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Paul

By Paul
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mistyqueen Experienced

mistyqueen

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
Posted

Afternoon Kilties! Well, it does seem as if Skye will get a wee blast of the white stuff after all. Whether or not it lies is another matter, it's so mild here today at 8.3c and the odd shower of rain. It doesn't augur well for snow actually lying, especially where I am, almost at sea level! So, don't mind me, but I'm not quite ready to ramp just yet, I'll maybe wait until Thursday to see if we still have any snow lying.... then I could be ready for take off!

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M1245 Rookie

M1245

Posted
  • Location: Fife
  • Location: Fife
Posted

New York is a prime example of how difficult it is to predict snow and how much of it will fall.

Some places were expecting up to 90cm and new York ended up with only 15cm which many of us Scots could see in the next 24-48 hours.

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snowy owl Community Regular

snowy owl

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
Posted

Hawesy I agree it's not that likely easties will see all that much but hopefully something around rush hour tomorrow looks feasible:)

It is a waiting and watching radar/lamppost shot I think. Although I think my daughters hockey tomorrow afternoon/evening might be cancelled :)

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

Hi Cmd, did you read nick F 's post in the model thread this morning about conditions being ripe for polar low formation at the weekend ? you used to be on polar low lookout in past cold spells, so maybe a job for the weekend.... Fingers crossed !

 

I've gone back and read his post now and then looked at the 500mb temps. Certainly some very cold 500mb temps forecast, but I'm not sure they're quite cold enough for polar lows to affect the UK. Hope I'm wrong though as a couple of PLs wouldn't go amiss. One for the west, one for the east. I'm an equal opportunities wishful thinker.

 

The WRF NMM 2km on Meteociel (http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=330) has the snow risk increasing from 9am tomorrow, and parts of the Highlands and west central Scotland getting an utter pasting at various times. Inverclyde looks like taking a thumping, I think I picked the wrong days to visit my parents as we're now back home in Kelso. It'll be interesting to see what the Euro4 12z spits out in the next hour or two :D

 

Euro4 12z can be found here, and it looks very tasty for some areas, particularly around the M-8 at rush hour tomorrow afternoon into the evening: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=30&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted

Hoping to wake up to at least some snow tomorrow. It will be so distracting though during my prelims because I'll be wondering whether its snowing or not. The sooner I finish, the sooner I find out. :)

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snowy owl Community Regular

snowy owl

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
Posted

Looks like more probability of heavier snow here around lunchtime onwards tomorrow?! Interesting

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

I've gone back and read his post now and then looked at the 500mb temps. Certainly some very cold 500mb temps forecast, but I'm not sure they're quite cold enough for polar lows to affect the UK. Hope I'm wrong though as a couple of PLs wouldn't go amiss. One for the west, one for the east. I'm an equal opportunities wishful thinker.

 

The WRF NMM 2km on Meteociel (http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=330) has the snow risk increasing from 9am tomorrow, and parts of the Highlands and west central Scotland getting an utter pasting at various times. Inverclyde looks like taking a thumping, I think I picked the wrong days to visit my parents as we're now back home in Kelso. It'll be interesting to see what the Euro4 12z spits out in the next hour or two :D

 

Euro4 12z can be found here, and it looks very tasty for some areas, particularly around the M-8 at rush hour tomorrow afternoon into the evening: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=30&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

EURO4 often overdoes the snow, but it has >5cm for almost all of D+G, the Borders, the Central Belt, Lothians, Stirlingshire, and basically everything west of of the A9 right the way up to Caithness, and >10cm for West Lothian(in fact there's a 20cm in there somewhere), Midlothian, East Ayrshire, inland D+G, the West and North Highlands and isolated spots around Inverclyde (presumably Ross' house) and Harthill:

15012912_2712.gif

Now, I would dismiss this as overkill but to midnight the NMM has something pretty similar to that:

nmm_uk1-26-36-0.png?27-18

Interesting...

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stevofunnelcl Aficionado

stevofunnelcl

Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
Posted (edited)

plenty of old snow on ground, journey to aviemore

 

IMG00197-20150127-1454.jpg

Edited by stevofunnelcl
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

EURO4 often overdoes the snow, but it has >5cm for almost all of D+G, the Borders, the Central Belt, Lothians, Stirlingshire, and basically everything west of of the A9 right the way up to Caithness, and >10cm for West Lothian(in fact there's a 20cm in there somewhere), Midlothian, East Ayrshire, inland D+G, the West and North Highlands and isolated spots around Inverclyde (presumably Ross' house) and Harthill:

 

Now, I would dismiss this as overkill but to midnight the NMM has something pretty similar to that:

 

Interesting...

 

I've found the Euro4 does overdo the accumulations, but the charts showing the falling precip are not bad if you focus on the darker pinks and with the caveat that you need to remember the charts I've posted are for three hours back from the frame time and not the full six hours (as pointed out by you previously). The NMMs on Meteociel (both the 2k and 5k) always seem to overdo the precip on both the falling and accumulated charts.

 

The last frame of the 12z ECM looks bizarre, almost as if the high is going to settle towards Scandinavia and allow an easterly in. Like an overcutting high instead of an undercutting low.

