Scotland - Weather Chat

[snowy owl]

Dreich this morning. Was still so dark this morning I thought I'd set the alarm wrongly!

Still showery but not too cold.

Models still have no clue where we are headed. Too much to be resolved with all these amazing Synoptics so far this November

[Northernlights]

Another dreich November day with a bit of drizzle now and again .Currently 7.2c. A very seasonal E wind  which in  my experience  over the years has heralded a change to more wintry weather at this time of the year.A completely different pattern to last autumn.

 

Cattle clearing everything we put in front of them  maybe another sign of   more wintry weather about to arrive.

Edited November 17, 2014 by Northernlights

[blitzen]

Is it just me, or is anyone else finding the MOD absolutely infuriating at the moment!  

What is the point, when time and again, we have posters analysing charts starting at day 9&10?      Surely, if models are not agreeing within at times 72hrs/96hrs, this is a pointless task?  I have really had to put a particular poster on ignore to save my sanity!

 

Sorry, bad mood this morning, rant over.

 

Anyhoo, much better day here today than the last few.   It is much fresher and for now we have lost the dampness that just went right through you.   Sun is even appearing now and again.  10.5c/E.

[Guest]

Is it just me, or is anyone else finding the MOD absolutely infuriating at the moment!  

What is the point, when time and again, we have posters analysing charts starting at day 9&10?      Surely, if models are not agreeing within at times 72hrs/96hrs, this is a pointless task?  I have really had to put a particular poster on ignore to save my sanity!

 

Sorry, bad mood this morning, rant over.

 

 

 

This is why I avoid the MOD thread Too much to try and filter through Blitzen

 

Dampness has lifted here to a certain extent too, sunny in Kelso but it was still a big foggy up at the woods when we took the dogs out earlier.

 

Edit: It's probably my imagination and a big fistful of straw clutching but I could swear on the GFS-ECM 8 to 10 Day charts that the focus of the Russian/Euro upper air positive height anomoly is shifting further north to over Scandinavia.

Edited November 18, 2014 by CatchMyDrift

[November13]

This is very much like last November to me. Kept waiting for something other than autumn dampness. Still waiting! Anyway stats from local weather station reveal 0 frosts and coldest temp 2c. Might get to December without a frost, other than the light one we had in Octoberish. Anyway someone tell me December will deliver ,  cheer me up!

[blitzen]

This is very much like last November to me. Kept waiting for something other than autumn dampness. Still waiting! Anyway stats from local weather station reveal 0 frosts and coldest temp 2c. Might get to December without a frost, other than the light one we had in Octoberish. Anyway someone tell me December will deliver ,  cheer me up!

 

I was really encouraged by Snow King's post the other day when he referred to the fact that he expected this present scenario to unfold.   It would probably be mid/latish December before things fall properly into place.   Given that we are only  three weeks or so away, he was right I think to state that patience is required.   He, and a handful of other posters who are very knowledgeable appear also to be thinking along these lines.   I don't dismiss their opinions readily and certainly not from (as some do) a starting point of 9/10 days away!

 

So,  hopefully, something for you to hang onto November 13th.   

 

ETA:  Read post 199 in the In Depth Model thread where he has just reinforced his thoughts.  

Edited November 19, 2014 by Blitzen

[Guest]

A few photos from the archive, 18th November 2005:

 

 

Does that win the random post of the day prize?

 

 

[Ravelin]

I hate easterlies! Well ones like this as I'm currently sat in the car waiting on daughter and its peeing it down. Lots of very heavy showers barrelling through all morning.

Now drop the temp by 10C and I'd be a whole lot happier.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Quite a contrast between the ECM and GFS.

 

00Z London surface T ensembles:

 

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon peeps! Another sunny, crisp Autumn day here. How lucky are we here in Skye? I believe that other parts of Auld Scotia and a wee bit on the damp side. So unusual for us to have the dry weather....not that I'm complaining.   

[blitzen]

Hope we get some snow this winter.   We have a couple of dogs who just love it!   Well one does as the other one is too young and hasn't  seen any yet!   Sure he'll be exactly the same though!

 

This is our latest addition.   His name is Fonzi and he's an American Cocker Spaniel.   He is also a little sod!

[SW Saltire]

Quite a contrast between the ECM and GFS.

00Z London surface T ensembles:

Yes, SS.

Perhaps, this particular scenario highlights the bias of the models concerned.

The GFS usually emphasised the Atlantic strength (i'm being tactful here), whereas, even the king model - the ECM has shown (last winter particularly) a bias to increase amplification of the patten and allowing greate opportunity for cold winds to blow in with the Atlantic all over the place.

However, it must be noted that an Atlantic return was modelled a few days ago as all the models had underestimated the block. So this lends support to the ECM's colder, lows on a NW/SE trajectory allowing progressively colder air to get in the mix as the days continue to shorten...

I still feel we have a few weeks to go before anything major though

Edited November 19, 2014 by SW Saltire

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yes, SS.

Perhaps, this particular scenario highlights the bias of the models concerned.

