I suspect once again we will only get rain or sleet here in Pembs

[J10]

Some charts giving conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.

 

Edited January 11, 2015 by J10

[swales]

I suspect once again we will only get rain or sleet here in Pembs

 

Just have to keep fingers crossed, probably the best prospects for snow so far this winter.

 

Looking forward to MetO updates tomorrow.

 

Edit: Thanks for sharing charts J10, much appreciated.

Edited January 11, 2015 by shaunwales

[keithlucky]

Snow risks charts for Tuesday A couple of cms ?

Edited January 11, 2015 by keithlucky

[Ukwoody]

I'll cross my legs as well haha

[bradymk]

Think some maybe underestimating the depth of just how cold this incoming PM air could be. a PM west/north west flow rarely delivers for snow unless you are on higher ground but I think the period Tuesday/ tues night may deliver snow for a lot. Dew points below freezing for all of wales by the evening with low uppers and thickness too. It could all change and it is quite marginal but good chance of seeing some falling snow Tuesday night and also Thursday night/Friday. It is not the cold setup we all want but it could deliver some falling snow at least for a time. Keep an eye, met office issuing any warnings tomorrow.

[Scarlet_Snow]

First post back in a little while, would be nice for an "upgrade" in terms of temperatures being slightly cooler than forecasted, especially for us near the coast/lower levels where 90% of the time its just that degree or two too warm for snow unfortunately.

[chubbystuff]

Just looked at the met office and they have heavy snow forecast early hours of Wed morning for my area, don't normally check met office website as they have had it so wrong on many of occasions. Hope they have got it right this time.

[TonyH]

Well to me the weather is no different to last year, looks like its getting increasily stormy again with frequent rain and showers mixed with colder air/squally showers. Snow looks brief and only for the high hills and mountains of Wales.

Nothing like last year! This time last Winter I had recorded 340mm rain this Winter just 203mm. Nor have we had the constant high winds, I have not recorded windspeeds above 45mph this Winter (so far) while last year many days had higher gusts than this by now up to 60mph.

Edited January 11, 2015 by TonyH

[TonyH]

I am fairly confident of some snow this week inland above 200m, below that much more marginal and unlikely along the coast. I feel that sea temperatures are preventing the low uppers from delivering thus far, given the fairly favourable synoptics, but that they are cooling all the time. Another factor is that snow even if it falls may struggle to settle at low altitude given the high soil temperatures from all the mild weather of late.

[andymusic]

[andymusic]

 

[Cwmbran Eira]

1st snow forecast for me for quite some time. 3am Wednesday Morning

Edited January 12, 2015 by Cwmbran Eira

[bradymk]

Metoffice snow/ice warning just issued for most of Wales. Accumulations likely only 100+ metres however