Scotland - Weather Chat

[snowy owl]

Will wait & see till nearer timescale for any ideas of snow potential for Easties.

Still all looks v promising indeed.

It's been fun chart watching so far.

[jellybaby1969]

It's Piers and Madden again so we're fek'd now. 

Seriously snow maps people have posted here and elsewhere show big gaps over Eastern Scotland. Can't see that being correct if it is going round to a straight Northerly by the weekend, at least not for the NE. May need an Easterly component for here though. If the initial blast is from North of West E central Scotland will miss the worst I fear. Plenty chances of troughs or disturbances though with Low Pressure not too far away so plenty to keep the interest up.

Way to early to look at the final detail...in this circumstance it could well be nowcast events. Yes initially those to the more western side of kilty land look in the firing line.

[grifter]

Pretty decent output for west of Scotland snow wed to Thu.

Ohh we'll pay for this - 10 years of repeat 2013/14 winters!

[grifter]

Morning all,

A mild 7c here in Crail this morning, mostly cloudy and breezy with the odd brighter spell.

My crude take on the models would suggest cold air from the west with the chance of snow to low levels Wed-Thu, with favoured areas perhaps the same as saw snow last week. Then a less cold interlude Fri-Sat with snowfall possibly confined to the hills. Then from late next weekend a renewed push of cold air, this time from the north so perhaps a better opportunity for snow for the Aberdeen contingent who have largely missed out so far. All subject to change of course but an interesting 10 days ahead.

As for the possibility of snow on the ground in Crail....well I won't dig out the sledge just yet!

 

It's a total rinse and repeat again

[Ruzzi]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the havoc of December 6th 2010 was caused by a feature travelling down from the north. Famously poorly modelled and MetO warnings were updated pretty much after it had started as they were massively under par in relation to what was unfolding. My point is that in these set-ups, features can pop up at very short notice, and with the air-stream from this approaching cold spell (always feel cautious saying that) looking to be very unstable, I'd say there was as good a chance as any of some surprises popping up on short notice. Not suggesting anything like that famous day in 2010, however details and about snow and predictions limiting snow to coasts can never be predicted a week in advance. Eyes on wednesday/thursday first of all then we will see what direction this is beginning to unfold. One thing I do remember in 09/10 and 10/11 more so 09/10 was the ability for heavy falls of snow to come out of nowhere. There was a few occasions where nothing of any note was forecast for my location and I'd wake up in the morning to falling snow and a very different forecast from the night before. It got to the stage that any time the MetO forecast snow showers for here or 2-5 CM of snow locally, I'd expect double or triple it. Point is, there's no point getting hung up on snow chances just now. Getting the cold air in place is always the first step and is more important than trying to predict snow chances nearly a week ahead. Features will frequenty pop up especially in unstable air masses with small features and embedded troughs making their way across the country. I'll stress this ofcourse isn't always the case and is never guaranteed, but there is always that scope for opportunity when the cold air is aloft. Eyes on mid-week first, then take it 1 or 2 days at a time when the cold air is here. If anyone can remember a special snowfall being modelled nearly a week in advance then it would be interesting to see, but my suggestion is that these snowfalls don't ever arise until shortly before they strike. Keep believing, somehwere will get a good dumping!!! 

[NUT]

I not sure how it will pan out and might be wrong (sorry somebody correct me if I am) but GFS is still an absolute creamer for cold for wednesday/thursday. How that will translate to possibly anything wintry god knows

[Big Innes Madori]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the havoc of December 6th 2010 was caused by a feature travelling down from the north. Famously poorly modelled and MetO warnings were updated pretty much after it had started as they were massively under par in relation to what was unfolding. My point is that in these set-ups, features can pop up at very short notice, and with the air-stream from this approaching cold spell (always feel cautious saying that) looking to be very unstable, I'd say there was as good a chance as any of some surprises popping up on short notice. Not suggesting anything like that famous day in 2010, however details and about snow and predictions limiting snow to coasts can never be predicted a week in advance. Eyes on wednesday/thursday first of all then we will see what direction this is beginning to unfold. One thing I do remember in 09/10 and 10/11 more so 09/10 was the ability for heavy falls of snow to come out of nowhere. There was a few occasions where nothing of any note was forecast for my location and I'd wake up in the morning to falling snow and a very different forecast from the night before. It got to the stage that any time the MetO forecast snow showers for here or 2-5 CM of snow locally, I'd expect double or triple it. Point is, there's no point getting hung up on snow chances just now. Getting the cold air in place is always the first step and is more important than trying to predict snow chances nearly a week ahead. Features will frequenty pop up especially in unstable air masses with small features and embedded troughs making their way across the country. I'll stress this ofcourse isn't always the case and is never guaranteed, but there is always that scope for opportunity when the cold air is aloft. Eyes on mid-week first, then take it 1 or 2 days at a time when the cold air is here. If anyone can remember a special snowfall being modelled nearly a week in advance then it would be interesting to see, but my suggestion is that these snowfalls don't ever arise until shortly before they strike. Keep believing, somehwere will get a good dumping!!!

