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Paul

By Paul
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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Deja vu looking at the models who is ready for round two lol.

Defo one to keep an :shok: on for Weds (HEAVY SNOW)... 850's and DP'S are looking good :good: Now't marginal about them, SNOW SNOW SNOW all the way :cold:

Obviously all on the 06z GFS output, I'm sure it will change on the next run in some way but as i said "one to keep an eye on".

 

Who is ready for round two lol..... Round ten and i would still be here with the same enthusiasm  :yahoo: 

 

15012812_2_2406.gif15012818_2_2406.gif15012812_2_2406.gif

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

Looks like the GFS is coming up with its latest 'Tuts take charts'. I've already braced myself for the downgrades and ordered a fresh supply of Xanax :-D

 

If we get another let down from that model, I think quite a few people on here will have started to wonder whether the GFS' recent upgrade was for the better?

GFS had an upgrade?! It's still churning out the same unpredictable crap at medium/long range that it did a few years ago!
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fizz511 Enthusiast

fizz511

Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull. 122m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull. 122m ASL
Posted

Defo one to keep an :shok: on for Weds (HEAVY SNOW)... 850's and DP'S are looking good :good: Now't marginal about them, SNOW SNOW SNOW all the way :cold:

Obviously all on the 06z GFS output, I'm sure it will change on the next run in some way but as i said "one to keep an eye on".

 

Who is ready for round two lol..... Round ten and i would still be here with the same enthusiasm  :yahoo: 

 

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Keep us posted Dancer, I darent look myself...

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted

Defo one to keep an :shok: on for Weds (HEAVY SNOW)... 850's and DP'S are looking good :good: Now't marginal about them, SNOW SNOW SNOW all the way :cold:

Obviously all on the 06z GFS output, I'm sure it will change on the next run in some way but as i said "one to keep an eye on".

 

Who is ready for round two lol..... Round ten and i would still be here with the same enthusiasm  :yahoo: 

 

15012812_2_2406.gif15012818_2_2406.gif15012812_2_2406.gif

Yh Dancer and those charts are also not a million miles away now they are in the semi reliable if there is such a thing loving those uppers.

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picog Aficionado

picog

Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
Posted (edited)

Increasing speculation about SNOW on Wednesday, especially those in the firing line from the Cheshire gap effect.

Great charts Dancer. Let's hope they're not too la-la land!

Edited by picog
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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
Posted

Way off topic......... But LETS ALL LAUGH AT CHELSEA.....Well done Bradford...

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)

La-La Land!... well said 'Picog' :hi: ......That's been the Winter so far in the Midlands this year and the La-La winter continues !!!!

As for Weds more like back edge snow but at this stage you never know ? after weds and onto the weekend a very wintry set up with the 850's around the -5's to -7's :cold:

and from weds the 528 dam line always stays well south of the UK :D I'm sure with these northerly set ups it's wide open for SNOW  :cold: but who get's it the story continues :)

 

All sorts happening by tea-time Weds and with a strong wind chill...... Brrrrrr :cold:

 

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Edited by Dancerwithwings
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Still cannot see much chance for snow away from high ground, Wed may produce a bit of back edge snow, but the showery flow looks dry as wind too W'ly, thurs the uppers get a bit warmer, then Friday much warmer uppers moving down

 

still chance for upgrades, models need to upgrade uppers, cos Wed night only currently shows cold enough setup for snow

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted (edited)

I have to admit, even though i'm liking the fact that the models are consistently showing a cold spell for the end of nxt week, it's not exciting me much.

Northerly's usually deliver bugger all snow for the Midlands. The scenario we need is for the Northerly to turn into an Easterly afterwards, that would be best for us I think.

Edited by andy_leics22
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

I have to admit, even though i'm liking the fact that the models are consistently showing a cold spell for the end of nxt week, it's not exciting me much.

Northerly's usually deliver bugger all snow for the Midlands. The scenario we need is for the Northerly to turn into an Easterly afterwards, that would be best for us I think.

 

they can deliver if cold enough, used to get loads of cheshire Gap snow, in good old days, ECM uppers are better for thursday, low levels would see snow off that if of course any ppn about

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

they can deliver if cold enough, used to get loads of cheshire Gap snow, in good old days, ECM uppers are better for thursday, low levels would see snow off that if of course any ppn about

For that to happen though you need a North Westerly. Straight Northerly's are usually pants.

