Scotland - Weather Chat

[edo]

Happy New Year Mr Block....if the GFS P proves to be correct in its modelling it is going to get a lot of kudos

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

It's reached the point of looking away from the charts for a couple of days, unless you enjoy the rollercoaster ride. We're almost in range of the UKMO picking up Xmas, so far so good but expect some wobbles from somewhere. Pick of the charts this morning is this from the GFS Parallel, it is fairly unusual to see most of Scotland covered by pink like this for midnight on Boxing Day:

 

18th Dec GFSP 00z +216hrs Precip Type.png

very nice and looks good for you bestie neighbours in Ireland

[Guest]

Morning all,

Mild this morning at 9c under cloudy skies.

Nicely put, Catch, let's see the general theme of a cold spell between Christmas and New Year continue on the model runs and we can worry about the detail next week. GFS 12z Op run delays the real cold compared to the same run yesterday although the depth of cold is actually greater here (down to -11c 850s/ 511 dam) by a week on Saturday. Far from nailed on yet but still looking promising!

 

At that depth of cold even you may see a flake

very nice and looks good for you bestie neighbours in Ireland

 

I'm happy for all my neighbours to join in, Irish, Northern Irish and Northern English. Not the southerners though, as that would tend to mean we'll miss out up here :D

Edited December 18, 2014 by CatchMyDrift

[Ravelin]

A mild 8.0C here at the moment after an overnight low of -1.5C. I really should have kept a record of the air frosts this month as I seem to have been posting -ve figures most mornings. No sign of any frost though when I got up so last nights excursion into negative figures was probably brief.

 

Models still looking decent for after Xmas but in a way that worries me. Is it all going to start going wrong? On the other hand it might just be faulty memory but I seem to recall more occasions of a cold/white New Year than a cold/white Xmas.

[spindrift1980]

Already this winter we've had sleet, snow, hail, gales, thunder and lightning and now ice pancakes!

 

Ice 'pancakes' have been found floating on the River Dee at Birse, Aberdeenshire - they are believed to have formed when foam floating about on the water started to freeze and bump together, forming the discs.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-30530281

 

[Allyw12]

Happy New Year Mr Block....if the GFS P proves to be correct in its modelling it is going to get a lot of kudos

Ooooooooo

Edited December 18, 2014 by Allyw12

[LomondSnowstorm]

Going to be an interesting set of 12Zs, some really snowy scenarios showing up for us over the Christmas period and probably beyond. That para run is undoubtedly a best case scenario but it's certainly not too far fetched, very few models have anything other than a decent cold spell for us from Christmas Eve through to the 29th at least, and at the moment the choice is basically between dry cold (either slack northerly or HP building in), high risk marginal snowfalls or cold troughy snowmaggedon. Looks like a mix of the third and 1st for Christmas-27th with a northerly that might actually deliver proper widespread snow for all of us, then perhaps a slight relaxing of the pattern before the next low pushes in and either gives marginal or non-marginal snow potential.

[cscrim]

Why do I get the feeling that post will become very popular LS?

[November13]

It's going to be painful Sunday to late Wednesday, with the mild mush. Hopefully it will all be worth it on Christmas Eve night and the day itself. I would settle for a wee dusting, or a really hard frost. With the wind though, it will either be snow or nothing as too windy for frost next week.

 

Meantime watch the temps drop away this evening, and hopefully we will all get a wee snow shower tonight or tomorrow , before the hairdryer comes back on Sunday.

 

:smiliz19:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Why do I get the feeling that post will become very popular LS?

It is pretty shameless ramping, but at the moment at least I think it's justified.

Also, there's an MO yellow warning for snow and ice for overnight and into Saturday - on my phone so can't post the euro4 but higher parts look good for a few cm, maybe down to about 200m. More sleety to low levels but could be some falling snow at least tomorrow morning.

[snowy owl]

Spent a good part of the day checking out the charts and reading all the numerous posts . So pleased I'm off next week to keep up with all the news!! Keeping everything crossed for all of us.

