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Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond


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thanks for that Paul, did they give any indication why? The parallel, if it is that, on the 500mb statistics for 6 days suggests it is doing much better than the original?

 

A handful of bugs that were found, which means a restart once they're fixed, and therefore a new 30 day period before going live apparently. 

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The MJO signal was to build a MLB close to the UK in the first week of December, so nice to see this possibility earlier: attachicon.gifgfs-0-336-2.png

 

Both GFS op and P kill the ScEuro high so little change there and that allows the omnipresent Azores/Atlantic ridge to build into the UK rather than the upper ridge over Europe. Certainly this scenario is even less likely to bring cold to the UK in the medium term, but given a choice of UK HP with the Atlantic on a SW to NE trajectory, or a westerly Atlantic, tonight's output will do it for me.

D16: attachicon.gifgfs-0-384-24.png

 

 

Again, thankfully this is day 16 (extreme fi) and will never verify :)

 

in the real world (reliable timeframe) there has been a massive upgrade in the last 24 hours if your looking for cold, the Atlantic has been told to get lost.

Edited by Barry95
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thanks for that Paul, did they give any indication why? The parallel, if it is that, on the 500mb statistics for 6 days suggests it is doing much better than the original?

 

Latest TWEET updates:

 

  SylvainTV

@meteociel Because of some bugs, NCEP will restart GFS 30days parallel evaluation. Implementation is rescheduled in January 2015 (at least)

12/11/2014 19:51

 

...

 

 

  paulythegun

the parallel GFS has performed well mid-range. It's now the #2 oper. model having leapfrogged over GEM, the Farmer's Almanac, and darts

13/11/2014 18:58

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I think both the GFS and GFS P might end up in the shredder this evening. They do seem very flat upstream and even though theres expected to be some de-amplification they're very progressive with this.

 

Theres quite an important difference between the UKMO at T144hrs and the GFS/GFS P over the mid west USA and this effects the dig of troughing out of western Greenland.

 

It also has a more developed shortwave in Arctic Canada, the GFS and its new just as flat bias off spring will just drive all the energy east.

 

If the ECM follows the UKMO then we get a chance of more digging south of that Atlantic troughing.

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I think both the GFS and GFS P might end up in the shredder this evening. They do seem very flat upstream and even though theres expected to be some de-amplification they're very progressive with this.

 

Theres quite an important difference between the UKMO at T144hrs and the GFS/GFS P over the mid west USA and this effects the dig of troughing out of western Greenland.

 

It also has a more developed shortwave in Arctic Canada, the GFS and its new just as flat bias off spring will just drive all the energy east.

 

If the ECM follows the UKMO then we get a chance of more digging south of that Atlantic troughing.

 

 

Hi Nick I've been following the models as closely as I can and I think the GFS has been the best over the last couple of weeks.

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Hi Nick I've been following the models as closely as I can and I think the GFS has been the best over the last couple of weeks.

It depends if you're looking at post T144hrs or before then, the ECM has been volatile T168hrs onwards but still is the best model before then. The ECM has already been proven correct with the low to the west of the UK, do you remember the others wanted to phase this and drive this over the top.

 

The GFS has a flat upstream bias and this has been noted by NCEP, the ECM past T168hrs tends to over amplify but bear in mind that what happens with this set up upto T144hrs will effect how much ridging we see near the UK and the angle of the Atlantic attack.

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Hi Nick I've been following the models as closely as I can and I think the GFS has been the best over the last couple of weeks.

if you look at this k it suggests differently, it is at 500mb and it is for the northern hemisphere so you could be correct if you have been keeping some kind of check at the surface on the models?

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

the new GFS( PRX), I think is doing better over its short spell being checked

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Again, thankfully this is day 16 (extreme fi) and will never verify :)

 

 

 

never say never!... ok its unlikely to be as the current output suggests, but perhaps something similar? outputs that far out are inaccurate mostly, but must be of some use or they wouldnt be produced? of course this applies to any weather type fi suggests.

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Hi Nick I've been following the models as closely as I can and I think the GFS has been the best over the last couple of weeks.

 

No, but improving on the parallel:

 

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

The ECM continues to pwn the others (as I believe the kidz say) in the short to mid term. 

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^^^ It's all a bit worrying. After being the poster boy for ScEuro longevity the GEM at D10 is also similar to the GFS op & P tonight!

 

post-14819-0-97391800-1415985042_thumb.p

 

Being fair to it, the GEM was the first to latch onto this possibility, on the 12z last night: post-14819-0-66539900-1415985224_thumb.p

 

 

 

 

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Hi Nick I've been following the models as closely as I can and I think the GFS has been the best over the last couple of weeks.

 

Why, how, where and when?  :cc_confused:

 

This is model output discussion so a bit more analysis would be most welcome.  :)

 

Apologies, if you are NEW to the MOD thread and more can be learnt from following the learning area (linked below) of these wonderful forums as I still pop in there myself from time to time.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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never say never!... ok its unlikely to be as the current output suggests, but perhaps something similar? outputs that far out are inaccurate mostly, but must be of some use or they wouldnt be produced? of course this applies to any weather type fi suggests.

 

FI is looking for trends, if day 16 had been consistent in showing a certain weather type then it's fine, but it hasn't.

