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Why do you think that? 

 

Because according to the weather forecast this morning on Radio Nottingham what was yesterday being forecast as decent snow event is now forecast as just rain and a weakening affair at that

Edited by Ryan05
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A cold clear day, With everything still frozen. A few shots while out walking earlier. Temp 0.4c Dp -1.9c WC 0.2c

METO should have followed the map 

Great Longstone at 11.00am this morning pretty difficult journey, what with fog and blowing snow very tricky approx. 20 to 25cms   also plenty of vids from Beeley Moor most are at 250m to 350mtrs

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MetO must know something we don't. I guess their UKV / METO model is coming to a very different conclusion to the GFS. Waiting for an update from Ian F.

Warnings will be out by this evening they are making sure in this fluid situation.

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Any snow event on GFS has moved further north and west.

 

It's a downgrade for most of us.

Most of who?   if by that you mean the midlands  then it most certainly isnt a downgrade

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Any snow event on GFS has moved further north and west.

It's a downgrade for most of us.

Don know what models you are looking at infact the latest 06z increases more of the midlands as a whole with snow. Look at some of the snow risk charts upgrade in my eyes

It does worry me though that the beeb are having none of it.

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Edited by snowangel32
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Only slightly negative is it looks like -4 to -5 850 temps win out come about 3am Wednesday which could cause marginality. Could do with them being 2c colder

According to the Model thread the latest thing they have heard out of the MetO this morning is they think it's going to be an all rain event apart from high hills which will see snow. They basically disagree entirely with the GFS.

You'd be surprised at what 850's of -3 and -4 can deliver. If the ground temps are cold enough and you have a bit of elevation on your side, it could be an all snow affair.

I don't know why but this one event has always been stuck in my mind. Can't remember exactly what year it was, possibly 2008-2009. I remember the Birmingham area got pasted with about 3-4 inches of snow on a Sunday evening and Leicester saw a mix of sleet/wet snow that didn't settle.

At the time, I was astonished because I was quite new to the models and at that time, I thought that snow wouldn't fall unless the 850's were -5 or lower. Well that evening, they were around -2! So if 3-4 inches can fall around Birmingham with those conditions, uppers of -4 aren't too worrying.

The good thing is, the PPN arrives at prime time for snow lovers, overnight! Always seems to be more marginal if it arrives during the day.

Edited by andy_leics22
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Metoffice showing mostly sleet at best for Birmingham Airport as an example for Tues night/Wednesday

 

Metoffice showing mostly sleet at best for Birmingham Airport as an example for Tues night/Wednesday

They change like the wind   but if you take the 06 gfs  run   then on that run alone its a upgrade,  however still no warnings from the met  

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You'd be surprised at what 850's of -3 and -4 can deliver. If the ground temps are cold enough and you have a bit of elevation on your side, it could be an all snow affair.

I don't know why but this one event has always been stuck in my mind. Can't remember exactly what year it was, possibly 2008-2009. I remember the Birmingham area got pasted with about 3-4 inches of snow on a Sunday evening and Leicester saw a mix of sleet/wet snow that didn't settle.

At the time, I was astonished because I was quite new to the models and at that time, I thought that snow wouldn't fall unless the 850's were -5 or lower. Well that evening, they were around -2! So if 3-4 inches can fall around Birmingham with those conditions, uppers of -4 aren't too worrying.

The good thing is, the PPN arrives at prime time for snow lovers, overnight! Always seems to be more marginal if it arrives during the day.

 

 

 

Yeah that's true. But generally speaking, colder the better.

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They change like the wind   but if you take the 06 gfs  run   then on that run alone its a upgrade,  however still no warnings from the met  

I don't think the new GFS is very accurate, as when it was the Parallel run it always showed the coldest/snowfests that never happened.

The Metoffice do not use GFS.

 

I do hope there will be some snow overnight Tuesday, but doubt it will be a snowfest. Maybe a couple of centimeters.

