Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[Cloud 10]

GEM is today's get out of jail card

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

 

Yes indeed,get out of jail,pass go and collect £200 from the GEM this evening.

 

 

 

Also some choice cuts from the GEFS 12z ensembles.

 

 

[Robbie Garrett]

Tamara's post earlier pretty much outlines exactly where we'll head in NWP terms within the next week plus. A lessening of the -AO is almost a certainty IMO and this is based on what we've seen historically and hints within the extended ensemble suites. It's nothing to be particularly worried about however. The current N hemispheric set up has lit the torch paper so to speak. All that is required now is a bit of patience and to sit back over the next month and watch it unfold.

Will be interesting to see what the MetOffice updates bring each week.

As long as the vortex is split into two lobes with NH over the Artic/Greenland - I cannot see a repeat of last year. Although the positioning of the WAA towards Greenland could be crucial; I think if 84-120hrs verifies anything after this period at the moment being FI - the actual prognosis could be different.

4 years the models have come a very long way, so hopefully it continuous with rising heights.

I think for November - look North not East....

[Gael_Force]

Nice Spanish plume from GFS 12z

By jingo those uppers are warm and if the sun comes out the surface should be as well - shorts again!

 

Better get some sheepskin to protect the nuts if you plan on wearing shorts!

 

Surface temps look to be in single digits at that time scale.

[Captain Shortwave]

So the models at day 6 and my view

GFS

It's not too bad to be honest, there is a split over the Pole, unfortunately the output amplifies the Euro pattern unfavourably resulting in a Euro with drier and possibly milder conditions.

 

GEM

Best of the bunch in terms of the polar profile, this is seen later with drier and cooler conditions developing. Still no cold by day 10 but you can see it coming.

 

UKMO

Poor I will say, the alignment of the cross polar ridge from Siberia to Canada is a one way ticket to shifting the main lobe of the tropospheric vortex to the Canadian lobe as the cold air gets sucked into the States. Whilst no problem at this stage, I would call this the worse of the 3 solutions given today.

 

GFS Parallel

Ends up similar to the GFS op really to be honest.

 

A lot of uncertainty coming up and plenty of rain for southern and western areas too. Personally I'm starting to feel we will miss out this time. As others have mentioned the ECM ens this morning are starting to favour the Atlantic low coming out on top. 

Edited November 10, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[phil nw.]

Nice Spanish plume from GFS 12z

By jingo those uppers are warm and if the sun comes out the surface should be as well - shorts again!

Not warm enough for others i would't have thought Purga.

2M temps around 8-10C 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.gif

 

i assume it was a tongue in cheek remark rather than any reference to accuracy.

[Captain Shortwave]

Not warm enough for others i would't have thought Purga.

2M temps around 8-10C 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.gif

 

i assume it was a tongue in cheek remark rather than any reference to accuracy.

Probably right, really depends on how strong the flow would be. Light winds would quickly create a murky inversion with temperatures stuck in single figures, a moderate to strong southerly would still yield temperatures in the mid-teens. Going by that chart I would say the former was more likely. 

[Snowy L]

Yes, Nick, because it would beat that of a few years ago. Ironically, I would prefer any wave 2 activity over Greenland to be a little later in the season though, but will take whatever comes our way.

 

Is there any way of knowing where the wave breaking events take place based on the berlin charts? They only offer latitude vs height. Anyway of finding out the longitude too?

[Purga]

Not warm enough for others i would't have thought Purga.

2M temps around 8-10C 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.gif

 

i assume it was a tongue in cheek remark rather than any reference to accuracy.

Actually Phil I was being a bit IMBYish (terrible modern word I know), IF that setup were to verify we could be looking at temps maybe up to 17C down here on the south coast in the lee of the Downs - there is a microclimate here that would make it very pleasant and indeed one may be tempted to wear ones shorts - and no I'm not a postie!

Anyway it was just a bit of fun as you realised, at that range unlikely to come about.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I think a Northerly shot at this moment in time would be the only way of getting any snow. Importantly, the runs do show a lot of cold digging into Europe, which could be a crucial trigger should we get an Easterly later on in the Month of December or later. 

At the minute, hoping for cold from the East now would be like hoping for mass warmth in April. The cold uppers as opposed to warm uppers in summer are not quite there yet or ripe enough! 

Even if we don't get anything too severe yet, it means a lot to me to see the continent rapidly cooling down and sustaining very cold uppers maybe soon, which will give us something tasty to tap into. Something we never really saw all winter last year!! 

Loving that there is much more to discuss in terms of potential cold shots other than last winter, which was truly horrendous!

[Polar Maritime]

Actually Phil I was being a bit IMBYish (terrible modern word I know), IF that setup were to verify we could be looking at temps maybe up to 17C down here on the south coast in the lee of the Downs - there is a microclimate here that would make it very pleasant and indeed one may be tempted to wear ones shorts - and no I'm not a postie!

Anyway it was just a bit of fun as you realised, at that range unlikely to come about.

 

The problem is we don't all live on the South Coast, So please specify any imby reverences to avoid "tempting" any confusion in here.

 

Please continue with Model Output Discussion.

 

Many Thanks, PM

Edited November 10, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Weathizard]

Fairly good agreement at t144 between the GFS & ECM.

