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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

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well eastern europe could be going in to the freezer if 18gfs is correct............

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Wheres this mild air everyone's talking about?

 

gfs-1-192.png?18

 

To be fair the mild air is over us at the moment but there is nothing what you would call significantly mild in the output and with a strongish easterly wind about to develop, it certainly won't feel mild. 

 

Would be nice too see a true cool airmass soon which has been lacking this autumn. 

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Paralell sticks the finger up at the Atlantic, barely a front would pass through alive.

 

Chilly away from the south too.

 

Rpgfs2407.gif

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Interesting developments in The later stages of the 00:00z GFS, now trending towards a much colder scenario as the big Russian high extend its influence ever further westward and at the same time an Atlantic low is forced under the block helping push much colder uppers toward eastern area of the British Isles.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.gif

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Paralell sticks the finger up at the Atlantic, barely a front would pass through alive.

 

Chilly away from the south too.

 

Rpgfs2407.gif

 

Yes it's been running with variations of this for three runs and this morning introduces a SW ridge and a shallow trough.

 

Courtesy WxBell

post-12275-0-82441100-1416030640_thumb.p

post-12275-0-49533600-1416030649_thumb.p

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Well no sign of anything cold but I think the GFS especially the 'para' has backed away from bringing the wet and windy stuff in ! 

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Some significant changes with the GEFFs anomalies this morning compared to 12z yesterday.

 

At t168 the Canadian low,trough is constrained to running N/S instead of extending into the Atlantic and the Scandinavian HP reinforced and blocking the jet. This gives rise to Surface HP from the central Atlantic eastwards.

 

At T240 similar picture with the trough running N/S central Atlantic with HP in the east. Also a ridge along the eastern seaboard so surface HP cells both east and west.

 

This may well be a transient situation as there are signs that this will not be a durable block down the line but hey, that's speculation.

 

Temps above average.

 

Charts courtesy WxBell

 

post-12275-0-57316500-1416034837_thumb.p

post-12275-0-96164900-1416034848_thumb.p

post-12275-0-67452200-1416034855_thumb.p

post-12275-0-08980200-1416034876_thumb.p

post-12275-0-98289200-1416034887_thumb.p

post-12275-0-63123000-1416034896_thumb.p

post-12275-0-38652000-1416034906_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

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Wheres this mild air everyone's talking about?

 

 

here

post-2797-0-04263400-1416036606_thumb.gi here post-2797-0-53962900-1416036636_thumb.gi

 

here

post-2797-0-60930500-1416036655_thumb.gi here post-2797-0-64888600-1416036671_thumb.gi

 

the point being that anyone can cherry pick a chart or two to prove a point, and i must say to my eye the gfsp 's evolution looks plausible, and the noaa anomaly doesnt rule it out

post-2797-0-38717200-1416036885_thumb.gi

 

 

but in reality thats only one possible option. cases can be made for a mild outlook as much as a cold one. i wont pretend to understand the more technical data, so i listen to the pro's who do. and several, both senior forecasters on here and on the tv mention itll be mild at least at times. if anybody doesnt agree, take it up with them, not me! :p

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Looking through the individual GEFS this morning there are some decent runs in there if it's cold your after. Taking 300 hours as the comparison point (yes it's a long way out) there are some cold runs.

As this time point takes us closer to the end of the month there are more runs with decent cold pools associated. As always nothing is certain, But there is just a hint of a signal in the modelling upto 300 hours in my view so I certainly wouldn't be betting the house on the Atlantic this morning.

After high res ends on GFS I only really treat FI as just another ensemble member tbh

Jason

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With the trend for a scandi high , there will be cold members on the ens as we see on the ops that small depressions will get through the gap where the sceuro ridge meets the arctic high (ne of Greenland). These will run around the block and deliver cold pools into Europe that get caught in the flow. The parallel being a case in point today.

However, will there be a scandi high or just a re strengthened sceuro ridge with the jet going over the top towards Svalbard? I'd say 50/50 on that at the moment although the models under estimation of the Russian ridge's strength is clear over the past 48 hours. Looking at where the modelling currently is, de bilt could look a lot colder than here under a gentle se flow. They could be sourcing dry air from Eastern Europe whilst ours is from the med. either way, even without cold here, for the time of year, I'd be happy with a strong sceuro or decent scandi (or even scrussian) block looking ahead mid dec onwards.

