Scotland - Weather Chat

[101_North]

euro 4 one.gifeuro 4 two.gif

 

dew points good

 

ppn good

 

starting to think of a mini ramp

 

[edo]

 

 

brilliant...... one of my fav ever episodes

 

down with this sort of thing

[101_North]

down with this sort of thing

 

Save that for the inevitable sleet

[matty40s]

that is a great site and a great cam on the airport.....i wonder if thats a timed loop or is somebody actually controlling it......certainly a picturesque airport with the waves crashing around it.

It is a timed loop. 

[Hawesy]

 

The words of a wise man! ;-)

 

That's the thing isn't it. Most of us are very wary about getting excited over snow prospects. Years of experience tells us that low-level snow events in Scotland are generally on a knife edge, either temps are marginal or precipitation isn't guaranteed. It's definitely what keeps things interesting. Having lived in Canada for a while there's no fun to be had when you're guaranteed snow on the ground 3 or 4 months a year! (Some may disagree!)

 

I'm now at the stage, having waited 4 years since my last measurable snowfall, where I've forgotten what the synoptics that would bring me snow look like! I'd rate my chances of seeing snow on the ground in Crail tomorrow as less than 10%. I'll be happy with a few flakes in the air!

 

At least for those who do miss out tomorrow it looks like we may get another shot on Tuesday!

[Ross B]

Another meto wind warning now for tonight through the central belt into South Scottie. It mentions a squally cold front with the worst of the wind!! Hopefully as good as last nights squall.

 

BBC forecasts also ramping up the snow for Tuesday now as well :w00t:

[LomondSnowstorm]

The GFS has clearly decided that we got off too lightly this time:

  

 

Those are sustained winds by the way, gusts easily 90-100mph. The track keeps changing so hopefully it'll weaken and end up much further north/south (long term further south probably best).

Still looks decent for snow tomorrow afternoon/evening, again more marginal the further south/west you are (and probably not quite as cold as EURO4 shows) but what falls will almost certainly be snow from about midday through to Sunday morning, so with a bit of luck, and a bit of intensity, we could well see some decent accumulations to low levels.

The consensus seems to be that temperatures for most start off around 3-4C at midday (down drastically from the 12C we could see tonight) before getting down to 1-2C. West of Glasgow may see temperatures struggle to get below 3C except in the heaviest showers and that would obviously mean a lack of accumulations but certainly looks like showers should get right through to the North Sea fairly easily.

As ever, it looks pretty good for both MoffatRoss and NL to get a few cms, hopefully the rest of us can join in as well this time:

 

EURO4 suggesting 10cm for the Lothians, D+G, Moray and Inverness, and 5-10cm for most of the rest of us, but if we got half that I'd be chuffed:

[Ross B]

The GFS has clearly decided that we got off too lightly this time:

  

 

Those are sustained winds by the way, gusts easily 90-100mph. The track keeps changing so hopefully it'll weaken and end up much further north/south (long term further south probably best).

Still looks decent for snow tomorrow afternoon/evening, again more marginal the further south/west you are (and probably not quite as cold as EURO4 shows) but what falls will almost certainly be snow from about midday through to Sunday morning, so with a bit of luck, and a bit of intensity, we could well see some decent accumulations to low levels.

The consensus seems to be that temperatures for most start off around 3-4C at midday (down drastically from the 12C we could see tonight) before getting down to 1-2C. West of Glasgow may see temperatures struggle to get below 3C except in the heaviest showers and that would obviously mean a lack of accumulations but certainly looks like showers should get right through to the North Sea fairly easily.

As ever, it looks pretty good for both MoffatRoss and NL to get a few cms, hopefully the rest of us can join in as well this time:

 

EURO4 suggesting 10cm for the Lothians, D+G, Moray and Inverness, and 5-10cm for most of the rest of us, but if we got half that I'd be chuffed:

 

Typical - I'm staying in Glasgow tomorrow night which is showing as no accumulation, whereas here has a small dark purple dot 

Edited January 9, 2015 by Ross B

[Stormeh]

Nothing for Glasgow or surrounding areas, typical!

[spindrift1980]

I'm not sure I'd take those snow accumulation charts too literally - will be a bit of a nowcasting situation I think, although I would be pleasantly surprised if there's much/any accumulation for my area and the Glasgow area.

[Barton]

Seemed to get off quite lightly last night considering. One of the farm buildings round by lost their roof but other than that just wheelie bins and guttering. I woke up around 3 and it sounded pretty quiet and again around 4 and the house was shaking so I was fearing the worst!

 

I think the highest gust was around 85mph? So pretty bad but nothing like the western isles and we've definitely felt worse, damage wise at least. Just waiting to see what tomorrow brings.

 

Hope everyone's safe! finally decided to post after years of lurking.

