The Midlands - Weather Chat

[Arctic Hare]

A few people the Wales thread now reporting sleetiness in places like Tredegar and Downlais. So something is happening!

[mackerel sky]

This reminds me a little of three similar setups in February 2009. The first two were all snow events, the third and final one was a rain to snow event - despite some heavy rain during the day it didn't really thaw much of the lying snow (there was quite a lot of it from the first two events) - then it readily turned to snow after dark and continued most of the night, dropping about 6 inches. But it wasn't the nice snow that had fallen previously. Very wet stuff. That then froze.

 

Temperature here is 2.7C with a dew point of 1.2. Overcast, feels damp. 

 

We have done well out of similar setups here before, where the triple point passes through will dictate - 50 miles north of that will be the sweet spot as the uppers won't get higher than say -2C/-3C which is enough to support an all snow event. Not if you live a big town or city mind, but I think somewhere like Rutland, lets say Uppingham at about 170m elevation will get the biggest dump.

 

Cheers!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This reminds me a little of three similar setups in February 2009. The first two were all snow events, the third and final one was a rain to snow event - despite some heavy rain during the day it didn't really thaw much of the lying snow (there was quite a lot of it from the first two events) - then it readily turned to snow after dark and continued most of the night, dropping about 6 inches. But it wasn't the nice snow that had fallen previously. Very wet stuff. That then froze.

 

Temperature here is 2.7C with a dew point of 1.2. Overcast, feels damp. 

 

We have done well out of similar setups here before, where the triple point passes through will dictate - 50 miles north of that will be the sweet spot as the uppers won't get higher than say -2C/-3C which is enough to support an all snow event. Not if you live a big town or city mind, but I think somewhere like Rutland, lets say Uppingham at about 170m elevation will get the biggest dump.

 

Cheers!

 

don't remind me, Feb 9th 2009, just never turned properly to snow, struggled, all i had was sleet for last hour of front

[conor123]

Heavy rain here now and 4.3c, at this rate the front will of cleared by 6pm and nothings following! the wraparound stays well ENE of here.

Seems to be even further north than GFS was saying, heaviest stuff heading for NW England!!!!!!

Edited December 26, 2014 by conor123

[snowangel32]

Heavy rain here thought it was going to start as snow so i would say anywhere south of brum will struggle

[marksp]

things moving along nicely now, dew point fallen from 1.1 to 0.3 in last 30mins temp is 2.9

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Heavy rain here thought it was going to start as snow so i would say anywhere south of brum will struggle

 

temps miles too high to start as snow, will struggle to turn on low levels I feel

[Fozfoster]

Started raining.

Met Office 1 Hopes 0.

[mackerel sky]

don't remind me, Feb 9th 2009, just never turned properly to snow, struggled, all i had was sleet for last hour of front

Don't remind me of just before Christmas 2010! The front stalled about 10 miles to the south and Bedford got 10 inches of snow, we struggled to get 2 cm! That was a last minute 'southern adjustment' of the models. It really is fine margins - I think alot of people will get some snow later on in the night, but albeit lighter stuff. For the action you really need to be in the perfect spot. And that could be anywhere in the East Midlands. We might just get heavy rain then some slush later on. Dewpoints look okay from observation mind, mine has dropped to 1.1C - I only changed the batteries in the wireless sensor from my weather station today - didn't even bother with it last year. Bloody old ones had leaked - I thought batteries stopped leaking years ago. All my toys from the 80s were usually knackered. Operation, the board game when you got it out after 3 months of not playing usually had battery acid leaking everywhere.

 

Anyway I digress.

[Will Padz]

Met office forecast for around here has changed to light snow and heavier snow later.... Bring it.....

[Serendipity]

There was never any suggestion it would start as snow, I am not sure why people thought that. The snow risk was in the evening with rain starting this pm and turning wintry later. FAR too early for any panic yet.

[Nick L]

I see the BBC bashing has started already...

 

Meanwhile, light rain has started.

[The Wolf]

Oh no. Its raining here!

[Staffordshire]

The front is seemingly

More North than we expected and also looking thinner, maybe clearing us by 10pm? Or is it meant to start pivoting soon?

[Nick L]

The front is seemingly

More North than we expected and also looking thinner, maybe clearing us by 10pm? Or is it meant to start pivoting soon?

 

Seems about on track to me. It'll also start to pivot around the low.

[snowangel32]

Rain really getting going now and still temps way to high i really think this was the wrong forecast don't blame the met cuz it was marginal. And could have gone either way

[Snowyowl9]

bbc wrong then, no way snow from the offset, where is the cold air? 3.6C here, miles too warm for snow, it''s meant to turn to snow tonight, temps should drop as winds turn NE

That was the first thing I saw on tv this morning,showed white into south wales.

Anyway temp has dropped to 2.8c S/SE  wind and sleet/wet snow now.

But this is high ground.

[Gord]

Was always meant to be a rain to snow event wasn't it? The rain has even arrived on time.

[mackerel sky]

A good sign here I would say, that we are meant to be under light precipitation and nothing is falling. Dewpoint of 1.2C. Usually this sort of thing bodes well.

[Harsh Climate]

The heavy stuff out west is currently about 30 miles further north than originally progged, May couse the south/central midlands to get sleet/rain instead of snow. While us in yorkshire/north midlands get the snow ; )

[Fozfoster]

Started raining.

Met Office 1 Hopes 0.

Its tongue in cheek!! its my Boxing day match!!

[Nick L]

Rain really getting going now and still temps way to high i really think this was the wrong forecast don't blame the met cuz it was marginal. And could have gone either way

 

Euro4 had temps getting up to 4-5c quite widely, before falling rapidly this afternoon, around freezing by 6pm for the north Mids. There is a very sharp north-south temperature gradient, so expect large temperature variations over small distances.

 

And as mentioned above, we are currently in rather dry air so not all the precip is reaching the ground at the moment. That's a good thing while it's still rain! With the still conditions, hopefully evaporative cooling will give us a hand.

Edited December 26, 2014 by Nick L

[conor123]

Weirdly seems to be reports of sleet/wet snow from South Wales in the mild sector but rain further north.

[syed2878]

hi every1. its started raining here atm looking earllyer at the met office app they have sleet from 1800h and from 1900 it's heavy snow upuntill 0100am and then it's lite snow. have there been any change to that forecast folks?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Weirdly seems to be reports of sleet/wet snow from South Wales in the mild sector but rain further north.

 

heavier precip maybe? bbc gives me heavy snow for a time tonight, but tomorrow is looking like a shocker washout, if low levels are lucky enough for snow, won't last through tomorrow