Edited by 'ColdIsBest'
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I don't think the new GFS is very accurate, as when it was the Parallel run it always showed the coldest/snowfests that never happened.

The Metoffice do not use GFS.

Oh im sure they do  not in isolation but they must surely use it as a guide along with the many other models   however  lets just wait and see what happens  as i said no warnings out from the met yet  so at the moment who knows what will happen  :)

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Yeah that's true. But generally speaking, colder the better.

Yeah definitely. It's always better for snow prospects to have the 850's more towards -7 and below.

I really think tomorrow night could surprise a few people though! From looking at the 06z run, if areas above 200m don't see an all snow event from this, I will be very surprised. Low ground is a bit of a worry but people on low ground are by no means out of it.

If this was arriving in the Midlands slap bang in the middle of the day, it would be far more marginal. The fact it's arriving late evening/overnight is far better for chances of snow.

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I don't think the new GFS is very accurate, as when it was the Parallel run it always showed the coldest/snowfests that never happened.

The Metoffice do not use GFS.

 

I do hope there will be some snow overnight Tuesday, but doubt it will be a snowfest. Maybe a couple of centimeters.

I find that the GFS is usually very accurate within a t48 timeframe, more so than the MET and Beeb forecasts.

So many times, I have seen a BBC forecast for a snow event be completely wrong. I can count at least 4 times when they predicted 5-10cm to hit Leicester and it arrived as rain and sleet right from the start! Before those events, the GFS was rubbishing what the BBC forecasts were saying and they turned out to be correct. The BBC get their info from the Met Office, so whatever model runs the Met were going by at those times, they weren't too accurate!

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Yeah definitely. It's always better for snow prospects to have the 850's more towards -7 and below.

I really think tomorrow night could surprise a few people though! From looking at the 06z run, if areas above 200m don't see an all snow event from this, I will be very surprised. Low ground is a bit of a worry but people on low ground are by no means out of it.

If this was arriving in the Midlands slap bang in the middle of the day, it would be far more marginal. The fact it's arriving late evening/overnight is far better for chances of snow.

 

Yup. I just have a bad feeling the GFS 06z has got it all wrong. EURO4 is showing a weaker band of PPN I believe. Not sure what MetO is showing. 

 

Interested to see the 06z NMM too but not updated yet.

 

edit:

 

Actually 06z NMM4 is out... it's not good.

Edited by kmanmx
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Yup. I just have a bad feeling the GFS 06z has got it all wrong. EURO4 is showing a weaker band of PPN I believe. Not sure what MetO is showing. 

 

Interested to see the 06z NMM too but not updated yet.

 

edit:

 

Actually 06z NMM4 is out... it's not good.

The NMM should stand for 'never mind mate'
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The NMM should stand for 'never mind mate'

 

Well to be fair I used it the other day on Saturday. And even at T3 it looked totally different to the radar. So I don't really trust it.

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Now for good news latest nmm arw 8km is going for a moderate to heavy snowfall band across the central to eastern midlands! ! Same as the last update! ! But the other nmm model which kmanmx has posted has it slightly further west!! This is gona go down to the wire!!

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Now for good news latest nmm arw 8km is going for a moderate to heavy snowfall band across the central to eastern midlands! ! Same as the last update! ! But the other nmm model which kmanmx has posted has it slightly further west!! This is gona go down to the wire!!

 

According to NMM4 we get a dusting of very light showers, at best.

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When was a snow event ever not marginal in the midlands though :p I can't remember the last time I had lots of snow that was a guarantee with -8c uppers and below zero ground and air temps. 

 

Being on the right side of marginality can often give great snowfalls.

Edited by kmanmx
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I think its safe to say that somewhere will no doubt be in for a pleasant surprice tomorrow however its looking like rain/sleet for the most of us now. Just the way it goes.

 

Plenty of winter left and having been spoilt on boxing day with lying snow till New Years Eve us in Notts ain't done too bad so far this season

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