Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[shaky]

Better 12z run!! More of a split and heights are slightly higher across greenland!dont think this is sorted just yet! !

[MR EXTREMES]

although the para is not as bad at the same time frame gfs para 138hr

Edited November 11, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Barry12]

Day 7 looks better on the 12z, polar vortex lobes still split

 

Edited November 11, 2014 by Barry95

[gottolovethisweather]

Meantime back in the real world the ENS paint the usual picture of above average 850hPa temps and lots of rain although things could be drying out somewhat in time - AND - there are a few colder runs appearing in FI land, the mean is still above average.

 

We will need to see more of the colder runs appearing and also coming more into the reliable timeframe - for the time being though it's 'business as usual'.

 

Yes Purga, we are but up to t+144 with the current run, incidentally not the one you've posted and its as you were. The focus for me however and for the majority of folk in here is as to what happens at t+168 onwards as this is when the progged Easterly (granted its weak affair) takes effect.

Edited November 11, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[MR EXTREMES]

GFS 12z shows a much more southerly tracking low in the North Atlantic than the 06z before, leaving a bit of space for high pressure near the Greenland/East Canada area.. Not really expecting anything to come from it though as all the pros seem to think mild and unsettled will win in the end.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif

i agree didnt see this run coming from the gfs

nice 168

and the gfs para agrees

the para gfs is if not even better than its older brother nice

Edited November 11, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Barry12]

i agree didnt see this run coming from the gfs

nice 168

and the gfs para agrees

the para gfs is if not even better than its older brother nice

 

The old GFS looks better than the para, more of an Easterly flow rather than a south Easterly, and the Atlantics about to destroy the block on the para.

Edited November 11, 2014 by Barry95

[Mucka]

UKMO backing this mornings ECM with the shortwave spoiler which I didn't really expect to see. 

 

 

GFS parallel doesn't make so much of it and so is better with some decent trough disruption but unfortunately the pattern upstream is still not amplified enough.

 

Edited November 11, 2014 by Mucka

[MR EXTREMES]

ukmo says nope im gonna carry on teasing and does not even get close to the gfs idea even at 144

gfs 144

para gfs 144

[Barry12]

ECM will be interesting, does it stick with the shortwave low or get rid of it?

[shaky]

ukmo says nope im gonna carry on teasing and does not even get close to the gfs idea even at 144

gfs 144

para gfs 144

to be fair peeps the ukmo to my eyes looks pretty much the same as the gfs run!! That low in the Atlantic very slightly further east but pretty much the same thing! ! Its a fantastic start to the evening runs cos i was not expecting them to bring back the split and heights so aggressively! ! Just goes to show this aint over yet!! Over to the ecm...

[johnholmes]

ECM will be interesting, does it stick with the shortwave low or get rid of it?

 

May I ask where is this depression, short wave as you call it please?

It really would help folk, especially new ones, if you used some charts to illustrate your remarks?

thanks

[mountain shadow]

The one South East of Greenland John.

[johnholmes]

The one South East of Greenland John.

 

ah, will investigate, assuming it is on the GFS output?

[johnholmes]

The one South East of Greenland John.

 

What the one shown from about 96h as a developing and deepening low coming off the eastern seaboard of Canada and USA?

[Purga]

Stongingly mild air approaching us from the south at the end of the reliable tieframe on the12z GFS

Low teens to start

Then warmer

Meantime towards the end of the run cold air into Scandinavia

But will never reach us

 

GFS Parallel stays toasty right to the end

 

 

Is it going to be one of those winters where all of N America and Europe are plunged into the freezer and the UK remains just out of range of the cold and stays damp and mild? I wouldn't bet against it!

Edited November 11, 2014 by Purga

[johnholmes]

sTONKINGLY MILD AIR APPROACHING USStongingly mild air approaching us from the south at the end of the reliable tieframe on the12z GFS

 

Low teens to start

 

Then warmer

 

 

Meantime towards the end of the run cold air into Scandinavia

 

But will never reach us

Is it going to be one of those winters where all of N America and Europe are plunged into the freezer and the UK remains just out of range of the cold and stays damp and mild? I wouldn't bet against it!

well at least Purga you show the charts you feel show the air you so strongly describe. It is of course one run and unless this 12z run corresponds both to previous 12z and in the closer time frame to other runs on GFS along with EC and Met then I suggest it may not be all that reliable.

[Barry12]

May I ask where is this depression, short wave as you call it please?

It really would help folk, especially new ones, if you used some charts to illustrate your remarks?

thanks

 

I did try, but it said the file extension is not allowed when I tried to post a chart from paint. I'm talking about the low to the south of Greenland that Steve Murr mentioned last night.