Height rises from the south appear to be a trend amongst the latter stages of the GFS ensemble suites, the mean up at over 1010MB, I'd take that at this stage given the rain this coming week and past few days.

(Apologies for no charts, posting from mobile)

[Banbury]

Fairly good agreement at t144 between the GFS & ECM.

Height rises from the south appear to be a trend amongst the latter stages of the GFS ensemble suites, the mean up at over 1010MB, I'd take that at this stage given the rain this coming week and past few days.

(Apologies for no charts, posting from mobile)

 

ECM  http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014111012/ECH1-144.GIF?10-0

 

GFS  http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014111012/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

[Nouska]

Not warm enough for others i would't have thought Purga.

2M temps around 8-10C 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.gif

 

i assume it was a tongue in cheek remark rather than any reference to accuracy.

 

Yes, Phil - the ECM epsgram for Reading also suggests daytime temperature around 8c at the nine to ten day period. It will probably change as time progressses but I doubt it will feel like shorts weather.

 

http://i.imgur.com/AF5qCoG.gif

[Banbury]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014111012/ECH1-192.GIF?10-0

 

Might have to settle for HP sat over the UK, still better than raging SWlies and will feel very seasonal

Edited November 10, 2014 by Banbury

[bluearmy]

interestingly, despite being told by some that the raging cold upstream would give rise to a succession of depressions bearing down upon us, they do seem to be disrupting quite tamely from the modelling i'm looking at.  thats not a bad theme for november if we can get it to repeat through the season

Edited November 10, 2014 by bluearmy

[nick sussex]

I think the mice have got into the ECM computer this evening. Very messy and unconvincing past T144hrs , generally the models do agree on the split PV but that's as far as it goes and they seem to be unable to agree with what happens between those PV chunks.

[Banbury]

interestingly, despite being told by some that the raging cold upstream would give rise to a succession of depressions bearing down upon us, they do seem to be disrupting quite tamely from the modelling i'm looking at.  thats not a bad theme for november if we can get it to repeat through the season

 

Couldn't agree more, decent enough for November

[MR EXTREMES]

Actually Phil I was being a bit IMBYish (terrible modern word I know), IF that setup were to verify we could be looking at temps maybe up to 17C down here on the south coast in the lee of the Downs - there is a microclimate here that would make it very pleasant and indeed one may be tempted to wear ones shorts - and no I'm not a postie!

Anyway it was just a bit of fun as you realised, at that range unlikely to come about.

Well I live on the south coast portsmouth!

And I can assure you now it won't be warm enough for shorts because that will be gone tomorrow.

Anyway nice to see you picked out a chart that shows just one part of a bigger picture.

Can't post any charts as I'm on my phone.

But the over all hemispheric picture continues broadly the same as recent days.

Easterly of sorts looks to be still there with variety of closer options like se flow.

But over the pole looks very exciting moving on towards dec could well be a special.

Good nite for models can't wait for December Arctic flow then north easterly. Or settled cold and frosty either way the strat not even started yet more to come hold on the roller coaster has started.

[nick sussex]

At T240hrs the ECM wants to start off on another journey to build pressure near Greenland. With so much energy digging south into the Atlantic and still a good looking NH set up it still looks like a slow burner. Hopefully someone doesn't extinguish the flame before its delivered something. I do get the feeling this is like one of those very long films with a lot of plot twists, hopefully we end up with the sledges and earmuffs ending rather than the, is that it let down!

[Barry12]

Disappointing from the models this afternoon, the GEM is good, but the GEM's useless and it will never come of.

[492]

A much more plausible looking senario from ECMWF this evening past T+144 with an eventual NE drift and chilly conditions which could possibly last several days. 

[blizzard81]

At T240hrs the ECM wants to start off on another journey to build pressure near Greenland. With so much energy digging south into the Atlantic and still a good looking NH set up it still looks like a slow burner. Hopefully someone doesn't extinguish the flame before its delivered something. I do get the feeling this is like one of those very long films with a lot of plot twists, hopefully we end up with the sledges and earmuffs ending rather than the, is that it let down!

That's a fantastic way to explain the ECM tonight Nick. I find the wording in your posts very entertaining. I agree, the ECM looks messy post 144hrs.

[A.J]

Disappointing from the models this afternoon, the GEM is good, but the GEM's useless and it will never come of.

can you elaborate please, and can you explain why the GEM model output is useless as I'm sure the less learned visiting this thread gained absolutely nothing by reading your post.....many thanks

[mushymanrob]

I think the mice have got into the ECM computer this evening. Very messy and unconvincing past T144hrs , generally the models do agree on the split PV but that's as far as it goes and they seem to be unable to agree with what happens between those PV chunks.

Tbh nick, the ecm has a habit of doing that over the past few months. Several times this summer its posted an unconvinving, unsmooth evolution only to drop it later. This has played a part in my scepticism regarding a possible cold spell.

Whilst im thinking of it, why is the gfs 18z called the pub run? Thought it was released in america being an american model. It wouldnt be around midday there...

[MR EXTREMES]

Heights over the uk is not such a bad thing intact it's a good start to bottling up cold and then retrogression to a more favourable area.

Or even a omega block seen cold developed from this type of set up.

So all in all up to t144 it's all pretty good beyond the models are not sure