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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

The big clue to what this winter was going to be like came at the end of September. The mean CET for September was only 0.2C different from that of August. There's only been 8 previous occasions since 1700 when the difference has been equal to or less than that, and seven of them have produced notably cold Jan to March spells, mainly involving cold Februarys.

So still a long way to go......the average CET for the first ten days of March is the same more or less as the first ten days of December so I look upon March as a winter month as well.....and let's not forget that since December 2010, our coldest month has been a March (2013)!

My thoughts are that, not discounting any interim periods of cold, a notable cold spell shall come our way towards the end of Jan, with the models picking it up consistently around the 20th, the cold coming in on the 27th and the first lot of snow from it arriving in our region around the night of the 29th/30th

We can't even predict what will happen in 10 days! So hats off if your predictions comes off lol

Edited by clark3r
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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex

As I predicted at least 2 weeks ago!  In fact, I'll give you another prediction - we'll have our third snow-free winter next year! :doh:

 

Go sit in the corner now!! :D

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Go sit in the corner now!! :D

 

LOL - don't get me wrong - I don't want it, but I just have a feeling.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

We can't even predict what will happen in 10 days! So hats off if your predictions comes off lol

 

Not sure I like the word "predictions" in there.   A lot of data input and statistical analysis has gone into my thoughts, as well as a considerable amount of researching through the archives.

I think I prefer the word "guesses"  !!  :)

I was looking for it but couldn't find it until now......here was my forecast posted back in  October...

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page-30

 

 

Based on my highly amateur statistical analysis of the past 315 years, I'm going for an autumn/winter of mixed but mainly wet mild and windy weather with occasional brief cold interludes..nothing out of the ordinary, until we approach the last few days of January which will see it trend colder and lead into a cold February with some falls of snow in favoured areas (not widespread). Only in the last few days of February will the first shoots of Spring start to appear

Edited by Timmytour
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Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,

model thread now showing January storms

like a lot of others on here have said, I too will not be reading the model threads they are all moaning at each other just because they can't find any charts that will guarantee cold next few weeks.... Ones that do would easily get a Job with the Daily Express!!!! If their that concerned they want cold head to Russia .
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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

A lovely winters day here after a hard frost this morning, the temperature maxing out at 4C today. Sadly turning cloudier overnight with a couple more coldish days before the mild weather returns. Also have loved the calmness of recent days, not looking forward to seeing the return of windy weather!

 

Encouraging charts from the stratosphere tonight, hopefully if they come into fruition it may help increase the chances of a cold spell further down the line later in January. Time will tell though! Hopefully, we won't have to put up with a zonal pattern for too long.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Thought I had walked into the mod thread .... What happened to when it happens it happens ?? We don't do technical in here we are just simple lamppost watchers ;)

Well then we will all be made redundant I see no snow on the horizon. :nonono:

mid January onwards is starting to gather pace, in a good way. The new 12z ECMWF pretty much destroys the 10mb vortex. Wow tonight is looking fiercely cold, down to -8C in rural places. More widely -3C/-4C definite bite, in cold weather like this I really do feel for the homeless, we should count ourselves lucky that we are have shelter and warmth & internet connection not all necessities either.

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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Thought I had walked into the mod thread .... What happened to when it happens it happens ?? We don't do technical in here we are just simple lamppost watchers ;)

My lamp post is on, I repeat my lamp post is now on.

 

Cold and buggerall else to report apart from the frost.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

11th of January the MJO goes into phase 6, 19th January it goes into phase 7 then around the 28th it goes into phase 8! :yahoo: (what's an MJO) :cc_confused::unknw:;) Meanwhile, cold and froosty here! 0.1c :smiliz19:

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

-3.1C here at the moment in the Hertfordshire 'frost hollow'  :)

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Posted
  • Location: herne bay,kent
  • Weather Preferences: lots of snow and cold crisp mornings! thunder storms!
  • Location: herne bay,kent

*wondering if on my CV under hobbies I could put expert lamppost watcher....

Loops one too many baileys I mean lampost

Oh dear I'll shut up now...

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

All this talk of a snowless January or even winter does make me laugh. It was only last week everyone was geared up for a raging easterly from a Scandinavian high (not without support ) and talk of retrogression to Greenland etc etc. truth of the matter is we are in a typical winter set up, Azures high and a lobe of PV to our north west bringing pretty bog standard weather to our little island. It's hard to see where any HLB is going to develop at the moment but I would say that the words sausage and cross polar may become words we will become familiar with.

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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.

*wondering if on my CV under hobbies I could put expert lamppost watcher....

Loops one too many baileys I mean lampost

Oh dear I'll shut up now...

Lamp post!

 

Bit of a frost this morning, but nothing to write home about. Glorious crisp winter's day before a rapid plunge back to zero or thereabouts.

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Posted
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Cold.
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock

Another thick frost forming / formed here.

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Posted
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny; chilly and sunny; thunderstorms; extreme
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL

Chilly here too.

Exeter: minus 3 c

;-)

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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

Lovely lunch - roast beef Yorkshire puddings gammon ham roast potatoes and parsnips. Then noticed sun was going down fast, so off for a frosty walk to see sunset with a bottle of Cava - my friends live in Scotland so can't have a New Year with them - drank Cava as the sun set. Then home for Christmas pudding and brandy cream, coffee and chocs.

Perfect day.... Cue Lou Reed.

Edited by Iceni
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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

Keep the faith peeps. Snow will come before Jan is out. This winter already feels a lot different to the last. Just a period of average cool wet and windy conditions to get through first. Patience required as ever...

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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

Keep the faith peeps. Snow will come before Jan is out. This winter already feels a lot different to the last. Just a period of average cool wet and windy conditions to get through first. Patience required as ever...

Technically snow HAS come it's what it did on Friday night didn't settle but it sure was snow.

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