[johnholmes]

I did try, but it said the file extension is not allowed when I tried to post a chart from paint. I'm talking about the low to the south of Greenland that Steve Murr mentioned last night.

At what time are you referring to it Barry please?

[Barry12]

At what time are you referring to it Barry please?

 

It's at day 5 on the UKMO:

 

 

The shortwave just of the southern tip of greenland.

 

 

The ECM is the chart Steve Murr posted last night, highlighting the shortwave.

Edited November 11, 2014 by Barry95

[Cheshire Freeze]

Is it going to be one of those winters where all of N America and Europe are plunged into the freezer and the UK remains just out of range of the cold and stays damp and mild? I wouldn't bet against it!

Oh of course it is! Didn't you know you can Extrapolate a whole season's weather 3 months ahead just by using the FI of one GFS run?? Nevermind the plethora of other factors which could drastically alter the forecast path at relatively short notice, I'm sure they won't matter a jot!

 

Edited November 11, 2014 by Polar Maritime
As much as we all agree, I've edited it out to keep the peace in here.

[IDO]

At D10 the GFS op and Parallel finally agree:    

 

GFS P spotted this two runs before the op, and assuming it is the right outcome, then it is a good sign going forward.

 

Timing issues with GEM, though they have indeed changed from this morning's output and are in line with the GFS 12z's:

 

 

FI on the GFS op is wet, breezy and feeling cool. The GFS P is similar but sends a cold pool to our west and with the block still to our east, not brilliant as we herald in December:

 

 

 

 

 

[johnholmes]

It's at day 5 on the UKMO:

 

 

The shortwave just of the southern tip of greenland.

 

 

The ECM is the chart Steve Murr posted last night, highlighting the shortwave.

 

thanks Barry for the explanation

Just a personal thing with me but the term is bandied around far more than the definition warrants in my view but that is probably just me.

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/144#Shortwave

Is a good explanation of the term.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Stongingly mild air approaching us from the south at the end of the reliable tieframe on the12z GFS

Low teens to start

Then warmer

Meantime towards the end of the run cold air into Scandinavia

But will never reach us

Is it going to be one of those winters where all of N America and Europe are plunged into the freezer and the UK remains just out of range of the cold and stays damp and mild? I wouldn't bet against it!

Spectacularly average maxima for most, getting up to the dizzyingly low teens (so low it isn't even in the teens) of 12C in the south, then reaching even more insane heights of 13C in the far south while, again, most of us see temperatures around 8-11C on the warmest charts you could find.

It may well be one of those winters but frankly who knows - last time I checked it was still the first half of November.

Certainly does look now though as if we'll avoid a major cold spell, although we should manage to get a cooler, more settled spell of weather from the continent before probably turning unsettled by month's end.

In terms of the -AO loading pattern for later in the winter I think November will broadly achieve that, with high heights to the NE, a mean Aleutian trough and low heights to our west, and the strat signals are already starting to look very interesting indeed, so it remains a case of patience required.

Edited November 11, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Mucka]

A bit more amplification from GEM at 168 though still not enough. It isn't very far from forming an Icelandic high but doesn't quite push enough energy under the block to support it and cut it off.

 

 

We can also see that if  Arctic trough was to push into Scandi and link up with the shallow trough South of the UK how that would encourage stronger height rises and ridging to West of it. Not that far from a good cold pattern but unfortunately it doesn't have that much support and still needs some tweaks to be truly favourable. ie, pattern a little further West, steaper angle of WAA toward Greenland (more amplified), deeper trough through Scandi though each is connected to the other really.

 

 

Shortwaves S tip of Greenland?

I was talking about them back on the 9th.

 

GFS (p) and quite a few ensembles picking up on shortwave spoilers around Southern tip of Greenland in the mid range, they have been the demise of many a nice blocking set ups but overall the output has moved toward ECM,...

 

So it is not as if they have just appeared.

You get upset with the "shortwave" terminology every season John, your one man crusade to banish them from the meteorological lexicon is admirable but personally I think it describes disturbances within the longwave pattern quite nicely. Sometimes they only exist from one 6h frame to another and others they go on to develop into low pressure systems and I think most people understand what to look for if the location of a shortwave is mentioned.

Edited November 11, 2014 by Mucka

[knocker]

What the one shown from about 96h as a developing and deepening low coming off the eastern seaboard of Canada and USA?

 

I suspect that's the one John. It develops thus with the T1534. Courtesy WxBell