 

Day 16 yesterday:

 

gfsnh-2014111312-0-192.png?12

 

 

Day 16 today:

 

gfsnh-0-384.png?12

 

Pointless...

 

Theres a reason the ECM only goes out to day 10.

Edited by Barry95
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It depends if you're looking at post T144hrs or before then, the ECM has been volatile T168hrs onwards but still is the best model before then. The ECM has already been proven correct with the low to the west of the UK, do you remember the others wanted to phase this and drive this over the top.

 

The GFS has a flat upstream bias and this has been noted by NCEP, the ECM past T168hrs tends to over amplify but bear in mind that what happens with this set up upto T144hrs will effect how much ridging we see near the UK and the angle of the Atlantic attack.

 

Yes a wobbly GEFS suite tonight. I think the model hasn't got a clue beyond the date you highlight.

 

D9 and it is not a case of what clusters there are but what can you rule out? Not a lot is the answer: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=216

 

The spread at D9 is the most damming: post-14819-0-84051100-1415986241_thumb.p

 

I would say wait for the ECM to clarify things, but that may not be very good advice, bearing in mind its recent performance.

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The UKMO was a pleasant surprise, some fine and potentially sunny weather from that day 6 chart.

Not totally unsupported either with the GEM offering a little more resistance 

gem-0-144.png?12

gem-0-168.png?12

Not exactly the kind of weather many chase for at this time of year, but mid-teens and sunny spells might be a welcome change after a couple of weeks of above average rainfall.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Keep the sceuro or not? That seems to be the question posed by some. Tbh, whenever we get a sceuro ridge, it tends to hang around, we get wet and people get fed up with the stand off.

With a view to the winter, I would rather keep it and drive the trop waves into the strat as the Atlantic bumps into it. It's demise could well bring a lee northerly as the depressions get to our East but any cool flow would be temporary and soon the continent will begin to cool markedly under a slack regime so any continental flow will feel more seasonal.

If we retain the sceuro ridge, we do have possibilities of a join up with the Arctic high, should upstream patterns allow. All In all, I would rather see it remain in situ. It won't be there forever.

Would it not be better to lose it? I think too many people are willing a greenland high to happen too early. The latter part of the ECM has the 'sceuro' pushed away. (Cant post charts on phone) This allows the atlantic through (the horror!) But it also allows cold air to flood into europe building a cold pool, which is what we need . (No point in winning the jackpot if the pot's empty!)

Despite some saying the vortex is strengthening, it will probably appear to and let it do so. The damage is already done to it by all the other factors at play. It will of course try to strengthen at this time of year. Thats what it does. However the effects of the strat should (in simple terms) cause it to blow itself apart in the process. People are constantly making ill-informed assumptions about the state of the vortex and making comparisons to last winter. There are never any guarantees but we are in a completely different position to last year as we approach winter ( to those who seem to keep forgetting- it is still autumn...)

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notice how far west 1020mb of the scandi ridge has pushed between T96 and T72 - yesterday was on the norwegian coast. today is approaching iceland. granted that the atlantic is nowhere near accelerating at this timescale, but when it does, where will the blocking be??

 

and bobbydog, i would never swap a block for the atlantic. there are plenty of ways of getting the continent cold with a  sceuro ridge to begin with. and a damn sight colder than it would get with an atlantic sourced airmass. anyway, the models are backign west again so by the time we get the atlantic steamign in, lets hope its either an undercut of the sceuro which works for us or a digging of the atlantic torugh which will blow up a scandi high. (could well work for us if we can drop some low uppers into the mix from the trough the other side of the ridge

Edited by bluearmy
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Good god the ecm has a stronger high across Scandinavia at 120 hours compared to the 12z 144 hours from yesterday! !yes bluearmy interestingly enough thats exactly what i was looking at!!

Edited by shaky
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Yes I think I'd rather just go through a spell of zonal weather and push things through.. clear off the energy to the E/NE and then see what happens upstream. Some ghastly charts this evening. Warm air all the way from N. Africa on the UKMO +144, give me cool zonality any day over that.

 

UW144-7_bzc1.GIF

 

Interestingly on Monday there's growing agreement on a low moving W bringing some fairly heavy rain across the country from the E.  Not often that happens, if only we had very cold uppers to our E...

 

GFSP, GEM. Uppers not too far off..

 

72-102P_ysw3.GIF  gemfr-7-78_kpw3.png

 

81-7P_bag2.GIF

Edited by Bobby
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Ecm is changing like the weather : I wish we got two runs in a row with a bit of consistency. The 12z is very different at 120hr than00z:-bizarre?

Edited by snowice
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Yes I think I'd rather just go through a spell of zonal weather and push things through.. clear off the energy to the E/NE and then see what happens upstream. Some ghastly charts this evening. Warm air all the way from N. Africa on the UKMO +144, give me cool zonality any day over that.

 

UW144-7_bzc1.GIF

 

Interestingly on Monday there's growing agreement on a low moving W bringing some fairly heavy rain across the country from the E.  Not often that happens, if only we had very cold uppers to our E...

 

GFSP, GEM. Uppers not too far off..

 

72-102P_ysw3.GIF  gemfr-7-78_kpw3.png

 

81-7P_bag2.GIF

drop those uppers by another degreee or 2 and with light winds and a flow of the continent then evaporative cooling comes into play and maybe turns that rain into snow and everyone is happy:)!!
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