Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

[alibabba]

nothing here yet but has gone very cold

[Arnie1965]

same here LO - didnt think it would cover but the intensity is so fast with huge flakes it covered very quick

[Lincs Observation]

nothing here yet but has gone very cold

Looking at the radar it will be with you in the next 20 -30mins and lasting at least an hour (Sticking me neck out as the direction has changed and flow from N now, plenty all the way to Hull and beyond)

[Cold Winter]

Most of the region already got lucky at some point during this cold spell. Let's take a look at the next couple of days to see what's going on.

 

So we currently have low pressure to the east over the North Sea which is dragging in cold air from the north:

This low gradually moves northeast allowing a better northerly flow to become established by Sunday:

At the moment we have a very messy situation because of the low in the north sea which has brought higher 850hpa temperatures with it. Currently T850s are around -3 to -4. As a rough guide, -5 or lower is needed for snow, often -6 or -7 along the coast. Other factors are important too though, which means snow can fall with higher 850 temperatures.

As the northerly flow becomes better established, the T850s drop with colder air flooding down from the north by Sunday evening:

By Tuesday, the winds swing round to a more northeasterly direction, which should help push any showers that form further inland, hence the current Met Office warning for most areas on Tuesday, with T850s below -5c.

 

So the next thing to look for in the charts is precipitation. This is notoriously difficult and unreliable when predicting snowfall because of troughs and small scale disruptions which are only first modelled a few hours out. That's why people often mention getting the cold weather in place is more important first of all.

 

Today

The rest of today looks like being mainly dry once the rain, sleet and snow has cleared from the south of the region. The current radar shows some showers in the north sea behind this, but they will most likely be near to the coast, with rain and sleet at low levels and snow over higher ground. The reason for rain/sleet is because the 850 temperatures are today around -3 to -5c. Dewpoints are rising today also - generally 0c or below is needed for the chance of settling snow. This chart from the NMM for 3pm shows dew points of 2-3c in the east with 0 to -1c in the west:

 

 

Tonight

Overnight, the dewpoints drop away, especially in the west, down to -3 or -4c. In the east, a small disturbance related to the main low runs down the coast, keeping dewpoints above freezing here.

 

 

So because of the higher dewpoints and the slightly higher 850 temps, the NMM predicts a messy picture of rain, sleet and possibly snow tonight as some showery activity heads southwards. White diagonal lines indicate snow, otherwise rain/sleet:

 

Tomorrow:

The colder air starts to flood south during tomorrow which increases the chance of snow. However there appears to be less precipitation around and Sunday looks like being a dry, bright day for most, with perhaps some showers of sleet along the coast and snow especially over higher ground (perhaps the NY Moors & Wolds). Tonight's shower activity can be seen clearing southwards too by lunchtime tomorrow:

 

Summary

Rain, sleet and snow clearing southwards today, leaving a mainly bright picture behind for most of the region, especially in the west. Occasional showers continuing in the east, predominantly of rain or sleet, but with some snow over high ground which could begin to accumulate by the end of the day.

Overnight more showery activity passes southwards, mainly of rain and sleet along the coast, but with the possibility of some snow over higher ground.

Tomorrow sees a drier, more settled day once the showers have cleared, with just a few peppering coastal areas, turning increasingly wintry as the day goes on.

 

Outlook

Next week looks like staying cold with a more northeasterly wind on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could bring snow showers quite far inland. There is also the possibility of polar lows forming which can produce longer spells of snow, but these are difficult to model and will often change from one run to the next.

 

Either way, it looks like an interesting period of weather over the next week, cold weather fans should enjoy it!

 

Hope this post has been useful to explain the basics to newer members.

Edited January 31, 2015 by Cold Winter

[alibabba]

fingers crossed

[Lincs Observation]

Plenty of convection starting out at sea North Of Hull and flowing from a Northerly.

 

Directing Due S now changed from a SE about an hour ago so looking good for some appreciative snow

 

LO

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Edited January 31, 2015 by Lincs Observation

[caistor top]

Just spoke to my mate in scunny n there getting sleety stuff after earlier snow,just eased here but the radars looking good

[caistor top]

Sleety mix now :-(

[Just Before Dawn]

We've had snow and sleet this morning so things are obviously pretty marginal here. Currently turned back to snow.

[Lincs Observation]

Looks like the front is decaying typical, Stopped here now Humph! 

 

LO 

[Arnie1965]

almost stopped here - sky looks brighter as well

 

more to come ??

[Muffelchen]

I think Cold Winter's post earlier (#3934) is very informative. Looking at the NW radar screen and overlaying data, the uppers here are -3.3°C which is too warm for snow, hence sleet. However, the ground is still cold with slush still there and flakes still sitting in puddles, un-melted. Looking North (for the source of the air to come) the uppers do drop a bit but not dramatically it would seem so it looks like the rest of the day will follow the same pattern.

 

These warmer uppers were modelled but they were originally supposed to be further West and to occur yesterday but they are here today, sadly. I am away with work next week so I was hoping for some snow to go sledging with the kids :-( I am off tomorrow and not back till next weekend so I think that's the opportunity for this winter gone, although there is some hinting in the models of an extension to this cold spell but I remain to be convinced.

 

For those in the lower lying parts of the region who are getting 'front edge snow' don't count yer chickens looking at the showers coming in from the N Sea. Based on experience here and to the north, this turns to sleet and will stay as such.

[caistor top]

Def a bit of melt going on here,won't be great if it freezes on this lot later

[alibabba]

rain :-(

[Zak 92]

Snowing here been at it for about half hour 

[caistor top]

Yep more rain than sleet here,good while it lasted tho

[NorthYorksWeather]

Most of the region already got lucky at some point during this cold spell. Let's take a look at the next couple of days to see what's going on.

Outlook

Next week looks like staying cold with a more northeasterly wind on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could bring snow showers quite far inland. There is also the possibility of polar lows forming which can produce longer spells of snow, but these are difficult to model and will often change from one run to the next.

 

Either way, it looks like an interesting period of weather over the next week, cold weather fans should enjoy it!

 

Hope this post has been useful to explain the basics to newer members.

 

 

Great post, I reckon tonight will be similar to this mornings event, the warm sector of that shortwave moving down the coast will once again scupper the chances of any snow settling below 200m. The Wolds and Moors will see some more accumulations. My attention and Im sure yours in solely focused on Tuesday/Wednesday as we see the winds switch round to Northeast with uppers at around -7c, pushing those juicy showers inland. GFS shows the best outcome with a 36 hour window for snow showers, whereas UKMO/ECM looks slightly more shortlived at around 24 hours. Of course we could see disturbances for more significant snow or even upgrades on the longevity (for eg 06z GFS control run). 

 

Quick snapshot from Chopgate 200m up in the North York Moors this morning.

 

Edited January 31, 2015 by vizzy2004

[caistor top]

All rain here now

[Hurricane Andrew]

All rain here now

snowing here

[Zak 92]

Just slowed right down and its all pretty much melted already ah well it was nice to see 

[sunny scunny]

   This was taken earlier before the snow turned more sleety.

[sparky1972]

still snowing here but expecting it to turn to rain soon, been great to see though, proves the met forecast wrong though, we were forecast rain from 8 am.  current temp 0.8c dew point 0c

[Lincs Observation]

It is amazing how geography plays in these situations for instance i live in Kyme between sleaford and boston and our snow has gone, however 15mins North to coningsby is like a winter wonderland snow everywhere.

 

LO

[alibabba]

True we have had sleety drizzle so far

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

True we have had sleety drizzle so far

yes you can see it turns to snow when it gets heavier then rain then sleet and back to snow