[cscrim]

I will be more than happy to see you continue with your ramping for as long as possible.

[Paul]

A bunch of posts removed this evening, can we get back to the weather chat and friendly banter please..

[strathearn snow]

Met office have just updated their site, looks good for us!

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Dec 2014 to Thursday 1 Jan 2015:

Rain over central and southern parts Tuesday should move slowing southeastwards, clearing the southeast early on Christmas Eve. Colder showery conditions to the north, with snow on high ground here, following over the entire UK. The colder conditions then persist for most through Christmas Day and the following weekend with snow even to low levels at times in the north. There is a low probability of some more persistent rain crossing southern parts during the holiday weekend with a risk of snow on the leading edge. Otherwise in the following week there looks to be a gradual return to spells of wet and milder weather interspersed with colder, showery conditions. Generally windy for many throughout the period with risk of gales, these mainly in the northwest.

[edo]

I take offence at my posts being removed ...there was nothing unfriendly... You might want to pop over to the model thread where the toys are currently being ejected from the prams as the latest offerings from the models chop and change

[Northern Strath]

That wee mild interlude wasn't as harsh as I'd expected, snow cover only took a hike through today. Nice to see temps falling away again though, just had some winteriness in our last shower blown in on an increasingly chilly breeze

Nice to hear the weather looks like being more traditional compared to the last two jokers. Here's to a countrywide Alba snowfest being our main present this year

1.9C

[Hairy Celt]

Heavy wet slett at about 2C here just now so the hills will be getting another dump.  The last lot should be nicely consolidated too.

[Northernlights]

Heavy wet slett at about 2C here just now so the hills will be getting another dump.  The last lot should be nicely consolidated too.

 Same conditions here as I picked up the Christmas  ham  this evening. Still got a few small frozen snow /ice patches in the shelter of the trees down the farm road which shoud refreeze tonight.

[snawbaw]

Mauchit! Definitely the best description for tonight's weather. Just back in after driving through it, sleety rain and wind, yuk! Hope the tops are getting a re-coat.

[chemikal]

I've asked my wife to get me a real globe version of this for Christmas.

http://earth.nullschool.net/

 

She is struggling. Can anyone help? Thanks. :smiliz34:

 

 

 

[Paul]

I take offence at my posts being removed ...there was nothing unfriendly... You might want to pop over to the model thread where the toys are currently being ejected from the prams as the latest offerings from the models chop and change

 

Your post may have been fine, but it would have looked a bit out of place on it's own when the rest of the conversation you were commenting had been removed!

[Hairy Celt]

Still on the same - heavy wet sleet, 2C. Starry sky in between the showers.

 

I've asked my wife to get me a real globe version of this for Christmas.

http://earth.nullschool.net/

 

She is struggling. Can anyone help? Thanks. :smiliz34:

 

You might need to be an astronaut!

[Northern Strath]

As you'd imagine HC, what you're getting as sleet, is snow up this way. Should be white outside when I crowbar myself out of my morning pit

[NorthernRab]

Heavy wet snow here in Sneck.

Loving the GFSP this evening. Just for fun, the temps at 6PM on Hogmanay.

-20'C for the bells in Inverness anyone?

[lorenzo]

Missed the whatever happened earlier stuff as been on trains all day with the worst internet connection going.

 

Hope everything is all resolved and no further editing or deleting needed, very unusual for this thread?

 

Anyhow, for those of you who don't venture into the model thread some of the more extreme ensembles from tonights 18z.

 

Variations on the theme and all kicked off by one ridge over the Pacific and another in Greenland locale, soon to be followed by the Siberian Bear.

 

 

Result, nothing like last winter and potential game of chase the easterly after throwing out the last of the Turkey.

 

Nothing beats an Easterly cliffhanger on Netweather, it's like 24 and Homeland rolled into one..

 

EDIT - Rab ^^^            

Edited December 19, 2014 by lorenzo