The Midlands - Weather Chat

[fizz511]

Blimey - I make that 16 cm if this comes off! (18 if you count Tuesday night...)

Edited January 18, 2015 by fizz511

[weirpig]

I think there's a few trying to turn the model thread into the Daily Express! I seriously doubt that there will be enough snow/rain to make any meaningful amount away from hills. The met don't seem concerned & that's good enough for me.

How do you know the met arent concerned??    ian f  earlier in the model thread  said the reason why any warnings still havnt been issued was due to model variations and that they are unable to get a consistant signal.  He also alluded to warnings being issued tommorow  depending on the mornings runs    i dont think by any means its going to be a snow fest  but im sure 10cm is achievable.

[fizz511]

Evening All, just popped in from the South-West thread,

 

I'm going to be working in Warwick this week (Mon-Fri), any views on the potential of any snow for Warwick

 

Cheers

Hard to say, as more often than not any potential for us gets downgraded last minute, but it's looking good at the moment!

[The Wolf]

Its great seeing Steve M's maps but this will go

right down to the wire.

It will be all change tomorrow. You can almost

guarantee it!

Praying there wont be huge downgrades.

[davehsug]

weirpig, on 18 Jan 2015 - 23:50, said:weirpig, on 18 Jan 2015 - 23:50, said:

How do you know the met arent concerned??    ian f  earlier in the model thread  said the reason why any warnings still havnt been issued was due to model variations and that they are unable to get a consistant signal.  He also alluded to warnings being issued tommorow  depending on the mornings runs    i dont think by any means its going to be a snow fest  but im sure 10cm is achievable.

Yes & if any of the models suggested anything serious, they would at least mention it. Neither weekly forecast today made anything of it & even mentioned that the fronts were very weak & dieing out. People will believe who & what they want to believe I suppose

Edited January 18, 2015 by davehsug

[Arctic Hare]

Still snowing here, and now with proper medium-sized flakes. Still light, but there's a dusting on the grass now. It's actually not that far off what we had on Tuesday night. Edit 12.03am: now easing off. Just a few flakes around. Thinnest of thin coverings on the road, which will be a pain for drivers tomorrow morning assuming it clears and freezes overnight.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Arctic Hare

[kmanmx]

Good boost of confidence if Steve Murr is saying mids is a good spot. Though it's still two days away, so a lot could change. Very well could be a "map 3".

Exciting stuff though ! Looking forward to seeing what the 00z and 06z brings. I might ignore the 00z as it always seems to downgrade the 18z  

[slinky1989]

Snowing outside! From seemingly absolutely nowhere!

 

Seems that the shower formed roughly over Wolverhampton just before 11pm and has slowly made it's way south!

 

Lovely surprise as it's relatively heavy too

 

Light covering on everything now.

[Soma]

Snow here right now! Nice little surprise!

[davehsug]

Very strange inland in winter. Must be some minor disturbance or trough developed.

[Gord]

The 5 day forecast on radio 4 just now wasn't too inspiring. Keeping up with the slight covering on higher ground theme. Had Wednesday as drier and brighter in the west.

However, he did say the day to day details might change, particularly later in the week.

Really not sure what to make of things this morning. Some fantastic charts but the forecasts just aren't buying it.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Gord

[Shane Wheeldon]

Nowt here in north Telford since boxing day! The only thing this cold spell is delivering is a high gas bill lol!!

[snowangel32]

Downgrade on the met now has a snow to rain then sleety mix also cant belive nothing has been said on beeb either. Light dusting here must have had a snow shower overnight, currently -3 brrrrr

[conor123]

Hoping for some last minute westward shifts today, 00z no good, just sleet/rain and only lasts about an hour.

[Supacell]

The GFS 00z is a great run for snow with a 24 hour snowfall for some on Tues night/Wednesday and then another snow event on Friday. However, the NMM 00z is not quite so good with the two "snow" events actually producing more of a rain/sleet/snow mix away from high ground. If NMM is on the money (still plenty of time for changes/upgrades/downgrades) then I do not see big accumulations away from high ground. If GFS is correct then some of us could be looking at the best snowfall since March 2013, although that wouldn't be hard considering last winters complete lack of snow.

 

Either way, if you live above about 200m it will be of snow and you can probably expect to be getting a snow pasting through this week. Maybe I should move to Buxton for a few days

 

GFS snow accumulation by the end of the week, most of this falls on Wednesday then sticks around:

 

Edited January 19, 2015 by Supacell

[snowangel32]

Warn all midlanders do not go in mod thread today i can promise you after this morning charts, toys will be flying huge downgrades tues and wed snow is now on a knife edge slightly in favour of rain unless you live on a mountain. And medium to log term ouch dosent look good. Pray for changes later or this could be a washout and not a whiteout.

Look at the difference the top is todays 00z just look at the uppers that have disappeared from yesterday pub run uppers vanished overnight

Edited January 19, 2015 by snowangel32

[Summer of 95]

Not a flake here overnight. At least cleared so we have a frost, was threatening a total damp squib.

[Fozfoster]

Met Office going for heavy snow for me on Wednesday !! We shall see.

[DIS1970]

Clear & frosty, -4.3c.

[Essan]

Whichever model you look at, it would appear that Evesham is perfectly placed to get nothing but rain this week .....   Oh well, we did have a few flakes and hopefully someone willmanage a decent covering.  Always next year ....

[snowangel32]

Whichever model you look at, it would appear that Evesham is perfectly placed to get nothing but rain this week .....   Oh well, we did have a few flakes and hopefully someone willmanage a decent covering.  Always next year ....

Your not out of the running yet it wouldnt take much to get snow there. No one knows yet where the snowline will be. Dont lose hope.

[TheIceManCometh]

Stunned to see all forecasts (MO, NW, TWO, XC) all broadly agreeing on heavy snow overnight Tues then snow all through Weds. Surely something has to give? We're the capital city of snow-fail!

Edited January 19, 2015 by TheIceManCometh

[Serendipity]

Whichever model you look at, it would appear that Evesham is perfectly placed to get nothing but rain this week .....   Oh well, we did have a few flakes and hopefully someone willmanage a decent covering.  Always next year ....

 

I feel your pain! Our elevation always makes things so marginal and in my experience, when models are still chopping and changing so close to the event by such a large margin, things rarely fall on the right side of the line for us here.

[MKN]

So the radar watching can commence... Ok maybe touch early but its in sight

[The Wolf]

Huge downgrades yet again?

You couldn't make it up!