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Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond


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By day 8, Atlantic assault ihas been neutered by quite a margin. Back to a fairly slow moving pattern.

ECH1-192.GIF?14-0

We have another potential split over the Pole. I don't see the point is letting the Atlantic in as there is as much chance of it continuing for the foreseeable than change for something more positive.

Also the pattern for the weekend is a long way from snow. The air is a modified Atlantic flow and hence nowhere near cold enough. In fact temperatures are forecast to be in double figures over the weekend.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Good god the ecm has a stronger high across Scandinavia at 120 hours compared to the 12z 144 hours from yesterday! !yes bluearmy interestingly enough thats exactly what i was looking at!!

Which is why I say a LRF is anything after 7-10 days, the 144 from the UKMO is very different to what the 21:55 forecast was showing last night

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The only thing the models agree on is the PV chunk in Siberia, the ECM Atlantic force field holds strong, the GFS much keener on driving lows in.

 

The constant phasing of troughing near the UK with low heights near Greenland makes an undercut difficult, overall the juries out as to what to expect. The much vaunted PV return has imploded which is good to see.

 

Overall a somewhat confusing picture, it could be another stalemate for a while or the models could just deliver an undercut and we would be talking about something more interesting.

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At 240 I wouldn't say worrying

 

No, that was me trying to be ironic. The fact we have agreement at D10 was what that shocked me, not the agreed output!

 

My latter post told you my thoughts on the 12z; a fluid period of output, where the models are trying to get a grip on the upcoming pattern (GFS struggling as per SM's post).

 

Although ECM offers more of the same, block to the east and a disrupting slow Atlantic flow, I am easily bored and looking for something different:

 

D10: post-14819-0-96864500-1415991770_thumb.g

 

No doubt this continued ScEuro block will aid us in continued wave 1 warming so I suppose it will all work out in the end...

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Well, after the 12z output, we are left with even less clarification than before! Confusion reigns as to if and when the atlantic makes a breakthrough and if so, will it be a favourable breakthrough - undercut or unfavourable - over the top ? We are still asking these same questions because the stalemate continues.

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Looking at the last two runs the GEFS anomalies are not hugely different except for increasing the influence of HP from the south.

 

At T168 the Atlantic trough is pushed further east cutting of the Azores ridge. Thus the surface low pressure dominates with the Scandinavian HP in, well,Scandinavia. The jet still more or less zonal between the two Atlantic systems.

 

At T240 this reversed with Atlantic trough backtracking west and south allowing a ridge SW of the UK and at the same time the Scandinavian HP tends towards the NW. Thus more influence from HP over the UK with the low to the NW.

 

charts courtesy WxBell

 

EDIT

It must be said that NOAA isn't making as much of the ingress of HP and maintains a trough dominated Atlantic.

post-12275-0-19444900-1415995260_thumb.p

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post-12275-0-08095500-1415995751_thumb.g

post-12275-0-59173800-1415995758_thumb.g

Edited by knocker
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The GEFS ensembles are all over the place at +144hrs, forget about it day 7. Only agreement is the low bringing rain into the SW later on Tuesday although there's a lot variation even then at +96hrs-108hrs. And that it doesn't look cold any time soon.

Edited by Bobby
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As others have said, the block (ScEuro) could be tougher than it looks. The JMA update still had it holding on in week 3-4: 

 

post-14819-0-34015800-1415995256_thumb.p

 

When I  posted it yesterday it was not with much fanfare, as I was thinking the trend was for the Atlantic to break through. Anyway, just to reiterate what the more experienced posters have said, there it is, in its full glory, into the second week of December. And of course by then such a synoptic becomes far more interesting (cold wise) if it retrogresses, and the Atlantic undercuts, as the Continent would be a lot colder. 

 

No idea today which way it is going.

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ECM ens day 6

EDH1-144.GIF?14-0

Good support that the first Atlantic wave could be repelled.

As such it's maybe best to hold caution in respect to any further Atlantic incursions further down the line.

No good for cold in the near future, but again as others have said. It's best to keep the amplified pattern as at some point the dice will roll in our favour.

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I've moved a few post the the Model/Banter/Moan thread here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014/page-28#entry3069853. 

 

Let's please try and continue on following CS post, And discuss what the Model Outputs are showing. 

 

Thank's PM.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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ECM ens day 6

EDH1-144.GIF?14-0

Good support that the first Atlantic wave could be repelled.

As such it's maybe best to hold caution in respect to any further Atlantic incursions further down the line.

No good for cold in the near future, but again as others have said. It's best to keep the amplified pattern as at some point the dice will roll in our favour.

The models always seem to underestimate block resilience. This time it looks like a stronger mid-Atlantic ridge is holding back the onslaught rather than the Scandi high.

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Good post from Chino - cold conditions are hard to come by at this time of year, but what we do have is a set up highly conducive to laying foundations for something colder as we move through December.

 

I remember back to November 2009 which was dominated by a stubborn trough sat to the west producing copious rain and a PV not best placed but one taking a battering, the trigger to the change was the development of heights from the south quickly merging with heights to the NE..

 

Its a frustrating set up for those wanting something colder at present particularly given the lack of anything particularly chilly so far this autumn (mmm the same thing happened in 2009), but there are positive signals for increased chance of something much colder in December given the models are less than convinced of the atlantic steamrolling in at a time when it really normally should be and especially so with a lobe of the PV sat over west Greenland - its certainly not normal northern hemisphere service as we enter what is traditionally the most 'westerly' and disturbed period of the year.

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There is some cold hope in the models-

 

post-1235-0-63254000-1416003560_thumb.pn

 

When you start getting small shallow lows diving south with High pressure on the NE flanks then the chances increase that a ridge is thrown NE behind these lows- sending cold air south West...

 

Interesting....

 

S

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