After last week's cauld spell,ahm no sae sure aboot the auld get the cauld in first chestnut!!!

We had a good cauld week and fek a' snaw! A couple of days earlier we had 4" o' snaw fae a PM Westerly.

Big hoping for better this time Innes

[A Winter's Tale]

I not sure how it will pan out and might be wrong (sorry somebody correct me if I am) but GFS is still an absolute creamer for cold for wednesday/thursday. How that will translate to possibly anything wintry god knows

There's a huge amount of potential in the charts but we can't be sure what whether that potential will transpire into reality until the event arrives. Very cold uppers in a brisk WNWly wind in theory could deliver a very significant and widespread snowfall (especially for western areas). My interpretation of the charts is the heaviest and most persistent precipitation will be in western parts of the Highlands and Ayrshire and snow could affect western/southern parts of the central belt and into the Lothians but perhaps struggling to reach Eastern areas north of the Forth. Precipitation charts seem to suggest a strip of the county between Dumbarton to Stirling just missing out on the best of the action further west and south. I'm keeping expectations relatively low given the event is too far out for details to be pinned down and there's always a degree of uncertainty regarding any snow event in this part of the world (and I'm already very satisfied with the week of 4-6cm of lying snow, so this event would be a very welcome bonus and I'm hoping for a significant snowfall in excess of 10cm in many areas - the ingredients are there for the Atlantic to act as a snow making machine, especially if troughs are embedded in the flow).

After that it is even more uncertain with low pressure moving southward across the country at the end of next week. Uppers may rise a little but there are other factors which are favourable for precipitation to be largely snow in most areas. But in such a set up, at this range it is impossible to forecast the sort of precipitation and features which are likely to arise at short notice. A fax chart posted on the MT suggested various troughs/occlusions with Scotland's name on it coming down the Arctic late next week. Next weekend should provide a cold northerly before settling down but remaining cold for a few days. This doesn't look like a prolonged cold spell as we lose heights over the Arctic, replaced with lower heights/ thickness which allows for more energy from the eastern segment if the PV to be transferred back westward to Greenland/Canada which prevents proper, sustained blocking.

[Allyw12]

Awww just seen New York could 20+ inches of snow I was in New York 2 months ago why couldn't of this happened when I was there damm it

[GraemeB]

Might be wrong, but the latest GFS shortens the incoming snow to Wednesday night for a few hours...

[Northern Strath]

Heavy snow here, hopefully it's just getting the practice in for further in the week

BBCs Carol summarising her forecast with "cold this week, cold next week but not as cold"

Ach see what happens eh.. upgrades/downgrades ahoy over the period no doubt

[snowy owl]

Oh heck cold and sleet for wed/thurs here? im getting that sinking feeling. Looks like we're in a bit less of the cold than first thought here.

Why does America need to have a cold spell at the same time, fire up the jet and potentially nudge our cold away earlier?

Hmmmm I hate Monday's

[mistyqueen]

Mornin'Kilties! Was very mild yesterday topping out at 12.2c. Nippier this morning at 3.3 and cloudy. As for this snow that's supposed to be arriving later this week, which forecast should I believe? One says rain, one says snow and yet another says hee-haw! Take it as it comes and don't get too carried away at the thought of a snowflake or two!

[Ravelin]

Another bright, cool (around 2C at 8am) morning here with blue skies and sun. I just can't get excited about mid week onwards. Looks like it's back to a colder pattern, which at least makes it feel like winter, but I don't see any snow symbols appearing on the forecasts for here yet.

[November13]

Yep I am not getting too excited about Wed/Thurs yet! We have all been there before. Lets see how it pans out. Just wish we didn't have the Tuesday mild day getting in the way before the model watching starts!

