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A cold clear day, With everything still frozen. A few shots while out walking earlier. Temp 0.4c Dp -1.9c WC 0.2c

METO should have followed the map 

Great Longstone at 11.00am this morning pretty difficult journey, what with fog and blowing snow very tricky approx. 20 to 25cms   also plenty of vids from Beeley Moor most are at 250m to 350mtrs

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Thers no frikkin downgrades! ! Midlands looks like copping it!! Nothing has changed from last nights 18z! ! And I've just confirmed with steve murr and he agrees aswell and says the sweet spot could get 10cms which is pretty good if you ask me!!

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Warn all midlanders do not go in mod thread today i can promise you after this morning charts, toys will be flying huge downgrades tues and wed snow is now on a knife edge slightly in favour of rain unless you live on a mountain. And medium to log term ouch dosent look good. Pray for changes later or this could be a washout and not a whiteout.

Look at the difference the top is todays 00z just look at the uppers that have disappeared from yesterday pub run uppers vanished overnight

That's wrong ! https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82300-model-output-discussion-16th-jan-12z-onwards-smile-while-you-post/page-43#entry3129506

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Thers no frikkin downgrades! ! Midlands looks like copping it!! Nothing has changed from last nights 18z! ! And I've just confirmed with steve murr and he agrees aswell and says the sweet spot could get 10cms which is pretty good if you ask me!!

INDEED! No down-grades.... Don't read too many posts in the Mod thread your taking them as gospel, the WRF NMM is not having any of it either  :p

 

nmm-1-47-0_tyv2.png

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?map=0

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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well still looking complicated for the midlands, national and regional forecasts mention mostly rain,, hill snow etc.

SM map puts me in the middle of two overlapping sweet spots, its gonner snow here, 200mts asl and all that, could be another boxing day event.

Met o going for 8hours snow for Peak District, but I thinks there's going to be a lot of radar, and temperature monitoring going on.

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I don't know why people think the 00z is a total failure. It's a slight downgrade on the 18z (Which is nearly always the case, 00z is rarely an upgrade on 18z from my experience), it's now a bit more marginal and intensity is a little less. But it's still got the Midlands down for quite a bit of snow. We are still in the sweet spot.

 

Hoping for another upgrade on the 06z that removes some of the marginality.

 

edit:

 

Another positive is we should expect the track/location to be fairly well nailed now. Id be surprised to see a large change in location of main band of PPN. Anything can happen though I guess.

Edited by kmanmx
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I hope so i am not going to argue with steve m he is far more knowledgeable than me just those charts didnt look good to me.

Edited by snowangel32
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Right in this next run we are looking for heavier band of snow and no further eastward movements otherwise theres always a chance it turns into a wintry mix!! And also obviously an extension to the cold spell!!

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Personally I don't think the issue is whether we still see snow, I think pretty much all of us will see the white stuff at some point.  The question is whether it will accumulate, especially if it arrives in band of sleet/rain that turns to snow (if that's true in your location).  Also the reverse, snow turning to rain as the front moves.

 

I think most forecasters will be struggling with this which is probably why I don't believe there is a weather warning out.  It will be interesting to see if one is issued later on today.

Edited by dudleyweather1
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06z looks like an upgrade in terms of snow amount for midlands. Midlands still the sweetspot too. Perhaps slightly less marginal if i'm looking at it right...

 

Not sure if the 850 temps are much better, still looking. They look 'different', better or not i'm not sure. Need an expert to weigh in!

Edited by kmanmx
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And as expected no westward or eastward movement!! Midlands bang on the sweet spot!!

 

 

Snow depths look quite a lot better....

 

Do you think it looks less marginal than the 00z ? Or am I just imagining it :p

Edited by kmanmx
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And as expected no westward or eastward movement!! Midlands bang on the sweet spot!!

Slight westward movement. Wouldnt want to be any further east than leics imo as you could miss out

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Snow depths look quite a lot better....

 

Do you think it looks less marginal than the 00z ? Or am I just imagining it :p

defo much better! ! Also if you compare the 42 hour chart to the 48 hour one from 00z the low is digging further south!!
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Snow depths going by gfs 06z

 

Looks good for Leicester. Could do with the dark green spot shifting 20 miles south east though for absolute Leicester perfection. Then again that kind of detail will never be accurate even at T6. That'll just come down to nowcasting. 

Edited by kmanmx
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10-24cm nw to midlands according to gfs....

 

Muahahhahaha. Incredible. If that's accurate, i'll cry happy tears come Wednesday. 

 

 

Lets see what 12z brings. If we start to see the same kind of accumulations consistently on the 12z and 18z then we are in for a lot of fun. 

 

 

Within range for METOs UKV model too so i'd expect warnings to go out today.

Edited by kmanmx
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