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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

stole this off SE thread

 

post-15765-0-27792200-1422538277.jpg

 

any of our polar low experts around to comment?

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Posted
  • Location: Dunblane, 108m asl
  • Location: Dunblane, 108m asl

stole this off SE thread

 

attachicon.gifpolarlowlow.jpg

 

any of our polar low experts around to comment?

 

Certainly could be, Euro 4 has a wee closed low for nowish but that looks a lot more dramatic. Hopefully MistyQueen will report in soon as to what it's doing.

Not an expert BTW.

Edited by scottishandy
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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Certainly could be, Euro 4 has a wee closed low for nowish but that looks a lot more dramatic. Hopefully MistyQueen will report in soon as to what it's doing.

Not an expert BTW.

 

I don't see any sign of it affecting the ppn and the air's not cold enough either. But again, I'm no expert either!

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Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury
  • Location: Aylesbury

stole this off SE thread

 

attachicon.gifpolarlowlow.jpg

 

any of our polar low experts around to comment?

 

I think this could well be a polar low. The 500 hPa temperatures are around -37/-38, which combined with the 'warm' seas around there leads to plenty of convective instability. Recent research has used a temperature difference of 43 degrees as one of the criteria in detecting potential systems. Synoptically it is in the right environment, and it doesn't look like a frontal feature to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

Forecasts are a bit vague about this band coming down from the north tonight! Has anyone got any further forecast info about when it is likely to reach the central belt? :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night

I get the impression it's going to miss us (well, Central parts) and skirt down the western side through Glasgow...

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Posted
  • Location: Paisley or Port Glasgow
  • Location: Paisley or Port Glasgow

watchin radar there, precip seems to be vanishing into thin air, well even thinner air, as it nears land. Aka snow shield!

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

Chiono in the model thread reckons that could be a polar low just to the NW of Scotland, this could get very interesting. Or maybe not!

 

Just to add few people in MT now saying its definitely a polar low... 

Edited by Bullseye
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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire

The Met O now seems to be stressing snow more in its forecast for this evening.

 

It has another yellow warning out, and says

"a small area of low pressure is expected to move southeastwards and bring a more persistent spell of rain, sleet and snow to parts of western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and the Midlands."

Polar Low?

Edited by spindrift1980
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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

Chiono in the model thread reckons that could be a polar low just to the NW of Scotland, this could get very interesting. Or maybe not!

I hate to be a pessimist but while polar lows could certainly form from this weekend onwards, I don't think this is one that we're seeing to the west of Eilean Siar; mid tropospheric temps are about 7-10'C too high (although the seas are relatively mild in the area so this might be something of a false indicator and again, this will be less of an issue come the weekend), the low isn't wrapped in particularly cold air and its structure seems a bit too cyclonic and organised to be a classic comma-feature.

I could very well be wrong though, but as it stands I don't think it will have any tangible affect. Keep an eye though, if it is indeed a lion under the guise of a sheep, it will develop rapidly over the next 6-12 hours. Perhaps LSS and others could add their thoughts?

Edited by NorthernRab
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

The Met O now seems to be stressing snow more in its forecast for this evening.

 

It has another yellow warning out, and says

"a small area of low pressure is expected to move southeastwards and bring a more persistent spell of rain, sleet and snow to parts of western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and the Midlands."

Polar Low?

Polar Low.

 

Skip towards the end.

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Forecasts are a bit vague about this band coming down from the north tonight! Has anyone got any further forecast info about when it is likely to reach the central belt? :closedeyes:

It looks to me like there's 2 potential bands - one around 5-6pm and another around midnight. The first one will primarily affect the west, but showers associated could reach as far east as the Forth:

post-9298-0-03182200-1422544663_thumb.pn Temperatures during and after the band hit look to be around 0C so there shouldn't be too much issue with marginality at that stage.

The second band looks like a proper front, associated with the centre of the low (although this itself looks like it'll stay just east of us) and it looks more likely to affect the east coast than anything we've seen in the spell to date:

post-9298-0-60652300-1422545264_thumb.pn

However, there's a lot of uncertainty with these features, with EURO4 having the main band hitting further west:

15013000_2906.gif

Neither model has it getting marginal at the surface at least until Friday morning though, and by that point the wishbone effect will (temporarily)kick in, sparing most of us too much in the way of rain and hopefully avoiding too much melt:

15013009_2906.gif

until Saturday when colder uppers are likely to march south again, accompanied by more snow, possibly preceeded by sleet/freezing rain:

15013106_2906.gif15013106_2906.gif

Given the uncertainty with precipitation placement it's not that surprising that the MO have just issued a blanket snow and ice yellow warning for today and tomorrow - it could snow almost anywhere in the next 15 hours.

 

Just to clarify, I'm not sure if it is a Polar low but it seems to correspond to the first feature and the precipitation tracking towards Northern Ireland/the far southwest rather than the second one. The 6Z showed this up pretty well, although uppers look a bit warm cored for it being a 'proper' PL rather than just a secondary low, but I've seen a fairly liberal definition of a Polar low used quite widely so you could probably call it one:

post-9298-0-39577100-1422547754_thumb.pn

It does look like at least pushing showers further inland this evening but probably a bit too far west for a direct hit for most of us.

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Rab I think you could of course be right and this may just be the modelled feature...whatever it is it does however appear to be gaining strength....I suppose crossing down the country NW and stalling over Perth is a bit of an ambitious thought but I need something to cling to if all these wishbone predictions come true...

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Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

A major positive from today is that not too much melted, considering temps of about 3c and only a thin covering in the ground. Yes, there has been melt but not as much as I thought there'd be.

I could cry though as my mum reports that we have 6/7 inches back home and all roads are blocked (gritters and snowploughs will focus on all other roads before ours as we're too far out of town). Unbelievable.

I've missed it all :(

I'm back on Friday so here's hoping we (all of Scotland haha) get a top up tonight and then that 7 inches should hold for a day until I can get some photos uploaded on Saturday :)

Most of the schools are closed too

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

I think that must be heading our way it looks impressive!

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Posted
  • Location: Moffat - D&G
  • Location: Moffat - D&G

Unfortunately, as per LSS's post above, it looks like that's the stuff that's going to zap through Norn Ireland and then onto Englandshire. Dammit ... It's Scotland's snow !!

Edited by moffatross
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