The GFS usually emphasised the Atlantic strength (i'm being tactful here), whereas, even the king model - the ECM has shown (last winter particularly) a bias to increase amplification of the patten and allowing greate opportunity for cold winds to blow in with the Atlantic all over the place.

However, it must be noted that an Atlantic return was modelled a few days ago as all the models had underestimated the block. So this lends support to the ECM's colder, lows on a NW/SE trajectory allowing progressively colder air to get in the mix as the days continue to shorten...

I still feel we have a few weeks to go before anything major though

Sounds about right, I think blocking will hang on to the east for some time, although probably backing a bit further east by month's end, before at some point, when the next major vortex disruption occurs (probably mid-late December), retrogressing fully towards Iceland/Greenland, at least for a time.

The MJO (ramping up from 'neutral to phase 2 and into phase 3) certainly seems to be pointing towards a cool, unsettled setup for early December, which purely from the analogues for similar winters always looked likely for much of December anyway. This is the high amplitude phase 2 MJO analogue for November :

and for December:

You can easily see the progression from the current setup - the pattern gets shunted eastwards with the trough disrupting southeast into the continent as it comes up against the block. This looks fairly similar to the start of December 1976, one of our analogue winters, which was a cold and snowy month overall, but trying to judge temperatures from these types of setup is very difficult given it's highly dependent on whether we can get enough amplification and in the right place to bring in a decent Polar Maritime feed into the mix. However, I do think there's a fair chance that this will bring us our first snowfall of the winter, though probably fairly transient, and a relatively recent example of what we could end up with if things go reasonably well is early December 2011, when we had a decent cold spell from the northwest, although it could end up just horribly wet, like December 2012 or, dare I say it, last winter.

Phase 3 is where things get more interesting:

In our locale a clear signal for the high to back west once again, with likely drier, frostier conditions mid month, but if and when the next -AO phase kicks in this would put us in a very favourable position to capitalise on it and allow blocking to develop in a better area for us by the end of December.

Edited November 19, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Northernlights]

Anyone here think this is pretty significant  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30097648

 

Perhaps we are not alone!

[snawbaw]

 

Some of this please for Christmas/ New Year - as long as we can still get to the slopes though...too much to ask?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Interesting: https://twitter.com/EssexWeather/status/535160955387523072

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs-para/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m-hd/3h.htm

Taking a look at the week ahead on the high resolution new GFS it certainly doesn't look particularly mild, with temperatures close to or slightly below average over the period as a whole:

ECM paints a similar picture, maxima well down into single figures next week with occasional frost (although what cloudier nights (I think) mean that frosts aren't as prevalent as on the GFS http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Scotland/Edinburgh/long.html ) 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

 

 

Some of this please for Christmas/ New Year - as long as we can still get to the slopes though...too much to ask?

 

Nuts in the states right now.

 

Lake effect snow coming in...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-30118783

 

 

1.5 m in buffalo

 

[lorenzo]

Kilted thread Buffalo expedition required.. amazing image this one...

 

Not jealous at all, much...

 

 

#lakeeffectsnow has also been trending some surreal pics.

[snawbaw]

Kilted thread Buffalo expedition required.. amazing image this one...

 

Not jealous at all, much...

 

Capture.PNG

 

#lakeeffectsnow has also been trending some surreal pics.

 

 

Nuts in the states right now.

 

Lake effect snow coming in...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-30118783

 

 

1.5 m in buffalo

 

Fabulous pictures, particularly the aerial shot.  Please tell me there have been incidences of lake effect snow in the Great Glen? 

[Ravelin]

I don't know how anyone can bear to look at the pics from the US, jealous just does not adequately cover it.

Temp dropped off markedly this evening and currently sat at 1.8C.

[Guest]

I don't know how anyone can bear to look at the pics from the US, jealous just does not adequately cover it.

Temp dropped off markedly this evening and currently sat at 1.8C.

 

Sick, with multiple meanings.

 

Nowt much doing over here for weather, might get hit with a secondary low at some point but nothing much else.

[blitzen]

Here's some more.....read it and weep!

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/buffalo-6-feet-of-snow-tuesday-photos-2014-11?r=US

[Big Innes Madori]

Here's some more.....read it and weep!

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/buffalo-6-feet-of-snow-tuesday-photos-2014-11?r=US

Aye Blitzy

Ah hope that this disnae leave us wi a US Effect winter like last year!

Big Innes

[skifreak]

Fabulous pictures, particularly the aerial shot.  Please tell me there have been incidences of lake effect snow in the Great Glen? 

What happened with the blizzard on Kintyre and the isle of Arran in March 2013 was basically 'Lake effect' snow, though in that case the lake was the sea between the the main part of Scotland and the Kintyre peninsula. Very cold air coming off the land on a stiff Easterly... *Boom* . The NMM picked it up beautifully, I recall looking at it mid-afternoon and being like   because it was predicting so much snow over the Kintyre peninsula, but there was no weather warnings or anything! But it was bang on the money!

 

Hydro Electric trying to restore power on Arran:

Edited November 20, 2014 by skifreak