Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

[Met4Cast]

I'm in South London today so I'm hoping being a little further North than my usual location will help, though I do have the urban heat effect here so that could cause issues.

 

Latest NMM model shows rain/sleet for our region, though with elevation and PPN intensity there could be some wet snow around.

 

 

 

[CanadaAl]

We are sitting in a real cusp zone in NW Essex huh.

As you said, Looks like us lot in sunny saffers could be on a knife edge tonight. the difference of 20 miles could make all the difference. fingers crossed! 

[Daniel*]

The Snow Scanner checks TAF (Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts) around the country every 30 seconds to check for signs of developing snow or sleet forecasts. So clever but yet so simple... so Metcheck.

Sounds legit

God knows if these provide to be accurate find out more here: https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/snowscanner.asp

Snow probability

Surrey 01:00 04:00 30%

Sussex 02:00 08:00 30%

Sussex 11:00 18:00 40%

[Stuie]

Another Waldener :-) Yip, not sure if i will be able to keep the candle burning to see if it does snow though!

[SnowBorder]

Had loads of them here last week, quite a sight to see them in such large numbers.

There are lots of seagulls here at the moment.

[snowking]

We are sitting in a real cusp zone in NW Essex huh.

Absolutely - I suspect we will see snow falling but accumulation will be another matter.

I'll be up in Ashdon this evening so not far from you at all. Would be nice to come out at midnight to a nice white scene!

SK

[Stuie]

Absolutely - I suspect we will see snow falling but accumulation will be another matter.

I'll be up in Ashdon this evening so not far from you at all. Would be nice to come out at midnight to a nice white scene!

SK

 

:-)

[john mac]

Absolutely - I suspect we will see snow falling but accumulation will be another matter.

I'll be up in Ashdon this evening so not far from you at all. Would be nice to come out at midnight to a nice white scene!

SK

Do you think that front is occluding quicker than expected? If so what impact could that have on events later on?

[weathergeek]

I'm thinking the fact this is going through the night goes in our favour due to further temp drops?Would love to wake to a pretty dusting tomorrow but not holding my breath either!

Good luck fellow southeasterners!!xx

[snowking]

Do you think that front is occluding quicker than expected? If so what impact could that have on events later on?

 

Hi John,

 

Potentially so. It may just be that the precipitation was more intense than forecast, but I suspect we are seeing the triple point developing more quickly than expected.

 

The effects could be numerous (both positive and negative), but generally speaking we want the precipitation to be as heavy as possible for as long as possible to help cool the surface.

 

SK

[Lauren]

Well we do have a 'snowy sky' out there.

[clark3r]

Who knows what will happen over night, proberly wake up to no snow! Would love a covering of snow to surprise Us in the morning!

[john mac]

Hi John,

 

Potentially so. It may just be that the precipitation was more intense than forecast, but I suspect we are seeing the triple point developing more quickly than expected.

Could also make the precip. More widespread?

 

The effects could be numerous (both positive and negative), but generally speaking we want the precipitation to be as heavy as possible for as long as possible to help cool the surface.

 

SK

[Flaked Queen]

Think it's a case of lamppost watching tonight ... Been such a long time im snow starved

Greater london

[snowking]

 

Hi John,

 

Potentially so. It may just be that the precipitation was more intense than forecast, but I suspect we are seeing the triple point developing more quickly than expected.

Could also make the precip. More widespread?

 

The effects could be numerous (both positive and negative), but generally speaking we want the precipitation to be as heavy as possible for as long as possible to help cool the surface.

 

SK

 

It's a little more widespread than expected already, though generally the occluding of the fronts will lead to a more concentrated area of precipitation as the day goes on, especially as the low deepens a little further and we see an increase in shear.

 

SK

[john mac]

Deathly quiet outside feeling cold too, skies looking snow filled!!!

[john mac]

Cheers SK, informative as ever, what time is it expected to hit our area?

[Essexgooner]

Certainly a nip in the air today, early frost and currently dead still, not a breath of wind.... feels like a proper winter day at the moment, lets see what develops later, not that I think much will happen down my neck of the woods, but you never know  

[Daniel*]

Not really great but the sky does appear snowy it has that white tinge to it... not shown well by Photo.

Chilly 3.5C Dew Point 2 C - dew points do concern me most of all

Should we do a round up? temp + dp's will be interested to gain an idea of our "locality"

[JennyJane1]

southernman says sky is blue at reedham

[john mac]

Temp 5.1c

Dewpoint 2c

Pressure higher than expected 1030mb

[snowking]

image.jpg

Not really great but the sky does appear snowy it has that white tinge to it... not shown well by Photo.

Chilly 3.5C Dew Point 2 C - dew points do concern me most of all

Should we do a round up? temp + dp's will be interested to gain an idea of our "locality"

 

That's the key one to keep an eye on as the evening goes on is how the dew points drop.

 

 

 

Cheers SK, informative as ever, what time is it expected to hit our area?

 

Model estimates were for around 6pm this evening, but looking at the radar at the moment I dare say it could be an hour or two earlier than that. It will slow down over time as it starts to pivot, and ideally you want to be to the North of the triple point as it begins to pivot through this evening.

 

SK

[Mark Neal.]

Sleety rain here.

[john mac]

Just been on the thread for this event. News from RJS is that precip is already turning to snow in Ireland North of the track. He says that by the time it reaches the uk it will be a degree or 2 cooler so anywhere north of London should get some snow. Also precip is looking heavier than expected!!

[ITSY]

Just watched the 13:57 with Avery...
 

Looks like the most sustained snow will be north of Peterborough towards the midlands and the southern portion of northern England. Largely heavy and cold rain on areas of typical elevation for our region, until after midnight when it looks like a couple of cms is likely for some.

If anyone has snow falling before midnight in our region then they could do reasonably well