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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dubmuffin Enthusiast

dubmuffin

Posted
  • Location: Wallington, S London (now working from home)
  • Weather Preferences: hot sunny summers to ripen the veg and cold snowy winters of course
  • Location: Wallington, S London (now working from home)
  • Popular Post
Posted

Just dropping in from the snow starved south east. This year I decided to get my snow fix by booking a weekend in Aviemore. Just after I booked it looked like all the snow was going to melt before I arrived, but the weather gods have been kind, so now I'm hopeful that there will be plenty of fresh snow for us by Friday. Looking forward to my first ever skiing lesson

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skyeblue Explorer

skyeblue

Posted
  • Location: cumbernauld 20.000 ft asl
  • Location: cumbernauld 20.000 ft asl
Posted

Right big snowstorm inbound .get the mayor of the central belt told

everybody inside

nobody move ...

no vehicles on the road whot so ever

only ploughs & emergency services

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Hairy Celt Maestro

Hairy Celt

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
Posted

Right big snowstorm inbound .get the mayor of the central belt told

everybody inside

nobody move ...

no vehicles on the road whot so ever

only ploughs & emergency services

 

Scuse me (lock up your daughters, lock up your wife) I just noticed, your elevation... Where can I get some of what you're on?

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over_the_rainbow Enthusiast

over_the_rainbow

Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
Posted

Expecting pictures please people! Think this is a bit of a non event for us in Perth but i do like seeing all the snowy pics!!  :friends:

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Expecting pictures please people! Think this is a bit of a non event for us in Perth but i do like seeing all the snowy pics!!  :friends:

 

Defo, we'll start a petition to get them banned from NW for anyone who gets loads of snow and fails to post loads of pictures.

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snowy owl Community Regular

snowy owl

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
Posted

Make sure the phone is charged - in case of power outs during the storm. Can still take pics and hope the 4G is working lol - if you're lucky enough to be in an area with 3G or 4G lol

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NorthernRab Accomplished

NorthernRab

Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

Right big snowstorm inbound .get the mayor of the central belt told

everybody inside

nobody move ...

no vehicles on the road whot so ever

only ploughs & emergency services

Here in the Highlands we've decided to capture Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy on one of their rare visits back home. Charlie is going to clear the roads with his breath like some kind of whisky-dragon whereas Danny boy is going to act as a snow-blower by reciting his typical "IM A TEUCHTER TOO GUYS AWRIGHT?! NOTHING TORY ABOUT ME!" guff to every flake of snow that will listen.

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Big Innes Madori Community Regular

Big Innes Madori

Posted
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit
  • Weather Preferences: Hot N' Sunny / Cauld N' Snawy
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit
Posted

Scuse me (lock up your daughters, lock up your wife) I just noticed, your elevation... Where can I get some of what you're on?

Aye HC!

He's high a'right.

Big Innes

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Allyw12 Contributor

Allyw12

Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
Posted

Expecting pictures please people! Think this is a bit of a non event for us in Perth but i do like seeing all the snowy pics!!  :friends:

I'm stil hoping to see some snow at some point over the next few days just enough for my wee monkeys to get the sledge out. I've given up on getting a snow day, I think we'll need snow like 2010 for that to happen :(

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edo Accomplished

edo

Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
Posted

I'm stil hoping to see some snow at some point over the next few days just enough for my wee monkeys to get the sledge out. I've given up on getting a snow day, I think we'll need snow like 2010 for that to happen :(

 

I am quietly confident over the next two days enough heavy showers will make it through to reopen the sledge runs....i expect similar to a couple of weeks ago

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Hairy Celt Maestro

Hairy Celt

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
Posted

Make sure the phone is charged - in case of power outs during the storm. Can still take pics and hope the 4G is working lol - if you're lucky enough to be in an area with 3G or 4G lol

 

Lol indeed, lucky to get 2G here... don't get me started. <<Off-topic mode disable function>>

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Stuart Taylor Contributor

Stuart Taylor

Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Location: Motherwell
Posted

Hiya, is there a time when this is going to start affecting more Northern areas and we can see what this bad boy has in store for those of us further South?  I enjoy tracking these kinds of things as they make their way across the country.

 

Am I right in saying that, right now, everything is in the lap of the Gods and it's just plain old luck (or lack of it) when it comes to trying to forecast snow from something like this?

 

I face a commute from Motherwell to Kilmarnock in the morning which I am expecting to be fine, it is the return journey in the evening that I am a little nervous about.

 

Good luck everyone that wants snow :)

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Zerouali lives Enthusiast

Zerouali lives

Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen 33m asl
  • Location: Aberdeen 33m asl
Posted

Looks like even Aberdeen will see several inches of snow between Saturday and Wednesday next week as that Northerly sets in.

 

With all the westerly winds, we've had an incredible sunny winter...or so it seems.

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cscrim Apprentice

cscrim

Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft
Posted

I am quietly confident over the next two days enough heavy showers will make it through to reopen the sledge runs....i expect similar to a couple of weeks ago

Meanwhile, I'm saying nothing to avoid tempting fate.

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