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Well Barry95 is still right about "Where's the mild"

ECM0-192.GIF?15-12

ECM1-192.GIF?15-12

The models are starting to suggest an absolute ripper of a southerly. Sometimes you just have to laugh. Given the ECM has a moderate southerly flow for a few straight days, we could be seeing temperatures reaching near record values for the time of the year.

Add to that that Euro/Scandi block is being seen as being at least a temporary feature across all the models (Day 5/6). Though only the ECM has it parked for the extra few days whilst the GFS/GEM break the block down and produce an area of heights more UK centred.

That said, the UKMO also looks like throwing the kitchen sink (warmth wise at us too)

UW144-21.GIF?15-05

Edited by Captain shortwave

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Looking through the individual GEFS this morning there are some decent runs in there if it's cold your after. Taking 300 hours as the comparison point (yes it's a long way out) there are some cold runs.

As this time point takes us closer to the end of the month there are more runs with decent cold pools associated. As always nothing is certain, But there is just a hint of a signal in the modelling upto 300 hours in my view so I certainly wouldn't be betting the house on the Atlantic this morning.

After high res ends on GFS I only really treat FI as just another ensemble member tbh

Jason

 

Yes,some decent northerlies amongst those ensembles this morning which were distinctly lacking last winter.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-3-1-360.png?0

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-5-1-288.png?0

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-17-1-360.png?0

 

 

Moscow ensemble watch re-initiated. :)

 

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Yes,some decent northerlies amongst those ensembles this morning which were distinctly lacking last winter.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-3-1-360.png?0

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-5-1-288.png?0

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-17-1-360.png?0

 

 

Moscow ensemble watch re-initiated. :)

 

attachicon.gifMT8_Moskau_ens.png

Yes,some decent northerlies amongst those ensembles this morning which were distinctly lacking last winter.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-3-1-360.png?0

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-5-1-288.png?0

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-17-1-360.png?0

 

 

Moscow ensemble watch re-initiated. :)

 

attachicon.gifMT8_Moskau_ens.png

I will have a number 3 if I may.. Nothing wrong with a little bit of eye candy on a Saturday morning and already we are seeing a little more interest than the whole of last winter.

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Just to re iterate that you won't get cold to the mid latitudes (us) unless you get warmth to the high latitudes. Europe and the eastern pacific seem to be a good source for that warmth over the past few weeks (re Aleutian trough/scandi ridge) and going forward. it's got to be somewhere and better it's us now than in winter proper ? without the warmth headed north (and associated waves), you would likely be looking at a stronger strat vortex and a worse outlook for winter cold spells.

We should all be happy to lose battles in November and win the war come jan/feb. The other way around probably leads to a cold spring - ugh! However, the current set up isn't really losing a battle - we're just laying out our troop formation so that when the time comes to strike, it can be over quickly.

I guess the search for a cold start to winter is down to the appalling excuse of last year - understandable but winter lasts for three months and proper cold never does. patience required.

 

 

Yes totally agree. I have been saying for days that the cold pattern on this amplified spell has passed us by. Now we just have to take the medicine and hope this repeating pattern of Azores ridging to Scandi continues. Unfortunately the Atlantic-Greenland ridge looking unlikely from the current PV daughter lobes. So we will get some smashing mild charts:

 

post-14819-0-29425000-1416039056_thumb.p post-14819-0-60591400-1416039080_thumb.p

 

With the Atlantic flow hitting the block, slowing and disrupting, the jets position will determine where the wetter weather is. The GFS solution is the tidiest with the Atlantic going over the top of the Azores/ScEuro block till late in FI where some split energy undercuts. The control is what is possible if all the boxes are ticked:

 

post-14819-0-65710400-1416039440_thumb.p

 

Though again 3-4 weeks down the line this would be preferable. So from the 12z's the trend for the Atlantic to be more SW to NE with heights over the UK continues. Good consensus on the London GEFS for 6-7 days of pressure around 1020mb from Wednesday next week:

 

post-14819-0-73936800-1416039724_thumb.g

 

After that anybodies guess.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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With the trend for a scandi high , there will be cold members on the ens as we see on the ops that small depressions will get through the gap where the sceuro ridge meets the arctic high (ne of Greenland). These will run around the block and deliver cold pools into Europe that get caught in the flow. The parallel being a case in point today.

