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Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Decently sunny day here too, for the most part anyway. Went out for a cycle this morning in the sun, only for it to cloud over for most of the ride, then clear up again after I'd got home. Enjoyed it anyway.

Looking forward to the brighter, chiller start to Dec that's forecast, even if it doesn't bring us any of the white stuff quite yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Lochaber
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever is happening but partial to a snow drift
  • Location: Lochaber

I've had to scrap the ice off my car quite a few times this November so far.  It is a pain in the posterior when you are late and trying to get to work but does make it feel more seasonal - that's about four times more than last year so far.  

 

Travelling between the central belt and Lochaber the difference in weather is only going to get more interesting as the winter progresses -  hopefully.  Definitely feels  like there will be a frost in the glen tonight so my wee car is wearing it's wee foil blanket, front and back, scraping no more!  The BBC even said it was going to feel more like winter this week - I do hope they have got it right.

Edited by snawbaw
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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

Happy St Andrews Day! We've finally reached the end of autumn which has seen a fair bit of traditional cloud and rain although over the past few months it has seemed a little too persistently mild to truly notice the transition from summer to winter. Hopefully this winter won't be a repeat of last years horror show.

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Fine day here today with some sunny periods,calm but cooler feeling at a maximum of 8c. Currently 2c with a ground frost even before tomorrows front. Sun now very low in the sky so the countryside looks wintry.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Just checked and tonight's low for here is forecast as 5C on the BBC Weather Web pages. It's actually sat at 0.9C currently according to my weather station. Not sure if I'll see a frost in the morning or if the front will move in too early for that.

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Indeed Norance seen this on twitter.....shows the silvery tay in its best light

post-15765-0-91006600-1417422402_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Well it hit a low of -0.1C overnight, but as expected the temperature was already up to around 7C at 7am when I surfaced. Started out mainly clear with a stunning sunrise on my drive to work but it's already started to cloud over, with rain forecast later. Nice to see forecast highs of 4 or 5C for here from Tue through to Sat, much more seasonal.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

As much as there's nothing exceptionally interesting in the forecast for the next week or so, it is still a decent holding pattern if nothing else, and if we can get away with generally dry conditions with temperatures near or below average with the potential for some wintry showers (tonight into tomorrow but moreso Friday) during what looks likely to be one of the flattest patterns we'll see all winter, then I'm quite optimistic about the rest of winter, especially as the MJO, which looks to be the main driver of the NH pattern at the moment, moves into territory more favourable for Greenland height rises by mid month.

I think what we saw in the models with the amplification of the pattern to the west in FI was a hint of what's to come, but we may need to remain patient and enjoy the more benign conditions in the meantime.

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As much as there's nothing exceptionally interesting in the forecast for the next week or so, it is still a decent holding pattern if nothing else, and if we can get away with generally dry conditions with temperatures near or below average with the potential for some wintry showers (tonight into tomorrow but moreso Friday) during what looks likely to be one of the flattest patterns we'll see all winter, then I'm quite optimistic about the rest of winter, especially as the MJO, which looks to be the main driver of the NH pattern at the moment, moves into territory more favourable for Greenland height rises by mid month.

I think what we saw in the models with the amplification of the pattern to the west in FI was a hint of what's to come, but we may need to remain patient and enjoy the more benign conditions in the meantime.

 

There's worse holding patterns to be in. Potential for some decent frost and huge potential for freezing fog. Certainly beats 11ºC and rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

There's worse holding patterns to be in. Potential for some decent frost and huge potential for freezing fog. Certainly beats 11ºC and rain.

 

Definitely.

UKMO sticks to its guns and goes for a proper northerly:

UW96-21.GIF?01-17

Uppers for Saturday (the Friday ones aren't loading at the moment) suggest a decent chance of low ground snowfall if we get some precipitation around:

UW120-7.GIF?01-17

Even the more underwhelming GFS(P) has some snowfall:

90-779PUK.GIF?01-12 96-779PUK.GIF?01-12 102-779PUK.GIF?01-12

The next front looks even more interesting, with a bit of amplification to the west giving a cold westerly:

h850t850eu.png

UKMO would get there in the end with that too, although about 12-24 hours later than the GFS.

 

The GFS(P) then goes off on one and blows up an Atlantic low to about 940mb, bringing in a Braer-esque storm:

gfs-0-204.png?12 gfs-2-204.png?12

So certainly not a lack of interest in the charts, especially given it's still early December.

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Posted
  • Location: Gulberwick, Shetland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, storm force winds
  • Location: Gulberwick, Shetland

Some heavy rain today. Wind now veered north-westerly and turning colder, could be a few wintry showers later in the night.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl

Just been in the model thread, possibility being raised of a bit of a blaw at the start of next week?

