Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Awaking from my gutbusting dinner and champagne stupor, I wish you all a great Christmas and healthy new year. Still quite sozzled and now trying to understand the latest prognosis for snow in the next few days... Certainly the paranoid schizophrenics in the mod thread lately haven't helped, apart from a handful of posters who really do know their stuff. Thanks go to them and I will keep lurking :-)

 

Some of the people in the MOD thread are a pain - they follow each model run to the point that their opinion is never the same from one to the next.  Merry Christmas (what's left of it). :smiliz19:

[Stuie]

Just look at that cold to our East! Good old ECM, wow.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just look at that cold to our East! Good old ECM, wow.

 

Nice - trouble is, the MOD thread moaners have dug-up a chart for New Year's Day showing a south-westerly.

[Stuie]

Nice - trouble is, the MOD thread moaners have dug-up a chart for New Year's Day showing a south-westerly.

 

Yeah seen that and replied. Quite bizarre how FI is out of range for cold but OK when showing a milder outlook. I also think they think it will be 25 degs when they see some yellow...

[lassie23]

Lettuced up the turkey! It seemed to be a heat resistant one! Damn thing wouldn't cook!   Then ended up over cooking it, the breast can be used as sand paper! :smiliz19: We went for a walk to help dislodge the dried up turkey from our stomachs! I blame the new gas cooker! :smiliz39: It was cold out 3.8c, it is getting cloudy! Any chance of snow settling tomorrow? :w00t:

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Gas has run out here, just got home, no storage heaters and no gas card because mum has it, so can't even put emergency on!

 

Outside: 3.3c
Inside: 11.6c

 

[saint]

Settling snow will be restricted to the North of London I suspect.

Lassie... There's more emoticons than actual words in your posts! Haha.

[Daniel*]

Settling snow will be restricted to the North of London I suspect.

Lassie... There's more emoticons than actual words in your posts! Haha.

From Yorkshire regional the poster does not even a clue where he obtained it from?

Checked MOD thread it is legitimate

Edited December 25, 2014 by Daniel*

[snowking]

Tomorrow will be a very long but hopefully very fruitful day!

Could be the first snow falling since March 2013 for most of us. Every tenth of a degree and every inch of height will help in this one - Chilterns, higher ground in Essex/Herts (East Anglian heights I believe they are known as)...possibly even the downs a little later on.

We do have to track this carefully because modelling has continued to decrease the depth of the low (hence the increasingly southerly track), which also happens to aid with potential evaporative cooling with winds slightly less strong than initially expected. But equally there is every chance it ends up 1 or 2 more mB deeper or shallower, which could be the difference between the snowline moving 50 miles further North (and reducing most of us to Turkey-concentrated tears) or 50 miles further South, allowing those down in Kent/Sussex/Surrey to join in the fun.

Finally, I'll leave you with this tease - the Stansted airport TAF until midnight tomorrow - probability of rain-snow/snow after 9pm.

SK

[alexisj9]

Ooh Dover is right on the boundary of that, will it or won't it, fingers crossed.

[CanadaAl]

looks like sunny saffron walden is a little bit too south. Dear Mr Low, in the spirit of christmas, can you track a little bit further south please? Thanks  

[Mark Neal.]

Come South. Perleaseee!

[Jax]

Well I survived today, since I had a early start I was glad to get home so I could get my head down for an hour (normal day is early for me you see).

[Daniel*]

EURO4 18z has the low a smidgen further south almost negligible

"but every little helps" on that note I bid you adieu .

[Mark Neal.]

-1.2c. Clear skies. 5mph W

[londonblizzard]

Here in zone 3 north london it looks like it's gonna be a close one tomorrow for snow. Keeping my fingers crossed but i suspect the most i'll see is a bit of sleet. If i recall, it does remind me of December 2009 just before christmas (perhaps mon 21st?) when late afternoon/early evening a band of precipitation swept east, forecast as rain for London and most of the south east. Although it rained for several hours it then started to snow as evening fell and even settled on the wet ground, with blizzard-like conditions for a time. Wouldn't this be nice aye! 

[Met4Cast]

Anyone know if the graph was created by the MetOffice/where the original is? Looks like our region could see a dusting.. Not 100% sure it's legit though

[Captain Shortwave]

Good morning, hope everyone had a great Christmas day

So then this possible snow event, well travelling north to Great Yarmouth today, though my journey will likely be under clear and sunny skies. 

According to the NMM model (in house), it looks like some moderate bursts of snow over Norfolk after midnight with this extending south but weakening quite quickly. The precipitation will likely be of rain near coastal areas. The rainfall accumulations look pretty high so I wouldn't be surprised if 5-10cm fell over the hills and maybe some accumulations to lower levels too.

[shaky]

Good morning, hope everyone had a great Christmas day

So then this possible snow event, well travelling north to Great Yarmouth today, though my journey will likely be under clear and sunny skies. 

According to the NMM model (in house), it looks like some moderate bursts of snow over Norfolk after midnight with this extending south but weakening quite quickly. The precipitation will likely be of rain near coastal areas. The rainfall accumulations look pretty high so I wouldn't be surprised if 5-10cm fell over the hills and maybe some accumulations to lower levels too.

does it look good for areas further north and west such as leicester?

[Matty M]

Still crucial differences between EC, UK and GFS,

 

EC being the middle track so used for gudance

[Captain Shortwave]

does it look good for areas further north and west such as leicester?

An area of rain, sleet and snow moves in from the west around mid-afternoon. Worst affected regions appear to be north west Wales, North Midlands, Pennines, Lincolnshire and later Norfolk as the front pivots and then moves south east.

Of course this could all change of course. Leicester looks like being in a reasonable position.

FAX chart for midnight tonight

Beyond this a risk of wintry showers into Saturday before turning crisp and sunny Sunday through to at least Tuesday. Temperatures look to sit around the 2-5C mark throughout, but colder later on in areas which freezing fog can stick.

Saturday midday

Note the occlusion moving south, the BBC weather graphics picking up a lot of shower activity down the east/north east coasts of England so the potential for frequent and possibly heavy showers with a mix of rain, sleet and snow. Snow more bias to the lucky ones inland where the showers can successfully penetrate.

Edited December 26, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[SnowBorder]

Just been sitting in the garden drinking my morning coffee, and watched circa 200 large birds flying west at a real pace. They weren't geese and it was too dark to see if they were pigeons or seagulls, but they were that size. They weren't singing or anything but the noise they made from flying so quickly was quite loud. Never seen it before, but I'm sharing it with you all because they were flying from the east. I suspect it's just about to get very cold in Europe and that weather is heading our way soon. I know the weather models don't suggest an easterly, but the birds looked in a real panic to fly west. It was a like a mini scene from the film 'day after tomorrow'

[Jo S]

Very frosty here, lovely and crisp, no breeze all still, the calm before the storm, maybe, fingers crossed

[bluearmy]

Leicester looks like being in a reasonable position.

.

You clearly haven't looked at the table captain!

Anyway, I'm in the northwest till tomorrow so I have a chance of seeing stuff tonight and then travelling back tomorrow, Should enjoy some decent views if something has settled and if not, I'll go the moors route to make sure I do!

Good luck to all of you and remember, it's not the turn of the year yet! Don't get too frustrated.

[alexisj9]

Temp 1.5, no wind at all, Cloudy,