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Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond


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Consistent indicator of a warm Spanish plume type flow at the end of the High Res run on the GFS 18z

Rtavn1802.gif

Goes on to give us a nice Bartlett as the month progresses

 

Rtavn2881.gif

Northern blocking having gone up in smoke. :closedeyes:

Edited by Purga
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Good to see people not bothering with the lame duck GFS anymore*, the parallel looks to be much more consistent. Not surprising given its greater resolution. Still dodgy after 240h but what do you expect at that range!? Bloomin' slow coming out though....

 

* I'm only using it to cross check the 10hpa strat temperatures, that being more stable.

Edited by ukpaul
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Consistent indicator of a warm Spanish plume type flow at the end of the High Res run on the GFS 18z

Rtavn1802.gif

Goes on to give us a nice Bartlett as the month progresses

 

Rtavn2881.gif

Northern blocking having gone up in smoke. :closedeyes:

Nice and Bartlett..... Do those words go together in winter?

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Consistent indicator of a warm Spanish plume type flow at the end of the High Res run on the GFS 18z

Rtavn1802.gif

Goes on to give us a nice Bartlett as the month progresses

 

Rtavn2881.gif

Northern blocking having gone up in smoke. :closedeyes:

Next run or two, this idea will no doubt be binned off. Models are all over the place at the moment. 

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Nice and Bartlett..... Do those words go together in winter?

Reverse psychology and tongue in cheek - they're an abomination as is the 'Sceuro High' (whatever the heck that is??) so beloved of BA. :angry:

Edited by Purga
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So called talk of bartletts and northern blocking gone up in smoke, just a little reminder of how things can and will change very quickly!!!

 

Looking at this on the 16th Nov 2010, below showed the 10 day with a S/W with no sign of any cold.

 

gfs-2010111118-0-108_fhj3.pnggfs-2010111100-0-384.png?0

 

But this what happened -8 to -12 uppers and SNOW ...... :cold:

 

gfs-2010112700-0-6_qph2.png

Very true and the model run showing the High centered over parts of Europe (not a Bart) likely to be not there on next op run. So much flipping and flopping across all models should be taken with pinch of salt. The whole Hemispherical pattern is where the attention should lie. Vortex being out under further pressure and not becoming organised.. Could be case of patience required. With getting us in on the cold action!

In the meantime bands of rain moving across the country and tomorrow sees a risk of thunderstorms for parts of England and Wales thanks to a trough from the SW. Something for everyone in summary, for now!

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quite a few recent posts removed with have nothing to do with the thread title

 

hit the report button please for posts with either off topic or 'dubious' content and let the site team deal with rather than taking issues into your hands and derailing the thread......ta!

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From what i can see the gfs might be westerly dominated but not its long lost brother and the one that we should be using the gfs parallel! ! Thats showing lows sliding under an arcitc/icelandic black! ! Fast forward ukmo and that will probably do the same if not then probably be a frosty high! ! Ecm still coming out!!

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I think we need to reset the pattern in order to get some colder weather, the heights that have been sat to the north have never been set up to deliver for the UK. Both GFS's don't show any particular strong polar vortex. I think WAA up into Greenland will be the way to go, blocking off the westerlies and setting up a more viable cold period. This is what we should be looking for in FI charts ..... That's my guess anyway.

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The sceuro high has been a lot more useful term than Bartlett over the past few years. The dreaded Bartlett has become a winter rarity. To be fair, the sceuro is hardly a friend of coldies but does have the advantage of sending WAA into the arctic, thus promising something better going forward.

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From what i can see the gfs might be westerly dominated but not its long lost brother and the one that we should be using the gfs parallel! ! Thats showing lows sliding under an arcitc/icelandic black! ! Fast forward ukmo and that will probably do the same if not then probably be a frosty high! ! Ecm still coming out!!

Yes - and is like the GFS

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A very unsettled and wet run this morning by the GFSP, As Low pressure systems push in off the Atlantic. A continuing trend of recent days.

 

gfsnh-0-192.png?0gfsnh-0-300.png?0gfsnh-0-372.png?0

Edited by Polar Maritime
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So the models this morning all seem to be going for a mild westerly set up for the foreseeable future. Think we might have to wait till early dec now for any cold spells. Because looking at the gfs and ECM this morning it's looking very Atlantic dominated

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Ohh dear :-(

 

Not what I wanted to see this morning, the Atlantic squeezes through and then what follows is very reminisent of this time last year, I hope the trend reverses as we still have time for that to happen, but it's not what cold and snow lovers wanted to see tbh. 

 

Still it's worth remembering that it's only Mid November so we are still well and truly in Autumn, it's all about taking opportunities when you have them to get snow and cold in the UK and right now we have an opportunity to at the very least get cold air to our East and North, ready to tap into, but if this mornings GFS proves to be onto something then even that will have to be put on ice (pardon the pun), chances are we'll get more opportunities this year than last year though.

 

All to play for and it is only the 12th November, so let's keep that in mind and be realistic with our hopes.

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It seems inevitable that the models will back away from a solution only to show it again a few days down the line. We've seen that dozens of times.

 

But, I'd rather we reset the pattern and then waited until there was actually some cold air to tap in to.

 

The easterly shown until now, was sucking up some stupidly warm air,  even if it'd happened, there would have maybe been frost at best.

 

For what it's worth, the polar vortex still isn't organised, even right out in FI.

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