Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[tinybill]

The best thing about the ECM if it verifies is that yet another Daily Express ridiculous weather story implodes!

 

I think a spell of quietish weather would be welcome for many and the flow would become progressively colder,  ordinarily we might be waiting for the high to sink as the PV took on a menacing tone to the north but theres always a chance that we might see eventual retrogression of the high as the PV is still split and reluctant to set up in its normal winter location.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

you  might  joke  but after  say    192  hr  its looking to get very wet and by  nov 27 the continent  is looking like it could be heading for the freezer!!!

[knocker]

Just for fun the T1534 at T240. Away WAAaaa

Edited November 11, 2014 by knocker

[Banbury]

The best thing about the ECM if it verifies is that yet another Daily Express ridiculous weather story implodes!

 

I think a spell of quietish weather would be welcome for many and the flow would become progressively colder,  ordinarily we might be waiting for the high to sink as the PV took on a menacing tone to the north but theres always a chance that we might see eventual retrogression of the high as the PV is still split and reluctant to set up in its normal winter location.

Quite often find that a 'boring' HP sits over us but then turns us colder and colder , be more than happy with that . PV hopefully looks disjointed as we speak so not enough of a threat...................yet

[Banbury]

Ecm and gfs at T+192 . Ecm is keen to bring a pressure rise from the Northeast ,gfs not. Plenty of cold air to tap into ,but be patient, the blocking is still there  Still early days for real cold. for the Uk, look at November/ December 2010, perfect winter synoptics so early on, but it peaked to early with the main winter months of January and February devoid of anything remotely wintry.    

Yes indeed , we all remember how good Dec 2010 was but the following two months were woeful but forgotten due to the fact of the record breaking spell.

[blizzard81]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

you  might  joke  but after  say    192  hr  its looking to get very wet and by  nov 27 the continent  is looking like it could be heading for the freezer!!!

Nick was referring to the ECM, not the GFS.

[ANYWEATHER]

Quite often find that a 'boring' HP sits over us but then turns us colder and colder , be more than happy with that . PV hopefully looks disjointed as we speak so not enough of a threat...................yet

Depends on where the high pressure builds. If it builds from the south its often got a lot of moisture and warmth with it and it will often be cloudy and mild, conversely , if high pressure builds from the north, little in the way of warmth and moisture so more sunshine and cold and frosty weather at night.

[Barry12]

Hmmm , I have watched the Sunday forecast in the past and sat waiting for Snow to fall on the following Friday and seen absolutely nothing, but it is all about opinions as you say.

 

Mushyman has a valid point

 

Forecasting snow is a completely different thing, it can be hard to forecast 24 hours in advance.

 

Anyway, better get back on topic...

[492]

Quite often find that a 'boring' HP sits over us but then turns us colder and colder , be more than happy with that . PV hopefully looks disjointed as we speak so not enough of a threat...................yet

High pressure sitting across the UK in November can often result in colder conditions and is perhaps more likely than deep cold reaching us from the NE..   

[IDO]

Again the ECM op is a bit of an outlier compared to the mean:

 

 D10 mean anomaly:  

 

NOAA 8-14 D: 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Banbury]

Depends on where the high pressure builds. If it builds from the south its often got a lot of moisture and warmth with it and it will often be cloudy and mild, conversely , if high pressure builds from the north, little in the way of warmth and moisture so more sunshine and cold and frosty weather at night.

Of course I am referring to the current set up which would favour it getting chillier by the day, I for one would be quite happy to see the HP sit over us to give some seasonal weather

[bobbydog]

yes quite boring HP weather being forecast for this time of year. dull easterlies etc.

 

 

not what we really want to see, is it?

 

 

 

 

hmm..... page 62.....

[Purga]

12z ENS keep the same story going, above average uppers and continuing unsettled with a faint chance of something colder from the odd rogue runs

 

[Weathizard]

I always find looking past day 7 or t168 for exact patterns really not worth the time, use the ensemble suites to find trends but other than that operationals can swing wildly from run to run.

Looking at the GFS 12z suite after the 18/19th there is a real split, we could end up with anything from a 970mb low pressure system to a massive 1040mb high pressure cell slap bang on top of us, the latter perhaps being the more likely at this stage, and that may not be a bad thing given the levels or rain coming this next week.

The irony is even if we had the perfect output from where we are now I can't see us getting the significant cold people want in the next fortnight as the cold pooling just isn't there at the moment. Let's get the cold pooling in place then hope we get another opportunity for HLB.

[knocker]

The NOAA and GEFs anomalies painting a similar picture at T240 but the extended period appears very fluid with the HP to the east subsiding. In the earlier time frame (240) weakish HP over the UK with above average temps and the PV over Russia. Later with a continuation of the meridional flow best left until I've consulted Joan the Wad.

Charts courtesy WxBell

 

 

[bluearmy]

given the the swings back and forth of the modelling over the past week (especially the ops and over the polar field), perhaps a moment to settle on the constant features

Blocking north of Alaska

Upper ridging into e Greenland (generally linked to high heights to our ne)

Troughing to our sw

West Siberian vortex

fitting the rest together causes the issues. Tbh, these features haven't changed much over the past week and may well all be in situ in two weeks time.