 

And if some of you are extra lucky, a bit of snaw too? 

 

I say you, I live in Glasgow, so it would take a lot for us to get joining in.

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Definitely.

 

The GFS(P) then goes off on one and blows up an Atlantic low to about 940mb, bringing in a Braer-esque storm:

gfs-0-204.png?12

So certainly not a lack of interest in the charts, especially given it's still early December.

 

The latest ECM is not a million miles away from showing very similar LS :D

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Just been in the model thread, possibility being raised of a bit of a blaw at the start of next week?

 

And if some of you are extra lucky, a bit of snaw too? 

 

I say you, I live in Glasgow, so it would take a lot for us to get joining in.

 

If it was similar to the Braer storm then Glasgow would be hit with drifting snow, as it was back then. I doubt it'll come off but you never know :)

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

people talking about taking a break from the models as 2 weeks of no imminent cold or snow  :sorry: why cant i stay away from the MOD....... interesting dec weather afoot.....confident be thread pics of snow soon

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people talking about taking a break from the models as 2 weeks of no imminent cold or snow  :sorry: why cant i stay away from the MOD....... interesting dec weather afoot.....confident be thread pics of snow soon

 

It'd be a brave man to bet much against any cold or snow for Scotland in the next two weeks. At the same time I wouldn't risk betting too much on there being cold & snow but I'd defo not bet much against it.

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Posted
  • Location: Lochaber
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever is happening but partial to a snow drift
  • Location: Lochaber

the MOD (mad, odd and demented thread) is just too mad, odd and demented for me.  I haven't ventured in there for a long, long while.  I can't lurk without getting annoyed and I'm just too much of a weather(all weather) fan to moan too much about the lack of waist deep snow/ rain/ cats n dogs.  Regional threads are much more coothy. 

 

I love this chart, I'll have two please!

 

uksnowrisk.png

Edited by snawbaw
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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
post-1989-0-53307500-1417473486_thumb.jp

people talking about taking a break from the models as 2 weeks of no imminent cold or snow  :sorry: why cant i stay away from the MOD....... interesting dec weather afoot.....confident be thread pics of snow soon

Erm........didn't you get married on Saturday? and you can't stay away from the MOD? :rolleyes: ....Edo!

I didn't post congrats as I thought you might be off somewhere nice!   So......CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!

Edited by Blitzen
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

people talking about taking a break from the models as 2 weeks of no imminent cold or snow  :sorry: why cant i stay away from the MOD....... interesting dec weather afoot.....confident be thread pics of snow soon

These things are always latitude dependent - down south they're not likely to get much joy from the upper air temperatures, which means no snow for them. However, given that this is the necessary 'mild' Atlantic driven spell that was predicted before we can have a shot at more prolonged cold later in the winter, I don't see how they can be complaining at this temperature profile:

ANOM2m_mean_europe.png

However, even in the next few hours there's going to be some hill snow about:

nmm_uk1-42-8-3.png?01-23

 

Maybe even down to lower levels on Friday morning:

prectypeuktopo.pngD

DPs looks reasonable for the back edge, although temperatures maybe a bit high:

ukpaneltemp.png

Maybe even some lying snow to lower levels off the next one on Sunday:

144-780PUK.GIF?01-18 240-780PUK.GIF?01-18

 

So all in all, not a bad start to December, and that's even with a bloody great vortex sitting over Greenland  :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Even if we're probably not staring down the face of an impending blizzard the MOD thread and models at the moment are pretty addictive. I just keep reminding myself that when people are saying "no cold or snow" they are generally talking south of Birmingham. I'd not be too surprised to see the local hills around here with a dusting of snow on top within the next week, and they aren't that high either. Anything beyond about 4 days on the current models is likely to change I'd say.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

The latest ECM is not a million miles away from showing very similar LS :D

You got me  :rofl:

Not quite as windy, and to be honest, while wind storms aren't great, they do help amplify the pattern and pump some colder air south:

ECM1-192.GIF?01-0 ECM1-240.GIF?01-0

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

Morning all,

Coldest night of the Autumn/Winter thus far, temp currently +1.4c and still falling. Not quite my first air frost but a decent chance of that occuring tonight.

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You got me  :rofl:

Not quite as windy, and to be honest, while wind storms aren't great, they do help amplify the pattern and pump some colder air south:

ECM1-192.GIF?01-0 ECM1-240.GIF?01-0

 

The ECM has the Pritt Stick out and sticks with it this morning:

 

post-2844-0-26241700-1417506985_thumb.gi

 

Edit: It's more than likely that the GFS is overcooking the low, we'll find out soon enough, but I'd expect it back off the sub-940 low it has been cooking up over the past few runs. This should bring the low a lot further south than Iceland.

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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