Cheshire gap showers can produce some good streamers but the wind direction has to be spot on for your location or you could see them miss you. When I lived up in Leicester, Cheshire gap showers often missed us to our West by about 30-40 miles. Occasionally we would be in a good position but there had to be a W/NW wind direction for that to happen. West Midlands does normally do well from a N/NW though.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

For that to happen though you need a North Westerly. Straight Northerly's are usually pants.

Cheshire gap showers can produce some good streamers but the wind direction has to be spot on for your location or you could see them miss you. When I lived up in Leicester, Cheshire gap showers often missed us to our West by about 30-40 miles. Occasionally we would be in a good position but there had to be a W/NW wind direction for that to happen. West Midlands does normally do well from a N/NW though.

 

chance of it being NNW, but does have to be just right, winds often too westerly, so snow goes to Stockport, ESE through derbyshire

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

chance of it being NNW, but does have to be just right, winds often too westerly, so snow goes to Stockport, ESE through derbyshire

Yep, I think that's the issue I have with Cheshire gap showers/streamers. They are too hit and miss and you have to pray that the wind direction is bang on. It's so frustrating to watch the radar and see a line of showers missing your location by 10-20 miles all day!

Still, i'd take a Cheshire gap scenario over zonal Weather any time!

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Yep, I think that's the issue I have with Cheshire gap showers/streamers. They are too hit and miss and you have to pray that the wind direction is bang on. It's so frustrating to watch the radar and see a line of showers missing your location by 10-20 miles all day!

Still, i'd take a Cheshire gap scenario over zonal Weather any time!

 

20th Dec 2009 was the worst, winds WNW, not a flake here, could see the anvils, 8 inches Stockport

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

20th Dec 2009 was the worst, winds WNW, not a flake here, could see the anvils, 8 inches Stockport

Man that sounds painful :( Christmas day 2004 (i think it was 2004) was horrible for me at the time. I was only 16 at the time and I knew there was a chance of snow showers that day. I was quite excited because I hadn't seen snow on Xmas day since I was about 8 years old. I remember keeping an eye on the radar most the day and seeing the showers miss to our West by 20-30 miles all day long.

Saw on the news that night that B'ham and a lot of the West Mids had an inch or 2 of snow. Was absolutely gutted!!

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nobble Rising Star

nobble

Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
Posted

Had about 4cm Christmas evening 2004 remember cleaning my grandads car off about midnight !

This upcoming spell will be a classic

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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
Posted

BBC news weather guy just finished off with "next week a screaming northerly"

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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted

Looking colder but dry and snowless at this stage here next week, uppers look marginal and will probably be watered down. Seen the carrot dangled, the garden path, a great ECM run all for it to be nothing but a few frosts and some frontal break down flakes before rain. Obviously, it may be completely wrong and turn into something brillant this time round, but unless it's at T24, it's not all that likely to happen. 

 

Keep a lid on expectations.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted (edited)

Looking colder but dry and snowless at this stage here next week, uppers look marginal and will probably be watered down. Seen the carrot dangled, the garden path, a great ECM run all for it to be nothing but a few frosts and some frontal break down flakes before rain. Obviously, it may be completely wrong and turn into something brillant this time round, but unless it's at T24, it's not all that likely to happen. 

 

Keep a lid on expectations.

 

I would say its looking wet from friday, trend seems to be to move the low pressure further west, so no northerly at all, GFS first to pick up on this, UKMO looks okay, but soon to see it backtrack to move the low over us, rather than to the east, meaning rain rather than dry

 

we need shifts east of the whole setup

Edited by Ilovethesnow
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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Good chance of snowfalls Wed night/Thurs morning especially for W Midlands although not exclusively. An unstable W,ly with upper temps of -8C could bring snow showers into this region.

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Snowyowl9 Veteran

Snowyowl9

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
Posted (edited)

Cold air is piling in looks like January 1984 again.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=eu&t=3e

Deep cold by Friday thickness levels.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

Edited by Snowyowl9
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