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The Met Office’s outlook for the start of winter 2014

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Does anyone know when they last forecast a below avg temp winter ? They could just issue that forecast every year and get it right 80% of the time

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Does anyone know when they last forecast a below avg temp winter ? They could just issue that forecast every year and get it right 80% of the time

Last winter, but they only do preliminary forecast for the general public and until long range forecasting improves they're better off as it's a minefield to negotiate

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Pretty poor if im honest.

 

A whole video devoted to what they do & no comments on the rationale for this winter being above average.

 

there is not ONE indices indicating an above average Winter.

 

the QBO, The SAI , the October height anomaly in the Taymyr region & its feedback, the wave 1 activity for the last 6 weeks - all indicated a cold blocked winter.

 

The Met office need a new model with restricted long term mean data.

 

They should run the model from 2007 as the long term mean.

An interesting theory could you elaborate as to why Steve, as would not the same  issues with algorithms  still be present?

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Pretty poor if im honest.

 

A whole video devoted to what they do & no comments on the rationale for this winter being above average.

 

there is not ONE indices indicating an above average Winter.

 

the QBO, The SAI , the October height anomaly in the Taymyr region & its feedback, the wave 1 activity for the last 6 weeks - all indicated a cold blocked winter.

 

The Met office need a new model with restricted long term mean data.

 

They should run the model from 2007 as the long term mean.

A cold blocked Winter for who? That's the bit you always forget.

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Well the OPI forecast is due tomorrow so that no doubt will need a thread of its own given the interest its generated this year !

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They refer to the first three months as November, December and January being mainly "milder and wetter" than average but their confidence of this continuing in the latter part of the 3 month period is "reduced".

That says to me that January, or at least part of it, is the one month that they're hedging their bets to a colder regime.

i think a number of the more educated contributors on here have been hinting as January being the coldest month of the UK winter 14/15, so maybe not as far apart as at first it seems.

Meto were pretty much spot on last winter with their 14-day outlooks, so i wont be discounting their preliminary forecast.

I'd defo prefer a cold, snowy 'core' to our winter, but let's see who's been proved the more correct come winter's end.

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Hi Hocus -

The reason I chose that year is relating to the first real low ice volume measurement - & now the subsequent 6 years (small size) of height feedback around the northern parts of Eurasia -

All models ( climate inc ) must have a base state to run on, I dont know what percentile that is within the model the UKMO uses however somewhere in there will be that base - most long term means are produced from a start point of 1950 or 1948 which all but identical & span approx 60 years.

If you run the long term mean v the 2007-2013 height anomalies then you will see that there is a considerable disrepancy along the 70n line with specific areas of high pressure.

The glosea data will interprete the current state of the stratosphere & tropospehere but perhaps that signal is muted v the long term mean-

If you run the current glosea v the 2007 onwards anomaly suddenly they are working in tandom as opposed to working against each other

That scenario would certainly change the dynamics of the forecast and almost certainly improve the accuracy.

Regards

S

Edited by Steve Murr

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Last winter, but they only do preliminary forecast for the general public and until long range forecasting improves they're better off as it's a minefield to negotiate

 

Its a no win for them following the famous barbecue summer

 

I don't know why they don't just concentrate on a monthly forecast rather the it maybe wetter milder then average etc

Edited by stewfox

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You can sort of understand them calling a wet & mild Winter as that has been the case for the last 25-30 yrs, but as Steve M points out, there has been a change since 2007, with a lot more extremes being thrown into the mix.

 

Those extremes have  both been of the wettest and also coldest months on record.

 

This is were I think the Meto need to start focusing on, because it no longer serves a purpose just calling the next 3 months as wetter and milder than average, because last Winter was WETTER and milder than average & also windier , but that serves little comfort to those poor soles who lost there lives or were flooded, & also to the wider public -  the travel chaos & disruption to business the WETTER & MILDER & WINDIER Winter we had.

 

The MET should just not bother doing a long range forecast, unless then know for sure (which is just impossible to do) exactly what the weather is going to do - they are on a loser right from the start.......

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Hi Hocus -

The reason I chose that year is relating to the first real low ice volume measurement - & now the subsequent 6 years (small size) of height feedback around the northern parts of Eurasia -

All models ( climate inc ) must have a base state to run on, I dont know what percentile that is within the model the UKMO uses however somewhere in there will be that base - most long term means are produced from a start point of 1950 or 1948 which all but identical & span approx 60 years.

If you run the long term mean v the 2007-2013 height anomalies then you will see that there is a considerable disrepancy along the 70n line with specific areas of high pressure.

The glosea data will interprete the current state of the stratosphere & tropospehere but perhaps that signal is muted v the long term mean-

If you run the current glosea v the 2007 onwards anomaly suddenly they are working in tandom as opposed to working against each other

That scenario would certainly change the dynamics of the forecast and almost certainly improve the accuracy.

