The Midlands - Weather Chat

[weirpig]

Edited January 19, 2015 by weirpig

[shaky]

So it begins. ....:0

[Ryan05]

When you say the BBC, do you mean an actual BBC TV forecast?

Or do you mean the BBC's algorithmic not-a-forecast?   (the pictures on their website)  Which is not quite the same thing

 

 

I meant the symbols on their website, this morning it was rain now its snow again. It was just an observation not to be take seriously hence the LOL at the end of my post.

 

My own view is like I said earlier, im sure some will get a surprise while others will be disappointed. For us in Nottingham it also depends how much precipitation makes it this far East, could all break up before it hits us so the Snow or Rain debate could well be academic for us.

 

Boxing Day was a classic example of the kind of uncertainty we are seeing now, for Nottingham it was forecast as all rain event on the day & even that may miss us. It then did indeed start as rain but then it quickly turned to snow, giving us a unexpected surprise

Edited January 19, 2015 by Ryan05

[kev238]

Yes but when you get posters talking of it being all over the shop and taking these automated forecasts as gospel then you are likely to get frustration. If you read back through this thread (over the past few days) there are a lot of people who takes these automated forecasts literally- then criticising the BBC / met office when the symbols change or don't match perfectly the conditions they experienced.

 

Moving on, it does seem strange there are no warnings out as all the output suggests some settling snowfall for this region. It is puzzling how there are no warnings- surely if the output remains consistent then a be aware warning will be put out even if the main emphasis is on areas of elevation? Perhaps there will be snow falling but that settling snow will be at a minimum.

[Staffordshire]

Quite scared to look at the models this afternoon

[Summer of 95]

-4 this morning with the car windows frozen shut, not seen that for a long time (maybe even Dec 2010). A nice frosty sunny start but yet again gone cloudy and risen to 4C, we still cant buy a low maximum which doesnt bode well for any snow.

[Arctic Hare]

Still tiny bits of snow in my (north-facing) back garden, but attention now turning to the next couple of days. Obviously this afternoon's models may spring surprises, but my hunch right now is that the Severn Valley isn't going to do very well out of any of this. I have a feeling it'll be a bit further east where the action is and that tomorrow night will simply bring cloud, murk and slightly sleety rain to Bewdley. I would love to be wrong, of course!

[The Wolf]

Dreading what the models are going to come out with now.

[Matty23]

That rain/ snow over Ireland is much further eaat then has been predicted isn't it??

[kmanmx]

12z GFS looks like a downgrade so far. Less precipitation and more mix of rain and snow.

 

edit:

 

Okay so yeah quite a large downgrade   Less PPN, more rain/sleet, and it's over much quicker.

Edited January 19, 2015 by kmanmx

[picog]

The front bringing snow to the west of Ireland currently is moving extremely slowly which is allowing warmer air to mix in. Not sure what to expect tomorrow evening, but suspect it will be cold sleety rain in the west of the region and light snow in the east.

Had another good frost last night -5.2C. Ground still frosty and frozen, pond still covered in ice. Maxed out at 3.5C today, temp now falling back.

[Staffordshire]

Not what we wanted to see at all, eastward shift.

[weirpig]

12z GFS looks like a downgrade so far. Less precipitation and more mix of rain and snow.

 

edit:

 

Okay so yeah quite a large downgrade   Less PPN, more rain/sleet, and it's over much quicker.

I really wouldnt take to much notice of the precipitation on gfs   prob best from now on to watch the euro 4  and nmm  models

[picog]

Not what we wanted to see at all, eastward shift.

hopefully, it'll shift back west by about 150 miles on the next run.

[Staffordshire]

hopefully, it'll shift back west by about 150 miles on the next run.

yeah and stall over us with torrential ppn for 24 hours

[conor123]

Rubbish charts for tomorrow, was hoping to see a last minute upgrade but 12z is no better with scraps of drizzle, uppers of -3 and surface temps of 2-4c 

[shaky]

Poor poor gfs!!! Just cant trust that model at the moment! ! When you look at the 12z you think how can it look that different at such a short time frame from the last run!! Just ridiculous! !

[MKN]

Very poor 12z gfs.

[kmanmx]

Poor poor gfs!!! Just cant trust that model at the moment! ! When you look at the 12z you think how can it look that different at such a short time frame from the last run!! Just ridiculous! !

 

I think who ever is plugging the data into that model has just cottoned on to the same info MetO have, as that would align with MetO thinking not much is going to happen. 

 

You are right about it being untrustworthy though. That's a radical change especially at this time frame.

Edited January 19, 2015 by kmanmx

[The Wolf]

Typical. Game over.

[snowangel32]

Yh throwing in the towel on this one now sleet at best met office say no, beep say no and now gfs follows suit i fear game over.

[Staffordshire]

Well actually just as gfs comes out with that, bbc 3:57 forecast shows snow falling in the east mids until wed pm

[kmanmx]

All we can do is pin our hopes on the NMM and EURO4, and perhaps a good 18z pub run from the GFS.

Edited January 19, 2015 by kmanmx

[rommy19871]

Following this cold spell for over a week and the best we had was ice in the morning. Typical.

[beefy201]

Just as i have been saying all along lol too many hang ups on long term model forcasting in these forums these days!!!!! anything further than 3 days out in winter is hope casting...