[NUT]

I take Glasgow for most readings (as I nearest there) the highest gust in glasgow was only 61mph apparently. Seemed a lot stronger than that

[spindrift1980]

It did seem stronger last night when the wind was thumping against the side of the building and driving great walls of hail into the windows, but I was surprised by lack of damaged trees, debris on the roads etc. in urban Lanarkshire this morning.  Recent high wind events caused much more damage here (including the one in May 2011, and particularly the New Year storm a couple of years back).

Edited January 9, 2015 by spindrift1980

[Northernlights]

Just got the leccky back on after a 12 hour break. There were 3 high voltage line breaks with cables on the ground in this area according to hydro boys a very rough night here. Numerous trees in the woods down and a newly constructed turning circle for the wood lorries is now twice the size it was with a swath of trees all round knocked down. Currently dull light wind and 4.2c

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm not sure I'd take those snow accumulation charts too literally - will be a bit of a nowcasting situation I think, although I would be pleasantly surprised if there's much/any accumulation for my area and the Glasgow area.

Definitely, I certainly wouldn't rule out accumulations around Glasgow but it's probably less likely than for places further east (except Hawesy, obviously

Edited January 9, 2015 by LomondSnowstorm

[edo]

12z is an upgrade which is always nice only 20hrs away

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Met Office forecast for East Kilbride Saturday afternoon into evening is heavy snow showers. Tuesday is also heavy snow forecast..

[JoeShmoe]

Im at Easter Road sat for the Hibs game, might be fun if we get one of them showers and it settles 

[JoeShmoe]

Who fancies this next week

 

[SW Saltire]

Who fancies this next week

 

That would be unbelievably bad..... Gusts well in excess of 100mph surely? 110+....

[JoeShmoe]

That would be unbelievably bad..... Gusts well in excess of 100mph surely? 110+....

 

Im no expert but these white areas are gusts of 90mph+. They were shown in Orkney last night with the Stornaway gusts and would be going straight across the central belt at rush hour Thurs morning 

 

 

Think that might even be a Red MetO warning if that verified

Edited January 9, 2015 by JoeShmoe

[Northern Strath]

Somehow made it through last night without losing power, only to lose it a couple of hours ago.... baws, generator is on and extension plugs a go-go

edoefc I think you are definetly just behind HC as the person I wish snow upon the most, consistently devoted ramping right there people, I salute you sir

950+ft up in a Highland glen I'm luckily less prone to such will it/won't it traumas. Let's hope we all get in on the action though, and the weather gods can soothe us with snow after another kick up the ar*e from the wind

Ps. This storm worked wonders for the log shed I'll give it that. A days worth of chainsaw action clearing the mayhem

Edited January 9, 2015 by Northern Strath

[lorenzo]

Welcome along Barton, always good to have more folks posting !

 

Another outrageous system from the GFS Parallel 12z run.

 

Another couple of images from NWextra at similar time slot to Joe's above, more perfectly aligned jet interaction and stingjet potential, SLP and temps have this one deepening to approx 933mb.

 

 

 

This system has been in the modelling for 4-5 days now, consistent trend for this to develop as modelled.

 

Here is are the various solutions for 

 

GFS / GFS (P) / GEM / UKMO

 

 

Over to see what the ECM makes of things.. different..

 

 

 but does have Monday looking lively..

 

Glad there are no horror stories from last night, that Milkmaid got through a torrid storm and the thread served some use to re-assure or inform folks. Met Office getting a thorough cross examination re Red Warnings on Twitter with MSP's getting cc'd on Tweets.

 

If a development and verification like tonight's Parallel is on the cards then quite simply that is Red, no doubt whatsoever. A subsequent failure to deliver a warning of that nature would result in a loss of confidence in advisories and an e petition calling the guidance into question.

 

Onto tonight and this cold front barrels through, should be eventful again, would be nice to see a midnight fax projection. Solid cold westerly flow visible on mid-day Saturday. Mass of cold across the Atlantic visible on the Eumetsat page.

 

Hope we get some decent snow from this to cheer folks up after a hectic week.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 9, 2015 by lorenzo

[snawbaw]

Well the power went off at 12.25am last night and isn't back on yet. Had to drive 5 miles to get a mobile signal too. Something quite nice about it though.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looks like a fun evening tomorrow going by the EURO4, better snow accumulations charts for our weegie pals too:

  

 

Again, not to be taken literally but there should be enough snow falling to keep most of us interesting from midday tomorrow (or maybe even slightly earlier) onwards.

 

 

ECM has a real Braer storm look about it for Monday-Tuesday (compared to the even more severe looking system set to track further south on Thursday), Arctic westerlies from Monday midday now:

   

 

ECM manages to make the storm vanish on Thursday, which I for one would be glad of because we wouldn't actually lose the colder air from Tuesday on that setup:

 

 

 

Not sure if this is a new trend or just an outlier but interesting all the same, and it would save a few hundred million in damages too