However, will there be a scandi high or just a re strengthened sceuro ridge with the jet going over the top towards Svalbard? I'd say 50/50 on that at the moment although the models under estimation of the Russian ridge's strength is clear over the past 48 hours. Looking at where the modelling currently is, de bilt could look a lot colder than here under a gentle se flow. They could be sourcing dry air from Eastern Europe whilst ours is from the med. either way, even without cold here, for the time of year, I'd be happy with a strong sceuro or decent scandi (or even scrussian) block looking ahead mid dec onwards.

Perhaps, with the split vortex it will be less favourable to the strong jet going over the top of the block. My thinking is if we had a solid well formed vortex then we'd see the jet less prone to splits. With that vortex segment where it is now though, it ought to send lows spinning NE, just glancing the block (perhaps with a small amount of energy going underneath), rather than powering over the top. That in itself may help build the block further with the WAA that will result. If the vortex segment comes too far west, then no doubt the block will be under more pressure.

Would be nice to at least get a decent high nearby even if it's only to dry out the air. I can't take much more of this damp crud! :-)

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Morning all,
 
My knowledge is limited compared to the majority on here.I cant see any cold whilst we have high pressure as such over Europe though,sceuro highs seem give nothing but mild for the uk we need some lower heights digging in.Heres a chart  I hope doesn't verify,
ecm500.168.png
It will help with the strat vortex over Siberia only if it destroys it totally and dosnt relocate it closer to us.

I'd sooner see warmth over the states because that lobe over the Baffin island area looks a lot less intense to me.Surely the Siberian vortex is better where it is?.

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The GFSP shows pretty average temps if not mild at times especially in the South throughout most of the run, With bands of rain/showers spreading in from the West. It's only into the last few frames where something cooler is shown, With hints of blocking to the N/E of the UK, So "maybe" something more wintry as we enter Winter proper at Months end.

 

gfsnh-0-192.png?0gfsnh-6-192.png?0gfsnh-0-348.png?0

Edited by Polar Maritime

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heres a great way of seeing the direction of travel on the ecm ens two weeks away.

 

two charts showing the probability of SLP > 1030mb.

 

todays 00z                                                yesterdays 12z

 

post-6981-0-01733700-1416043402_thumb.pn                          post-6981-0-54276100-1416043394_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

one can see the movement west of the russian high. it may change in twelve hours. note the complete lack of any chance of a strong block directly to our north due to the likely direction of the northern split/or main jet towards svaalbard.

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With the trend for a scandi high , there will be cold members on the ens as we see on the ops that small depressions will get through the gap where the sceuro ridge meets the arctic high (ne of Greenland). These will run around the block and deliver cold pools into Europe that get caught in the flow. The parallel being a case in point today.

However, will there be a scandi high or just a re strengthened sceuro ridge with the jet going over the top towards Svalbard? I'd say 50/50 on that at the moment although the models under estimation of the Russian ridge's strength is clear over the past 48 hours. Looking at where the modelling currently is, de bilt could look a lot colder than here under a gentle se flow. They could be sourcing dry air from Eastern Europe whilst ours is from the med. either way, even without cold here, for the time of year, I'd be happy with a strong sceuro or decent scandi (or even scrussian) block looking ahead mid dec onwards.

BA...Scrussian???   That's gold.

Models really showing why a run or two cannot be 'relied' on.  That block to our east is far more robust than models gave credit for in recent days. 

 

BFTP

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One thing is for sure looking at things this morning - the Atlantic isn't going to come barrelling through, the ensembles have totally switched in remarkable fashion to a much drier pattern and the Atlantic simply has no chance of coming through that sort of blocking.

GEFS for London shows very low rain totals for the coming 2 weeks, a little more for the SW but some dry weather would be lovely given the saturation we've had recently.

Take that Atlantic

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