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Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond


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Second link okay John but can't seem able to open the first for some reason.

opens at bottom left of screen or rather shown there, it is a pdf file, Ill try and get the initial link for you or anyone else

 

ha ta to Im d who has done it for me

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Mucka I'm not sure of the relevance of those outputs in terms of the divergence tonight. The ECM departs from the GFS at T120hrs.

 

As for the later ECM output well into FI its a longshot especially because of the recent wild swings of the ECM past T168hrs however for the timebeing I'm more interested in seeing how the NWP resolves the trough disruption before then.

 

If high pressure holds near Svalbard then its pretty important to see how far east those low heights get near Greenland.

 

Not much relevance Nick except that ECM has been struggling somewhat of late.

This should be resolved pretty quickly though as it is in the mid range. I will be interested to see how many of ECM ensemble suite push that low South 144/168 but regardless I expect it will have either been dropped or garnered support by tomorrow evenings runs.

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Well all the models continue to show stubborn ridging towards Scandinavia,the ECM op being,as seems usual these days,the most keen.

Unfortunately for us it doesn't,change our Atlantic outlook with lows becoming slow moving near the UK keeping us pretty wet and changeable and mainly on the mild side.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=1&archive=0

Looking at today's runs a proper Easterly looks a real outsider even from the ECM where the best we could see from that could be a mid latitude high as it warms out the UK trough.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

With the main bulk of the PV so close to our nw it does look like this period of Atlantic weather goes on for a while yet.

Edited by phil nw.
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yes wave 2 has failed, even though it's barely started yet............... :nea:

 

Don't worry. The OPI reanalysis is looking very good for cold: post-14819-0-65144400-1415912712_thumb.j

 

Put this index to the test for future reference if nothing else.

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Signs of a change upstream over the east Pacific looking at the models, with the large scale upper pattern that brough the high latitude block fromed from wavenumber 1 breaking down and a more active Pacific jet firing up across the Pacific northwest, this ties in with EPO forecast to go from a -ve phase to a +ve one.

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

 

This has the implication of the cold vortex eventually relaxing its grip over Canada, central and eastern USA. The model operationals and ens seem to gather n the idea of pushin the core of low heights/cold vortex  over E Canada moving out across NW Atlantic and Greenland, which may seem like bad news, but if blocking over northern Europe holds it could amplify a trough over the mid-Atlantic with WAA helping strengthening blocking to the east further, perhaps creating a block over Scandi.This is one possible outcome of the pattern change coming upstream in next 11-15 days ... not to say it will pan out like that.

 

But wouldn't bank on a prolonged bout of Atlantic lows coming our way.

The two Nick's in tandem here. GFS p uncannily similar to ECM op tonight - food for thought!

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Key feature of models today compared to yesterday is the toning down of a sudden atlantic onslaught next week - very much I suspect a response to uncertainties regarding pattern evolutions over Northern America i.e. the position and strength of trough action off the eastern seaboard.

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What is the GFS parallel run and is it more accurate than the regular GFS?

It's the new operational gfs which replaces the gfs next month. It should be more accurate although current stats vary from a bit better to almost in the Ukmo/ECM league. (Unclear at the moment)

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Signs of a change upstream over the east Pacific looking at the models, with the large scale upper pattern that brough the high latitude block fromed from wavenumber 1 breaking down and a more active Pacific jet firing up across the Pacific northwest, this ties in with EPO forecast to go from a -ve phase to a +ve one.

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

 

This has the implication of the cold vortex eventually relaxing its grip over Canada, central and eastern USA. The model operationals and ens seem to gather n the idea of pushin the core of low heights/cold vortex  over E Canada moving out across NW Atlantic and Greenland, which may seem like bad news, but if blocking over northern Europe holds it could amplify a trough over the mid-Atlantic with WAA helping strengthening blocking to the east further, perhaps creating a block over Scandi.This is one possible outcome of the pattern change coming upstream in next 11-15 days ... not to say it will pan out like that.

 

But wouldn't bank on a prolonged bout of Atlantic lows coming our way.

Thanks for a more studied and professional look at the model output 10 days + on, rather than some of the more immature, wind up posts from others these past few days.

A dose of considered insight from one of the more respected contributors on NW.

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We love an easterly chase on this forum.

 

Well you will like UKMO then because it doesn't phase the low West of Ireland

 

UW144-21.GIF?14-05

 

Which means last nights ECM has a hint of support.

 

GFS and its parallel both phase the low though so bring the Atlantic through.

 

gfs-0-144.png?0

 

GEM is somewhere between and brings the Atlantic through though GFS parallel and GEM have the Azores high ridging in quite strongly so keeping the storm track to the North of the UK in the main.

 

gemnh-0-144.png?12gemnh-0-240.png?12

 

So just a hint of support for last nights ECM from UKMO so eagerly awaiting this mornings ECM to see if A) it still doesn't phase the low in the mid term and B) it sticks with the slider to our NE around day 9

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The monopoly (Rain edition) has made us pass "Go" again

ECH1-168.GIF?14-12

Ridging towards Greenland with low pressure hitting the buffers just west of the UK. The last frames will probably look familiar, as that low will track very similarly to ones we are experiencing now. That ridge to our east isn't going anywhere, be it towards the pole or flattened by the Atlantic express. Day 8 is pretty horrid for the UK, heavy rain and strong winds.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Well well shades of january 2013 there!! Block across the Arctic and greenland strong enough to disrupt and send them sliding underneath on the ecm!! Clear split aswell!! As far as phasing energy at 144 hours! ! Its in between gfs and ukmo! !ukmo is better! ! Ber in mind ukmo was never goin for strong northern blocking over the last week and gfs/ecm were yet it has been proved correct! It would be our damn luck for the ukmo to be wrong now when it looks better for cold and i wouldn't put it past!!

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airpressure.png

 

airpressure.png

Now I'm interested and targeting the backend of Nov, why? Because this is my target area for 'sudden switch to cold' and has been since backend of summer.  Now these charts aren't here to say THEY ARE RIGHT!  No they are to show what I'm generally thinking in this greyish/brownish mush matter of mine.  I've been looking at a NW/SE axis of LP movement bringing in a N to E quadrant flow.  This shows what 'could' happen.  I'm focusing on this sort of period..

 

Great posts by Tamara and Big Steve earlier on.....AO to 'just relax'?

 

BFTP

 

Mmmm. Long way out but nice to see

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014111400/gfsnh-0-384.png?0

 

Reminds me of something a few Decembers ago.The vortex completely shifted east

Edited by winterof79
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GFS (p) shows the sort of pattern I am hoping for in FI, the PV moving E into Scandi and Europe with strong ridging behind and only 384h!  :pardon:

 

gfsnh-0-384.png?0

 

I dare say attention will be on the FI antics of ECM again though.

 

ECH1-240.GIF?14-12

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That's a long way out isn't it ? The reality is wet windy and mild I think ! 

 

Yes as he says along way out, But maybe cool enough for Snow for the North on a Pm flow..

 

gfsnh-2-372.png?0gfsnh-6-324.png?0

Edited by Polar Maritime
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