Regards

S[/quoteThanks Steve, makes perfect sense in what your proposing.]

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Pretty poor if im honest.

 

A whole video devoted to what they do & no comments on the rationale for this winter being above average.

 

there is not ONE indices indicating an above average Winter.

 

the QBO, The SAI , the October height anomaly in the Taymyr region & its feedback, the wave 1 activity for the last 6 weeks - all indicated a cold blocked winter.

 

The Met office need a new model with restricted long term mean data.

 

They should run the model from 2007 as the long term mean.

 

Close to or above average sea ice in the Kara/Barents region and a cool N.Atlantic sub polar gyre. There are 2 signs pointing towards a +ve NAO and reduced likelihood of cold weather here.

 

The models capture the most up to date and best understanding of the physics of the atmosphere. Using these to predict winter weather probabilities is as good a rationale as any. The mean used for GloSea is 1996-2009 and they are run from initial conditions a different points each month. As the video states, they take into account the most recent states of the ocean, sea ice and other observational data, so I doubt your suggestion of just running the models since 2007 would create any improvement as it wouldn't change the physics of the model, nor the observational data used to set the initial conditions.

 

Lets not forget, this is just NDJ, which could include a cold cold, dry January and still be correct.

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Close to or above average sea ice in the Kara/Barents region and a cool N.Atlantic sub polar gyre. There are 2 signs pointing towards a +ve NAO and reduced likelihood of cold weather here.

The models capture the most up to date and best understanding of the physics of the atmosphere. Using these to predict winter weather probabilities is as good a rationale as any. The mean used for GloSea is 1996-2009 and they are run from initial conditions a different points each month. As the video states, they take into account the most recent states of the ocean, sea ice and other observational data, so I doubt your suggestion of just running the models since 2007 would create any improvement as it wouldn't change the physics of the model, nor the observational data used to set the initial conditions.

Lets not forget, this is just NDJ, which could include a cold cold, dry January and still be correct.

It doesn't explain why they are consistently wrong with regards to their LRF though, something is amiss or they're no better at LRF now than they where 30 years ago. IMO there are a number of posters on here who are nearer the mark year in year out, why is this?

Edit; I know it sounds like I'm a MetO knocker but nothing could be further from the truth, it's just the long range stuff where I feel there's been little improvement over the years, perhaps this is why they've stopped issuing them per say until longer range models can get a better grasp of the different parameters involved.

Edited by Hocus Pocus

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It doesn't explain why they are consistently wrong with regards to their LRF though, something is amiss or they're no better at LRF now than they where 30 years ago. IMO there are a number of posters on here who are nearer the mark year in year out, why is this?

Edit; I know it sounds like I'm a MetO knocker but nothing could be further from the truth, it's just the long range stuff where I feel there's been little improvement over the years, perhaps this is why they've stopped issuing them per say until longer range models can get a better grasp of the different parameters involved.

 

I'd like to see the stats that show they are consistently wrong. I mean in an objective manner, and not a select few seasons. Then I'd like to see how the MO compared to forecasts from those that cherry pick different indices, focus primarily on particular factors, use their intuition or whatever other methods to make seasonal forecasts.

 

We need to remember that their forecasts are made with indications of the probability of different outcomes. So looking at individual forecasts and saying that they're wrong isn't the right way to go about things. You have to assess how well their probabilities work out over many years.

 

Finally, while it may not be as exciting as predictions of epic cold made with claims of high certainties, the current state of long range forecasting means that probabilities, in the way the MO do things, is the best way to go. Anyone that claims high precision and high levels of certainty for events weeks or months away are either trying to con you or have deluded themselves into thinking they have forecasting skill and knowledge that doesn't yet exist.

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I'd like to see the stats that show they are consistently wrong. I mean in an objective manner, and not a select few seasons. Then I'd like to see how the MO compared to forecasts from those that cherry pick different indices, focus primarily on particular factors, use their intuition or whatever other methods to make seasonal forecasts.

 

We need to remember that their forecasts are made with indications of the probability of different outcomes. So looking at individual forecasts and saying that they're wrong isn't the right way to go about things. You have to assess how well their probabilities work out over many years.

 

Finally, while it may not be as exciting as predictions of epic cold made with claims of high certainties, the current state of long range forecasting means that probabilities, in the way the MO do things, is the best way to go. Anyone that claims high precision and high levels of certainty for events weeks or months away are either trying to con you or have deluded themselves into thinking they have forecasting skill and knowledge that doesn't yet exist.

 

Edit: Sorry for the rash reply BFTV, I was busy multitasking with my children at the same time as cooking. I realise you weren't implying such, apologies.

Edited by Hocus Pocus

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Were the MetO going for a cold/blocked winter 2013/14? - can't remember that! I can remember though the contingency forecasts for the councils (at the end of November) saying a possibility of high pressure close to the UK and a hint of near to average temperatures and I think Gavin P forecast something along the same lines.