Edited November 11, 2014 by bluearmy

[IDO]

 

The CFS MJO suggests more trough driven weather, with the anomalous low to the west and heights to the east, till early December. Not dissimilar to current forecast charts:

 

Composites:

 

 

 

Then looking hopeful for heights to build over the UK. So seeing this sort of setup in the backend of FI may not be a surprise.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I cant post further pics again, happy with the overall development of ECM....

then you look at the GFS in comparison even to itself, and it shows that FI is really FI and well up in the air.   Are we going to get HP nearby or are we going to get the SW cyclonic MetO flow 

 

BFTP

Edited November 11, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[blizzard81]

Again the ECM op is a bit of an outlier compared to the mean:

 

ECM101-240-4.GIF  D10 mean anomaly: EDM101-240-3.GIF EDM1-240-17.GIF

 

NOAA 8-14 D: 814day.03 (11).gif

The ECM ensemble mean charts show the intensity of the vortex on the Canadian side weakening quite markedly towards the 10 day mark. Will be keeping a close eye on that one.

[SMU]

Evening All-

 

Its been a bit of a blank 2 days, things seemingly remaining stationary with to much variation in the NH theme from all models, the GEM/ JMA tonight go for more amplification around 168 ish where as the ECM is angled to for towards NE over Greenland at 168 to generate any higher level blocking.

 

As it stands after the initial pulse of High pressure setting up over Scandi the status Quo remains for a few days after that-  average to slightly below uppers after 144 & a chilly surface flow if the ECM is to believed, or slightly warmer if we get more of a southerly flow,

 

Nothing to worry about at the moment, my expectation is still early 20's of November for the pattern change & the possible 4 weeks touted by the MET office source ( all be it written fantastically ) looks a bit long in terms of timelines......

 

S

[shaky]

Evening All-

 

Its been a bit of a blank 2 days, things seemingly remaining stationary with to much variation in the NH theme from all models, the GEM/ JMA tonight go for more amplification around 168 ish where as the ECM is angled to for towards NE over Greenland at 168 to generate any higher level blocking.

 

As it stands after the initial pulse of High pressure setting up over Scandi the status Quo remains for a few days after that-  average to slightly below uppers after 144 & a chilly surface flow if the ECM is to believed, or slightly warmer if we get more of a southerly flow,

 

Nothing to worry about at the moment, my expectation is still early 20's of November for the pattern change & the possible 4 weeks touted by the MET office source ( all be it written fantastically ) looks a bit long in terms of timelines......

 

S

to be fair Steve it seems to me there's more of a split on the mean charts between 168 and 216 hours than the ecm op surprisingly! ! Maybe the op is being too progressive! !

[Robbie Garrett]

Looks like at 240hrs, quite a lot warmer over Greenland than normal according to the NCEP.  NCEP also goes for a blocked out Arctic. It also shows blocking over Europe with the UK on the edge with blocking to our north.  Potentially anything that does change will be very quickly, and I can't wait for the models to start showing an emerging pattern change.  Just had a read over at the Strat thread and it looks like anything cold/snow worthwhile is going to be mid-to late December.  How festive!!

 

 

#

 

[Cloud 10]

to be fair Steve it seems to me there's more of a split on the mean charts between 168 and 216 hours than the ecm op surprisingly! ! Maybe the op is being too progressive! !

 

The day 10 ECM op run does look out of kilter with the ensemble mean which doesn't

happen very often these days.

 

op....  mean..

 

 

NOAA seem very confident in the model output in their discussions tonight,and guess who model of the day

goes to?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

Edited November 11, 2014 by Cloud 10

[SMU]

The GFS p - (PUB)

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014111118/gfsnh-0-156.png?18

 

has moved towards the ECM with heights to the North of the UK, however is more amplified ( like I referred to with the GEM/JMA blend) over western Greenland.

 

18z PUB (p) looks like the best case scenario out to 180 with a stiff easterly making it feel chilly

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014111118/gfsnh-0-162.png?18

 

S

[Thundery wintry showers]

Lots of northern blocking at the moment, but not favourably positioned to bring anything snowy to the British Isles with the Scandinavian high and the lows to the SW pumping up relatively warm air from the south-east.

With low pressure close to the south-west of the country until Friday, it's an unsettled and fairly mild picture, with some sunny intervals and showers likely for most of us tomorrow and then some more general rain and overcast skies for most of us on Thursday and more especially Friday.

 

With low pressure slackening over the UK during the weekend and a deeper low passing through the English Channel, the weekend looks set to be quieter for most of us, generally dry with some sunny spells although easterly winds will most likely bring cloud in off the North Sea for eastern Scotland and NE England, especially on Sunday, and the low to the south may bring some rain near to the south coast.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20141111/12/ecm500.120.png

 

Into next week it looks to me like the ECMWF operational run is overdoing the easterlies (which aren't particularly cold anyway), and the more likely outcome is a continued stand-off between high pressure to the NE and low pressure to the SW with temperatures near average, perhaps a little below at times in the north and a little above in the south.

Edited November 11, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Cloud 10]

Was just thinking what a strong looking high at 192 hrs on the 18z P around Iceland,which then deflates like a burst balloon two frames later.