[lorenzo]

Still just outside the real hi-res for mesoscale modelling, Weds. mid-day sees the encroaching colder air filtering in from the west. Another cold westerly, definitely a theme of late..

 

 

This time not as lazy as the last set of showers travelling at snails pace on radar, should be a little more lively, 700hPa charts shows the flow turn from W to NW to NNW as the week goes on.

 

Couple of further ppn type showing potential for snow just about anywhere as troughs / fronts drop in and convection peps up. Down to radar to see how much juice they have to deliver further inland or southwards. Overnight Thurs / Fri appears to be best chances for NE as occlusion travels south.

 

ECM by 144 hrs has -10 approaching the North and looking pretty unstable prior to that.

 

It's a decent cold punch, some places will get a pasting and blizzard conditions, however looking on the news over the next 48 hrs everyone will be salivating over New England and the absolute snowmaggedon they are about to get with a KU storm about to lay down some historic totals. Well envious, will be spectacular the forecasts are just madness ! 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NESIS_storms

 

 

Edited January 26, 2015 by lorenzo

[Guest]

Oh heck cold and sleet for wed/thurs here? im getting that sinking feeling. Looks like we're in a bit less of the cold than first thought here.

Why does America need to have a cold spell at the same time, fire up the jet and potentially nudge our cold away earlier?

Hmmmm I hate Monday's

 

I'm feeling a bit meh too...charts are in nowhere land again.

Edited January 26, 2015 by CatchMyDrift

[November13]

On another note I was infuriated hearing people talking about first signs of spring on Radio Scotland this morning. It's bloody January get a grip. Spring in Scotland doesn't come until mid March! The reason for the discussion was snow drops appearing. Again they are a winter flower and always appear at the end of Jan if there is no snow on the ground. It's nearly as annoying as seeing summer holiday adverts on Boxing day!

[Guest]

On another note I was infuriated hearing people talking about first signs of spring on Radio Scotland this morning. It's bloody January get a grip. Spring in Scotland doesn't come until mid March! The reason for the discussion was snow drops appearing. Again they are a winter flower and always appear at the end of Jan if there is no snow on the ground. It's nearly as annoying as seeing summer holiday adverts on Boxing day!

 

There's a clue in the name N13...SNOWdrop? :D Totally with you on this one!!

[frogesque]

On another note I was infuriated hearing people talking about first signs of spring on Radio Scotland this morning. It's bloody January get a grip. Spring in Scotland doesn't come until mid March! The reason for the discussion was snow drops appearing. Again they are a winter flower and always appear at the end of Jan if there is no snow on the ground. It's nearly as annoying as seeing summer holiday adverts on Boxing day!

Well, it's a wee bit on the chilly side but otherwise positively springlike here today. Sun's shining, gentle breeze, 6C. The camelia and Magnolia stellata are begining to break bud and yes, we have winter snowdrops in bloom!

 

I'd much rather have this than some of the miserable March weather I've known even if the daffys will be out by then..

 

Edit: And there's still time for some decent snow!

Edited January 26, 2015 by frogesque

[moffatross]

The Weds/Thurs Met Office yellow warning has recently updated its snow figure to 5-10 cm at low level across Scotland/N Ireland.

[Stormeh]

The Weds/Thurs Met Office yellow warning has recently updated its snow figure to 5-10 cm at low level across Scotland/N Ireland.

Yep the whole of Scotland is now under a yellow warning, I would be happy with 5cm

[Ross B]

Yep, good upgrade. It's also been brought forward to 9am from 3pm  

[GraemeB]

Sounds familiar - didn't they do that last week, then downgrade massively the morning of the "event" ?

 

I'll stick to lamp-post leering on Wednesday....

[Guest]

Yep the whole of Scotland is now under a yellow warning, I would be happy with 5cm

 

I'd be happy with 1cm that stayed long enough to go out for a walk on. Still snowstarved in the SE (as are many parts of the east). I'm up at my parents' until tomorrow night, and they've still got a big patch of snow in the corner of the front grass so it's feeling quite cool and wintery even if the weather isn't cold today.

 

We'll see what happens on Weds & Thurs, by the sounds of it some places are going to get a good dump of snow but I can understand us easties being somewhat underwhelmed when we've been warned before and then gone with next to nothing.