Edited by Froze were the Days

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I think there's a reasonable case to be made that the seasonal models have particular difficulties handling winter - certainly it's a case Judah Cohen makes here, particularly regarding the warm Arctic/low sea ice forcing, which the models do struggle with

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/events/2014/arctic-predictions-science/presentations/tue/arctic-wkshp-051314-cohen.pdf

Looking at the IRI website it's clear that the seasonal forecast model consensus in November has been for a greater chance of above than below average winter for most of Europe every single winter since it started, and yet four of the last five winters have seen generally below average temperatures across Europe

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

Of course, they are continually being updated and improved with the latest research so I certainly wouldn't suggest that it's a pointless venture by any means, but it will be interesting to see if they defy many of the background factors pointing towards a colder than average winter generally for the NH.

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Were the MetO going for a cold/blocked winter 2013/14? - can't remember that! I can remember though the contingency forecasts for the councils (at the end of November) saying a possibility of high pressure close to the UK and a hint of near to average temperatures and I think Gavin P forecast something along the same lines.

 

Here it is:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/8/A3_plots-precip-DJF-2.pdf

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/c/A3_plots-temp-DJF.pdf

Went for a slightly greater chance of a below average winter than above based on the fact that 'forecast models favour a negative NAO pattern this winter' and also went for a drier than average winter with a 'weakening of the prevailing westerly flow'. 

Edited by LomondSnowstorm

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Were the MetO going for a cold/blocked winter 2013/14? - can't remember that! I can remember though the contingency forecasts for the councils (at the end of November) saying a possibility of high pressure close to the UK and a hint of near to average temperatures and I think Gavin P forecast something along the same lines.

Their November update was one of HLB and a colder than average outlook, this then changed in December.

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Last winter was a perfect example, they along with others to be fair were touting for a cold and blocked winter. As for your own  damning verdict on the likes of Chion and others here I find that rather patronising as the amount of work that goes into their work probably far excels anything from the MetO in the long rang stakes. There's a reason why they dropped making LRF and judging from their preliminary views I can see why, it's basically something that most members on here could have written going for nothing more than the law of averages. Anyway that's my two cents on this matter, relevant or not.

 

Edit: Sorry for the rash reply BFTV, I was busy multitasking with my children at the same time as cooking. I realise you weren't implying such, apologies.

 

"Damning verdict of Chion..."???  I don't see that, Hocus and if that's the rash reply you refer back to maybe just delete it?  

 

Otherwise, what BFTV suggests about seeing stats.."to see the stats that show they are consistently wrong. I mean in an objective manner, and not a select few seasonsis very reasonable.  

 

You use one season, last year, as an example. A single sample, or two or even three, is hardly "consistently wrong". I'd have more faith in a forecaster with a 70-80% success rate base on probability forecasts than a self-professed claim of 80% by people like Ken Ring (New Zealand forecaster) or by James Madden and his inExacta rubbish..

 

Anyway, Steve is putting forward a strong argument for a cold winter forecast.  The Met Office, on current factors, don't see it as the form horse..as they say. Let's wait for the season to actually happen before taking anyone to task about winter.  It will be what it is and Steve, Uk Met Office, Joe B*stardi, Madden, Powell, Corbyn, et al, can't influence outcome. I hope as much effort goes into re-analysis when all is said and done that any lesson to be learned can be learned...

 

J.

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"Damning verdict of Chion..."???  I don't see that, Hocus and if that's the rash reply you refer back to maybe just delete it?  

 

Otherwise, what BFTV suggests about seeing stats.."to see the stats that show they are consistently wrong. I mean in an objective manner, and not a select few seasonsis very reasonable.  

 

You use one season, last year, as an example. A single sample, or two or even three, is hardly "consistently wrong". I'd have more faith in a forecaster with a 70-80% success rate base on probability forecasts than a self-professed claim of 80% by people like Ken Ring (New Zealand forecaster) or by James Madden and his inExacta rubbish..

 

Anyway, Steve is putting forward a strong argument for a cold winter forecast.  The Met Office, on current factors, don't see it as the form horse..as they say. Let's wait for the season to actually happen before taking anyone to task about winter.  It will be what it is and Steve, Uk Met Office, Joe B*stardi, Madden, Powell, Corbyn, et al, can't influence outcome. I hope as much effort goes into re-analysis when all is said and done that any lesson to be learned can be learned...

 

J.

I'm not sure how to delete as it's not showing as an option jcw, hence my apologies. I can assure you there are far more long range forecasts that have gone pear shaped from the MetO, BBQ summers milder than average winter prior to 2009/120 etc, etc. This isn't a point scoring exercise or a MetO bashing competition it's simply  observational analysis on previous long range forecasts and not a witch hunt as my best man works for the MetO.

I've managed to edit my post and deleted the content, I was looking for a delete toggle previously.

Edited by Hocus Pocus

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